She wins for this new listing in Norco ( I should cut her some slack as it is a new listing, but I'm having a bad night, so poor hilary gets it).
Thursday, January 31, 2008
She wins for this new listing in Norco ( I should cut her some slack as it is a new listing, but I'm having a bad night, so poor hilary gets it).
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
Just down the street is 7285 Ayers Rock RD, this one is a short sale. This home is a small 3 bedroom, 2 bath home just over 1000 s/f. The current bag holder bought it in 2005 for $325k. It's listed as a short sale for $260k. It's cheap but compared to home one it's no deal.
Home 3 is 11250 Mathilda LN, its a 4 bedroom, 3.5 bath home. It has 1728 sq/ft and sits on a teeny weeny wee lot of 3500 sq/ft. it was purchased in 98 for $122k, the original owner paid $138k in 94. It's currently listed for $285k. (started at $375k in Sept 07)
The price per sq/ft is still very high on these homes even though they are under $300k. The good news is there are now some decent homes under 300 in this area. 2 months ago that was not the case, there was nothing decent listed under 300.
Looking at another NAR chart on Price to Income ratio's we can see that this ratio stays between 2 and 3 from 1980 all the way through late 2002. After 2003 the ratio goes parabolic, jumping to nearly 6x by late 2005. I believe it's closer to 7 or 8 now! If we go back and use this traditional measure of what a home should cost we once again come up with a number close to $150k. Riverside currently has a median price of about $360k putting it about 240% above the $150k number I keep coming up with. Even if I use the higher $225k number, prices are still 160% overpriced. In other words, to fall back to traditional values homes would need to decline 60% to hit the $150k number or 40% to get to the higher $225k number
And if it's not clear enough yet that home prices are WAY out of whack, take a look at the last graph.
Don't think the prices will fall that far? I'm not convinced myself that we will ever see the median under $200k again. However, some of the Northern California counties have already fallen into the mid $200s The difference between us and them? The price declines started in Late 2005 in Northern California. They have over a year head start, but we are catching up fast! Riverside's median has fallen nearly 20% in only 6 months (housingtracker.com)
RIVERSIDE –Riverside County foreclosures increased more than 50 percent last month – and more than 300 percent compared to a year ago .
6,821 filings of mortgage default notices (NODs), auction sale notice (NOTs) and bank repossessions were recorded in the county in December, according to RealtyTrac. That’s a 55 percent increase over the 4,399 foreclosure filings reported in Riverside County during November.California recorded a total of 53,292 filings in December, a 33 percent increase over November.
Realtytrac reported a total of 481,392 properties, or approx 1.9 percent of households, had gone through a foreclosure action of some kind, RealtyTrac said. That was a 238 percent increase over 2006.
In Riverside County, approx 1 in 100 households received some form of foreclosure notice in December, the third highest number in the state. A big jump from November when 1 in 159 households got one. The county's foreclosure rate was up 302 percent from last year’s level of 1,698 filings, per RealtyTrac.
SAN BERNARDINO- Lenders filed close to 24,000 notices of default in 2007, up nearly 150% from 2006. 7,727 homeowners lost their homes through up nearly 720% from the previous year, according to DataQuick Information Systems.
During the real estate bubble prices of resale homes soared more than 167% from 2000 to 2005, according to DataQuick. But the mortgage meltdown alond with affordability problems and overbuilding have forced the housing market into a full correction.
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
Last month I took a peak at the SCPGA golf community in Beaumont. This master planned community was tanking BAD. If you remember I listed homes under $300k, $300-350k and 350-400k.
Last month there were 7 under $300k, the price leader was $259k.
This month there are 20 at $300k or below. The price leader is ,
In the 300k to 350 there were 13 last month
This month we have 10, I suspect a few of them dropped into the under 300 category.
In the 350-400 range we had 17 last month
This month that number is down to 12.
So, we can see the total number of homes under $400k is close. There are 5 more homes total this month that are priced under $400k. But the obvious change is that the homes are falling into lower price ranges. The ranges above 300k both lost homes but the under 300k range increased by 275% in a month.
Monday, January 28, 2008
What Median Home Prices Would Look Like If the Bubble Never Happened
How much should you be paying for a home? The answer is easy to calculate if you understand the connection between median home prices and median incomes.
Historically, median home prices and median incomes have always shared a close relationship. From the mid-1970s to 2001, the historical ratio of median housing value vs. median household income was consistently between 2.6 and 3.0.
What this essentially means is that median home prices were (on average) 2.8x the median household income for the last 30 years. Using this 2.8 formula, it is very easy to estimate what median home prices would be if the most recent bubble never happened.
Median Home Prices by Region
|Region||Current Median*||What the Median Should Be||% Difference|
Using the 2.8 formula, it is clear that local bubbles aren't the problem. Median home prices are inflated in every U.S. region. In the West, where the median household income is $52,249, median home prices are more than double what they should be. The situation is similar in the Northeast, where the median household income is $52,057.
Median home prices are not quite as high in the South and the Midwest, where median household incomes are $43,884 and $47,836 respectively. Even so, prices are still 30 percent higher than what they should be in the South and 16 percent higher than what they should be in the Midwest.
California Median Home Prices
|Current Median*||What the Median Should Be||% Difference|
The result is that home prices are 61 percent higher than they should be given California's media household income of $56,645. In some areas of the state, such as San Francisco and Oakland, median home prices are so inflated that they are more than 11 times the median household income.
Sunday, January 27, 2008
Thursday, January 24, 2008
In that post our delusional seller listed a home for a million when an identical floor plan 2 homes away was listed for $589k. That was obviously an insane thing to do but this new listing is astounding in it's stupidity. It's black hole stupid, stupid so massive that not even light can escape.
The Realtart is SHAHID JALAL, GOLD TEAM REAL ESTATE. I think Shahid needs to check what he is putting into his hooka. I might have to email this tool and ask him if I can get some of his weed. It's obviously some prime stuff.
Wednesday, January 23, 2008
The home was built in 2002 and it looks like it sold for $645k. One year later it sells for $849k. In march of last year it sells for 1.325 million. This must be a first payment default because the bank got it back only 9 months later. The primary lender was into it for $809K, I will assume the 2nd lost everything (over $500k). It is currently listed by the bank for....drumroll...... $749K!. That is a loss of $576k in less than a year. I think they will sell this, heck they might even get over asking. If I had the money and the wife would live down there I might fire off an offer on this one.
Tuesday, January 22, 2008
I found a sale of one of the properties I had been watching on Realtybid.com. This home is up in the Bridle Creek development in Riverside. It was a bank owned home that they took back last Sept. They have been trying to unload it ever since. They started out at $899 and dropped the price again and again. It is currently listed for $609k. The bank is into it for $720k.
It was auctioned off on Realtybid.com last week. The winning bid appears to be $539k. To me that still seems a bit much for this particular property. It has ZERO landscaping and there are several other similar properties in the development for sale around $600k. I would think that he could have worked a better deal by getting the other properties to fight for the sale. No matter, $539k if it closes will be a step in the right direction. That home sold new in June 05 for $779k. So that is a $240k haircut or a 31% drop from the 05 price. Compared to the prices of the other homes this looks like a good buy. Looking at foreclosure.com shows me that there are a lot more of these homes going to be REOs later this year. I think that home has another $100K to go down. I'm thinking these will bottom out in the mid $400s.
I did a search by price to see what was available for under $400k. Surprisingly enough I found over 60 homes priced under $400k. I then searched under $375k and found that 7 of those were under $375k. I tried $350, but I struck out at that price. It seems our price leaders are in the high 300's.
The lowest price per sq/ft that I was able to find was $116 sq/ft. I found another 3 under $120 sq/ft. Most of the lower priced units were in the $130s to $140s sq/ft.
Here's a couple of the sq/ft leaders in Eastvale.
Purchase Price $560k in 2/05
Asking price $449k m($116 sq/ft)
Total loss $110k plus fees and holding costs for 2 years.
5 bed/5 bath
Purchase price Approx $620k (mid 06)
Asking price $450K ($118 sq/ft)
Total loss $170k plus fees and holding costs
You get two to choose from as 14335 is also for sale. Same home, same price.
The latest reports from DataQuick,
A total of 25,585 new and resale houses and condos were sold statewide last month. That's virtually unchanged from 25,578 for November, and down 41.1 percent from 43,431 for November 2006. Last month's sales made for the slowest December in DataQuick's records, which go back to 1988. On a year-over-year basis, sales have declined the last 27 months.
The median price paid for a home last month was $402,000, down 2.9 percent from $414,000 for the month before, and down 14.8 percent from $472,000 for December a year ago. The median peaked last March/April/May at $484,000. In December 2007 a total of 17,500 California homes were purchased with a "conforming" loan up to $417,000. That was down 29.8 percent from 24,913 for the same month a year earlier. Last month a total of 4,600 California homes were purchased with a "jumbo" loan of more than $417,000. That was down 69.8 percent from 15,227 for December 2006.
The typical mortgage payment that home buyers committed themselves to paying last month was $1,878. That was down from $1,951 in November, and down from $2,160 for December a year ago. They are 23.5 percent below the current cycle's peak in June last year.
Foreclosures on the rise
The number of mortgage default notices filed against California homeowners jumped last quarter to its highest level in more than fifteen years, a real estate information service reported.
Lending institutions sent homeowners 81,550 default notices during the October-to-December period. That was up by 12.4 percent from 72,571 the previous quarter, and up 114.6 percent from 37,994 for fourth-quarter 2006, according to DataQuick Information Systems.
Last quarter's number of defaults was the highest in DataQuick's statistics, which go back to 1992.
The median price paid for a California home peaked at $484,000 last March and declined to $402,000 by the end of 2007. Most of the loans that went into default last quarter were originated between August 2005 and October 2006. The median age was 22 months, up from 15 a year earlier, indicating that the pool of at-risk home loans is getting larger.
Last quarter's default numbers were a record in 42 of the state's 58 counties. In Los Angeles County it was 63.5 percent of the first-quarter 1996 peak.
On a loan-by-loan basis, mortgages were least likely to go into default in San Francisco, Marin, and San Mateo counties. The likelihood was highest in Merced, San Joaquin and Stanislaus counties.
Of the homeowners in default, an estimated 41 percent emerge from the foreclosure process by bringing their payments current, refinancing, or selling the home and paying off what they owe. A year ago it was about 71 percent. The increased portion of homes lost to foreclosure reflects the slow real estate market, as well as the number of homes bought during the height of the market with multiple-loan financing, which makes 'work-outs' difficult.
Trustees Deeds recorded, or the actual loss of a home to foreclosure, totaled 31,676 during the fourth quarter. That's the highest since DataQuick began tracking Trustees Deeds in 1988. Last quarter's total rose 30.8 percent from 24,209 in the previous quarter, and jumped 421.2 percent from 6,078 in fourth quarter 2006. In the last real estate cycle, Trustees Deeds peaked at 15,418 in third-quarter 1996. The all-time low was 637 in the second quarter of 2005.
County/Region...2006Q4… 2007Q4… %Chg
Monday, January 21, 2008
Anyone else think the stock market is gonna implode tomorrow?
Yesterday stock markets around the world took a beating. The Nikkei was down about 4% yesterday and as of right now it's down another 512 pts or nearly 4%. The European markets did not fair any better nor did the rest of the Pacific markets.
The futures for the Dow are down 546 pts. It's going to be an interesting day on Wall Street on Tuesday. Thankfully I've pulled nearly all of my money out of stocks for the time being.
Looking back over 2006 and 2007 listings I see the trend seems to be that an average of 1000 homes per month gets added to the inventory through late summer. The peak inventory from the last couple of years happened in late summer (Sept/Oct). If that trend holds for this year by late summer there will be roughly 42,000 homes on the market come late summer. I suppose that homes could start selling again, reducing that number. What is far more likely to happen is that a deteriorating economy will slow the sales even further. The peak mortgage defaults go through Oct of this year and the process of foreclosing on those homes takes another 9 months. I’m thinking we might hit 50,000 homes by the end of this year
Looking at the homes hitting the market, it’s painfully obvious that most people still think they can get 2005 prices. 90% of the homes I see have zero chance of selling at the price they are listed. Some of the banks are getting more aggressive with the pricing while others are still listing high. With the inventory climbing, the sales numbers continuing to drag along the bottom and financing hard to come by, you have to think the prices will continue to plummet.
Friday, January 18, 2008
'WOW' Just Reduced $60K! Better hurry over and take a look. Nice home in a quiet area of Riverside close to La Sierra University and Tyler Mall. Property has had some upgrades done. Large Loft area makes a nice family room or a fourth bedroom and there is a office with beautiful hardwood floors too. Owners need to move as soon as possible! With a large yard for out door entertaining, a 2 car garage, formal livingroom & diningroom a cozy fireplace make this 3 BR, 3 Bath, 2,230 sq. ft. a great investment and a nice place to call home! Close to new homes and a school . what more could you want. .. .
I just don't know where to start on this listing. The actual text is not too bad. But, "hurry over and take a look"? You better get a tetanus shot first. The carpet held together with tape in the living room is a nice touch, there also appears to be a patch on that bedroom wall. Many upgrades done? Well, you certainly missed them when you snapped the pics cuz that place is a freaking wreck. You also get a formal livingroom (what about the bride?) and a diningroom (sure hope he doesn't eat too much). A great investment.... yea, just like Enron or New Century was. What more could you want? Oh, where do I start.
Now for the Creme-de-la-creme, La piece de resistance. Check out the picture of the outside of the house.
It did not start out so well priced though. Our owner did try to get top dollar at first. It listed in October 07 for $520K and by last week he was still trying to get $399k. But his last price drop to $326k brings him back into the normal range one would expect this home to be selling for. Since he only paid $239k for this home, he has obviously squeezed some equity out of it. If the bank is willing to take that price I think this guy has a chance. He is currently one of the lowest priced homes in the area.
This is the first sub $350k home I've found in Victoria Grove. There are a few in the High 300s in addition to this home.
Being the lowest priced home in the development this probably has a fair chance of finding a buyer. At $122 sq/ft it's also one of the lowest priced homes in the area on a $/per square foot basis.
Tuesday, January 15, 2008
|As Listed on Trulia.com||1/15/2008|
|Total # Houses Listed for Sale||Listings in Foreclosure||% of Listings in Foreclosure|
|Huntington Beac h||661||200||30.3%|
|Rancho Palos Ve rdes||91||26||28.6%|
|El Segundo||25||4||1 6.0%|
|Marina Del Rey||251||27||10.8%|
|Playa Del Rey||78||7||9.0%|
|OTHER US CITIES|
|Las Vegas, NV||19,207||10,020||52.2%|
|Salt Lake City, UT||1,372||324||23.6%|
|Fort Walton Bea ch, FL||528||74||14.0%|
|San Antonio, TX||8,008||529||6.6%|
|Happy Valley, O R||97||1||1.0%|
|West Linn, OR||142||1||0.7%|
|Lake Oswego, OR||218||-||0.0%|
Our most recent purchase is 1645 MONTE MAR ST, Corona, CA 92881, This 3486 sq/ft 5 bedroom home was purchased Feb 06 for $913K. This gave the original owner a healthy profit of $439k (less fees) in only 2 1/2 years. Yea, no bubble here! After only a couple of years the current owner has decided to sell and is seeking $999k. Looks like he did not get the memo about the bubble popping. (sorry no pics yet). This is another Realtard that just listed this home when there is an identical model home around the corner listed 30% less. WTF??
Just around the corner but on a better lot is 3940 Via Miguel ST, Same house but on a better lot (no house behind) and it has a nice canyon view. The back yard is well landscaped and it has a pool and hot tub. This guy picked up his home in June 05 for $850k. This gave the original owner a payday of $370k in just 17 months. He has listed his home for the ambitious price of $860k.
The problem for the first two homes is an original owner at 1686 Anacapa CRK. This home has the best lot of the three. It sits on a cul-de-sac with a nice canyon view out the back. The back yard does not have a pool but it's nice with a bbq, fire pit and patio. This guy only paid $450k back in 03. He should have plenty of equity unless he refi'd and cashed it all out. He missed the big paydays the first two original owners got but if he can get his $699k asking price he still stands to make a healthy profit. Obviously the first two have no chance of selling with this home priced $300k and $250k less than the other 2. Sadly this home has almost no chance of selling either. There are similar homes nearby for far less. I think this home will need to come down another$150k to $200k before it has a chance.
Just for kicks lets take a look at what you would need to buy this home at it's current price and using traditional lending standards.
Price: ...................... $699,000
Down payment needed... $140,000
Required income.......... $175,000/yr (yea, the IE is full of couples making $175k/yr)
financing $560k 30 yrs at 7% (ave jumbo rate) = $3725/mo
Taxes in this home 1.8%, 12,600/yr .............$1050/mo
Total monthly payment would be approx $4975. Which is fine I guess if you are making $175k/yr. Even at that level of income this home would eat up a large portion of their take home pay though.
* Housing Tracker does not track the entire county. These numbers are for the following areas, Arlington, Bloomington, Box Springs, Canyon Crest, Casa Blanca, Colton, Corona, Crestmore, Fontana, Grand Terrace, Jurupa, La Sierra, Mira Loma, Moreno Valley, Norco, Perris, Rubidoux, and Woodcrest
Here is the latest report from DataQuick with the numbers for the entire county.
La Jolla,CA----The remarkably low level of home sales in Southern California persisted last month as sellers, buyers and lending institutions continued to hold their collective breath amid market turmoil.
A total of 13,240 new and resale houses and condos were sold in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties in December. That was up 0.5 percent from 13,173 for the previous month, and down 45.3 percent from 24,209 for December last year, according to DataQuick Information Systems.
Last month's sales were by far the lowest for any December in DataQuick's statistics, which go back to 1988. The sales count was 23.5 percent below the previous December low of 17,272 in 1990. The average December over the past 20 years is 25,543, the all-time peak for the month was reached in 2003 when 36,865 homes were sold.
"It looks like anybody who can, is waiting this thing out. Which of course means that the activity we are seeing right now is largely stressed and atypical. Today's numbers form a lousy basis for trending and forecasting. We're in the midst of turbulence and we won't know what really has been going on until things have settled down and we can look back," said Marshall Prentice, DataQuick president.
The median price paid for a Southland home was $425,000 last month, the lowest since $420,000 in February 2005. Last month's median was down 2.4 percent from November's $435,000, and 13.3 percent below $490,000 for December 2006.
Last month's median was 15.8 percent below the $505,000 peak reached last spring and summer. While the steep decline in median sales price does reflect a drop in prices, it also reflects significant shifts in the types of homes selling. Particularly noticeable is a drop-off in sales of more expensive homes financed with "jumbo" mortgages.
Since the credit crunch hit in August, these loans for over $417,000 have become more expensive and harder to obtain. Sales financed with jumbo loans represented about 22 percent of Southland transactions last month, down from nearly 40 percent before the credit crunch.
The median price paid for a home financed with a conforming loan was $386,250 in December, down 4.6 percent from $405,000 a year ago, and down 5.8 percent from the $410,000 peak reached in March and April of 2007.
The typical monthly mortgage payment that Southland buyers committed themselves to paying was $1,985 last month, down from $2,049 the previous month, and down from $2,242 a year ago. Adjusted for inflation, the current payment is 6.9 percent lower than the spring of 1989, the peak of the prior real estate cycle. It is 21.2 percent below the current cycle's peak in June 2006.
Indicators of market distress continue to move in different directions. Foreclosure activity is at record levels, financing with adjustable-rate mortgages or with multiple mortgages has dropped sharply. Down payment sizes and flipping rates are stable, non-owner occupied buying activity is edging up, DataQuick reported.
...........Dec 06...Dec 07 ...Chg ...Median 06...Median 07 ...Change
San Berdu...3,357 ...1,518...-54.8%..$370,000....$315,000...-14.9%
San Diego...3,823 ...2,468...-35.4%..$495,000....$430,000...-13.1%
Orange co..2,985 ...1,731...-42.0%..$630,000....$565,000...-10.3%
...LA.... ..8,479 ...4,430...-47.8%..$525,000....$470,000...-10.5%
Monday, January 14, 2008
Here are some of the low price leaders,
These homes would probably rent in the $2000/mo to $2500/mo range. That puts there "value" in the $240k to $300k range using a rent multiplier of 120. These are not the only homes in the $120 sq/ft range. I found over a dozen using a search for homes over 2500 sq/ft that were under $425k. There are probably many more of them that did not fall into my search criteria. I will take another look in a few months to see if we can't find some under that magic $100 sq/ft barrier.
I did find one home at $69 sq/ft but it's a freakin wreck out in Quail Valley and it's probably not worth $40 sq/ft. 23581 La Bertha LN Quail Valley, CA 92587.
Sunday, January 13, 2008
14407 Four Winds DR Riverside, CA 92503, MLS#I08004338
I ran across this while perusing Redfin this evening. This home is really funky looking from the pic. It looks like it might be built into a hillside with the garage on the bottom and the living area above. It's 3013 sq/ft and has 3 bedrooms and two baths. It says it was built in 2005. It sold in Feb 06 for $625k. Another sale is recorded in July 07 for $624,517. I'm guessing that would be the bank getting it back. It's now listed for $264,900! I almost think this is a typo 624...264? I also found it listed on Movoto for the same price. If this is the real price that would be a fall of 58% ($361k) from the 06 sales price. And that would put this home close to where it should be. $264k is probably still a little high considering the area. If anyone has driven through this area they will know what a mess it is. It's a bunch of tiny twisting roads that are a nightmare to navigate. Now, while I think this home is price close to where it should be, I'm more inclined to think this is a typo.
Here's a perfect example.
Here is the Realtard description,
HOME IS 2268 SQ. FOUR BEDROOMS, 3 BATHROOMS, FAMILY ROOM, AND BIG BONES ROOM, FLOOR HAS JUST BEEN UPGRADED, HOME IS IN MOVE IN CONDITION. SELLER NEEDS TO SELL , AND WILL CONSIDER OFFERS.
What the hell is a Big Bones Room? By the way this is the only picture listed. If after 100 days your realtor can only manage to post one picture of your house DUMP HIM!
What kind of offers can they expect? Well, judging by the competition LOW ones. 15756 Flamingo DR is just around the corner and is the same model home (2268 sq/ft). It is currently listed for $309K. This house sold for $450k in Feb of 06 (Probably made the Mustsellers think they were getting a helluva deal a year later and $20K cheaper).
Unfortunately for the Mustsellers the news gets worse. 11640 ROBIN DR is also for sale just around the corner. It's also the same model home. It was purchased Dec 06 for $437k but it's for sale now for $280k. That is 40% less than the poor Mustsellers are asking.
Judging by the competition the poor Mustsellers can expect offers in the mid to high $200s. That's gonna make them cry in their Cheerios.
Thursday, January 10, 2008
I know, there are a lot of overpriced homes. Why is this guy so deserved of the award? Well.....lemme tell ya.
You see exactly two houses away (one house between them) sits 8748 Gentle Wind DR, It's the exact same model as the crackheads above. However there is a whopping $410,100 difference in the price of the two homes. That's right it's only 59% of the price of 8772. You may think it's a fluke but no, there are two other homes nearby of similar size listed in the mid 600's.
Now to be fair there is another crackhead on this street (well several actually) that must share the award. Across the street and a few houses down is 8835 Gentle Wind. This home is slightly larger but only 4 bedrooms. It says its professionally landscaped but so far no pics. It also just listed today but for an amazing 1.1 Million.
So why does he have to share the award. Well, just like the first baffoon, the home two doors down ( 8859 GENTLE WIND DR) which as been for sale for 229 days is listed for $665k. that's only 60% of the price of 8835. That's $435k less. You can buy a lot of landscaping for $435k! (and it does need some).
I think we should call the Hazmat Squad. There is obviously a carbon monoxide leak somewhere on this street. Maybe one of the other houses is being used to cook meth or grow weed and the vapors are affecting the neighbors. What ever the reason I just cannot understand how you can list a home for those prices when you have the lower priced homes basically next door.
Tuesday, January 8, 2008
The amazing thing about this chart is if you look at how many REO's there are each month and compare that to the monthly sales you can see that they are getting closer. Soon banks will be taking more homes back per month than there are sales.
Please stop asking if there any way we will hit bottom this year? The answer is NO, NO, NO! There are just way too many factors working against this market for it to stop imploding. Here’s just a few of the reasons we are in for another rough year (well, rough for some but not for us potential buyers).
1. There’s that small foreclosure problem. There are still a bazillion subprime loans facing resets over the next year. Not to mention the Alt-a and prime loans that are in the same boat. Most of these homes will go back to the banks and end up for sale as REOs.
2. The subprime market has vanished making it nearly impossible for low income families to purchase homes. Subprime loans have gone the way of the VCR. Just try to find a subprime lender these days, especially in Ca. This will put tremendous pressure on the low end of the market. People with decent salaries and good credit are not going to buy in Subprimeville. The poorer areas will seize up until prices make it attractive for investors who will then buy up the properties as rentals. Right now prices are way out of whack with rents so the investors are not even looking yet.
3. Getting Prime loans is harder than ever. Banks have labeled California as a declining market. They are requiring larger down payments to cover the value of the home in case it decreases ( I think they mean WHEN it decreases). Most Americans are up to their lip implants in debt. Scraping together a 20% down on a $500K home is no easy task. I sure can’t conjure up $100k. FHA is probably the way most folks will get into a home in the coming years. So the homes need to be under the FHA limit.
4. With the demise of Subprime and Alt A loans getting harder and harder to get, good old fashioned lending standards will return. Meaning, homes will have to be…what’s the word I’m looking for….Oh Yea, they have to be AFFORDABLE. Homes that are 5X or 8X someone’s income are not affordable. Since that’s just about every house unless you happen to make $300k a year, they will obviously need to come down in price.
5. The oversupply of homes continue to put downward pressure on prices. You cannot have a 2 or 3 year supply of homes and expect prices to remain flat. Until that inventory is worked off prices will continue to fall. Foreclosures continue to add inventory at record rates. In addition home builders are continuing to build new homes adding to an already bloated supply. In some cases they will just stop but in others it makes more sense financially to just build out the remaining homes.
6. Inflation is reducing the purchasing power of the buyers. I know the Gobment keeps telling us that inflation is at record lows, but us poor worker bees know the truth. Gas is $75 a tank full, a lunch at Quiznos is $8, a dozen Titliest cost 50 freakin dollars, a gallon of milk is like $4, etc etc etc. Real inflation is probably 8% to 10% regardless of what JW would like me to believe.
7. Consumption is starting to decline indicating the consumer (that’s us) is spending less. When people spend less other people lose their jobs this feeds back on itself and the result is recession. Auto mfrs and dealers are already seeing this. Furniture stores and electronic stores are starting to feel it. Any one notice Levitz is going out of business? Circuit City is hurting so is Home Depot and Lowes. If it gets ugly we will see many of the businesses that cater to discretionary spending go under. All those little golf shops, boutiques, pet spas, paintball shops, pool builders etc will vanish. Plenty of places will do fine. We will still need our haircuts, food, medical supplies and of course bars will do more business than ever. Beer consumption always goes up during a recession. Also credit card defaults are starting to rise. I saw a report that said the average American has almost $12k in credit card dept. YIKES!
8. Job losses are building. Again, the numbers thrown out by the government don’t fully reflect this but it is happening. Actually the last report was bad, much worse than it should have been for a December as the employment usually goes up due to the extra help stores need over the holidays. Many of the trades being affected by the housing bust do not show up in the employment numbers. Most construction workers are independent or under the table. We could lose a million construction workers and the employment report would not show it. It’s not just construction workers, it’s anyone that is tied to construction directly or indirectly. You might be the secretary for an executive at a lumber mill in Podunk NorCal and you could lose your job. You might drive a cement truck, or work in the building permit dept at for the local city or drive a roach coach that goes to construction sites. As you can see the threads of construction knit a very large sweater. If you start pulling too many of them you can quickly wind up with a big mess.
9. The secret is out. Joe Q Public has read the paper, seen the news reports or talked with some crazy internet blogger and is concerned about the housing market and the economy. Until the public perception turns around it will be hard to move houses.
10. Sales will remain sluggish because most of the buyers are on the internet reading bubble blogs. Well, the smart ones are anyway.
For the quarter ended Nov. 30, the company posted a loss of $772.7 million, or $9.99 per share, compared with a loss of $49.6 million, or 64 cents per share, in the year-ago period.
KB Home said the revenue decline was due largely to a 22 percent drop in new home deliveries, which fell to 8,132 compared to 10,386 in the same quarter of 2006.
The average selling price of the company's homes also slipped, down 12 percent to $247,800 from $280,000 in the fourth quarter of 2006.
The company's backlog of orders for new homes -- a key indicator of potential for future revenue -- fell 40 percent during the quarter. Its backlog as of Nov. 30 stood at 6,322 units, down from 10,575 units as of the same date in 2006.
Net orders fell 32 percent to 2,574 from 3,763 orders in the same quarter of 2006.
The order cancellation rate during the quarter was 58 percent, unchanged compared to the same quarter in 2006 but up from 50 percent in the third quarter
Monday, January 7, 2008
This one did, I was laughing so hard I shot Scotch out my nose (and let me tell ya, that does not feel good!). Now it's not just the price, but it's laughable too. It's the home itself. The poor realtor does his best with a description right out of "The realtor's how to write a listing" book. Check this out...
9849 Farmington ST Oak Hills, CA 92344
"This truly unique 2 story estate is a treasure amid the rolling hills of the summit estates. Charming details lovingly adorn this home from corner to corner with a daring, yet culturally artistic style. Come visit this personaluty enriched home today."
Unique.....check, yup it's not every day you find a house with a bright green roof.
Treasure...Hmmm, I don't know, it's rare and all but a treasure might be reaching a bit.
Charming Details.... Check, those are obviously the little houses on the wall of the stairs
Daring...Double Check, Painting your kitchen fire engine red and topping it off with black counters in "Monster House" daring.
Culturally Artistic.... I don't think so, unless you are into Christo or some other wackjob that likes to wrap islands in pink plastic wrap
Personaluty?.... (We have our require realtor misspelling). Check, I guess. It does have personality, but then again so does Charles Manson. It's just not a good personality.
Where, pray tell do you even find roof tiles that color? I hope for the sake of all that is good that he painted those and there isn't actually a company making Kermit Green roof tiles.
The red freakin cabinets would have been bad enough on their own. We must however give him 20 bonus points for the rust colored tiles. That is a combo I could not have imagined in my wildest nightmares.
What happened here, this wall color is actually quite normal. No problem, just put up a crap-load of little wooden houses.
Sorry, about this post.........Way too much scotch tonight.
Sunday, January 6, 2008
That is a whopping 48.3% decline.
This tract currently has 10 homes for sale under $400k. Most of them are smaller than our turkey and they are on smaller lots. So the price declines are not as impressive. Most of them sold new in the high 400s to high 500s so the price declines are running closer to 30%.
It was looking like the banks were getting the hang of this REO problem. But then today I ran across this listing.
Now the reason I'm a little confused by this listing is that there is another REO of the same model in this tract. That home, 17008 Birch Hill RD has been for sale since July. It started out at $699 if I remember right and they've been lowering it ever since. It's down to $529k after sitting at $545k for over a month. This home has some landscaping done, including a patio slab and BBQ. It also sits on a larger lot at 1.21 acres. So if they cannot sell this home at $529k how did the other bank figure they had a chance at $85k more.
A couple of months ago in this tract there was only one home under $700k. That home was our REO here on Birch Hill Rd. Today there are 12 homes under $700k, and of those 9 are under $650 with our REO as the prices leader at $529k. I betting on these hitting $400k in a year or two. So far these price leaders are only down about 20% to 30% below the price paid from the builder.
Saturday, January 5, 2008
Today I noticed a home I had looked at previously had come way down in price.
Now what about those dueling neighbors. The first upset neighbor is right across the street at 200 Crossrail LN. They bought the same model new in early 2005 and paid 1 million. They have put in a spectacular pool and the back yard is party ready. The home though does not look any nicer than the first one. These are both high end homes with very nice interiors. This guy listed his 5 months ago for the staggering price of 1.675 million! Here's his dream slipping away.
Price Reduced: 08/27/07 -- $1,675,000 to $1,495,000
Price Reduced: 09/24/07 -- $1,495,000 to $1,395,000
Price Reduced: 11/14/07 -- $1,395,000 to $1,345,000
Price Reduced: 12/05/07 -- $1,345,000 to $1,275,000
After what his neighbor has done his dream must have turned into a nightmare by now. Getting undercut by $425k can't help you sleep at night.
But wait 200 Crossrail is not the only upset seller in this tract. Just around the corner and only about 5 homes away we have 1492 ANDALUSIAN DR (same model home). This guy listed two months ago for 1.5 million. He is currently down to 1.25 million. Just $400K more than home one. He does have some very nice landscaping in the front but no pictures of the back yard so I will assume it's not very impressive. Th inside of this home does not look as highly upgraded as the first two. There's way more carpet and less tile work and the master bathroom looks rather basic. So this guy is doubly screwed
There are two other dreamers trying to sell the same model home in this tract. Both of those homes have been featured before. 170 Friesian ST is currently asking 1.348 Million and the biggest dreamer of them all is 159 Friesian ST who is asking 1.4 million for a home with dirt in the front and the back yards.
Is 209 Cross Rail a deal at $850k? Compared to the other 4 similar homes currently on the market it is. At $150 sq/ft this home appears to be priced well. Is this home a short sale? The listing does not indicate that this is a short sale but it's hard to believe the home owner would be so quick to throw away that $400k. Most people would hold out for as long as possible if it was their own $400k. Regardless if whether it's a short sale or not, they are obviously not selling at the higher prices. This home might be worth $850k. It's interior looks high end, it's big and on a big lot and it has golf course frontage. I almost think this is a good deal if you are in the market for a 5659 sq/ft palace.