A picure is worth a thousand words.......

Here's a picture!


The IE median price is down 59.9% from peak! Fill in the other 990 words yourself.

From the "what were ya thinking" files

If you were even only slightly paying attention you should have been aware of the bubble popping sometime in early 07. By then the sales of homes had ground to a halt and prices were starting to fall. The had already been falling for a year or more in Sand Diego and up in the Bay area. The problem for some folks was they were listening to the propaganda that the NAR and CAR were putting out about the median price still rising. That's true, technically it was still rising but only because sales of low to mid priced homes had all but stopped.

What amazed me was that a few people were still paying near peak prices. They were still buying new homes in the IE for crazy prices. I remember looking at the homes back then, heck I still have some of the brochures. I figured they'd be collectors items some day. My grand kids will never believe me when I tell them houses in Riverside were a million dollars in 2006.

Here a perfect example of one of the folks that didn't take the time to open the paper or research the internet before making the most important purchase of their life. 827 Valleverde Way, Perris. This house is built RIGHT BELOW the Lake Perris dam. Yes the one they found to be flawed and may collapse in a 7.5 earthquake! These homes were built in 2007 and this particular one was turned over to our oblivious home owners in April 07. The 3461 s/f house has 5 bedrooms and 4 bathrooms. It sold new for $450k, quite a deal at the time as the homes in MoVal, jsut up the street were closer to $600k. Might had something to do with the risk of being swept away??? Anyway, the owners eventually get the message, or the loan reset or unelmployment etc... Whatever the reason it's now listed as a short sale for $235k. Nearly 1/2 off and probably priced around market value given the comps. By the way, what a crapping listing Mr, Dave Scott! 130 days on market and one picture is all you can manage. Not to mention there isn't a single word to describe the home. Nothing, zip, nada! (well at least he didn't misspell anything) Another realtor that gets an F for effort.

So where the hell are they?

I guess the good news is they took 20% more homes back in October than they did in Sept. Not a Tsunai for sure, more like a knee slapper or a big ripple.

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Foreclosure repossessions in California increased 22.24% from September to October, according to data released by ForeclosureRadar.com.

Last month’s foreclosures increased 20.95% from October 2008. October’s foreclosures were 42.56% below California’s peak month of July 2008, but since then, the inventory of real estate owned (REO) properties has grown 131.36% in California.

“While we continue to see a steady stream of properties entering foreclosure, relatively few are completing the process and being sold at auction despite the increase this month,” said Foreclosureradar.com CEO Sean O’Toole.

“The bigger picture is that more and more homeowners are finding themselves upside down in foreclosure limbo,” O’Toole added, “some hoping for a loan modification or short sale, while others are just waiting for a knock on the door.”

The number of foreclosures initiated in October remained level with September levels. But, the company said, this is due in large part to recent legislation enacted in California that will temporarily slow the foreclosure process.

Investors are continuing the purchase REO properties from lenders, and courthouse auctions are becoming more competitive, as noted by increases in sales volume and prices paid, Foreclosureradar.com said.

“Many auction investors are gaining confidence that they can make money reselling homes purchased on the court house steps, given the limited supply of homes available on the MLS and continued demand stimulus in the form of tax credits and low interest rates,” the firm said.

The discount investors paid for REO properties bought at auction decreased from 20.5% in September to 17.9% in October. The majority of properties foreclosed on in October were originally purchased with mortgage originated between January 2005 and December 2007.

Ready set, don't go....

Well, I fell for the propaganda about the coming foreclosure wave. I did expect a bunch more inventory once we got past Sept. My buddy at the bank told me, my agent friend told me and I kept reading about it. So I got all my paperwork together, got my a new pre-approval and was anticipating looking at some houses. But Nooooooo, there is nothing but trash and a few numbskulls trying to get bubble prices on the market these days.

Now I am hearing that the government is actually asking the lenders to keep the inventory thin and now we have Fannie renting homes back to people. The Mortgage mod plan is still putting a kink in the inventory by letting these people live in the houses a little longer. The latest news on the mortgage modification scheme isn't good (as we expected). Very few of the people are actually qualifying or even applying for a permanent mod. Most of them seem to be using this as a way of getting a few more months out of their house.

It just sucks right now. The government has got this market screwed up worse than ever. I can't imagine what they are going to do to healthcare after this fiasco. The really sad part is that there are a lot of buyers out there. If the inventory was there (and the prices right) they would probably sell a lot more houses. Those sales would drive the economy as those people bought furniture and other trinkets for their new homes.

Tax credit sails through

The extension of the tax credit sailed through both houses and is expected to be signed by Obama in the morning. This extends the credit to houses purchased by April 30th and you must close by the end of June. $8k for new buyers and $6500 for people that have owned for at least 5 years. The income limits for the credit were also increased to $125k single, $250k joint. I think that covers most of us, and if you don't fall into those limits count your lucky stars.
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In other news, Fannie lost nearly 19 BILLION last quarter! They are running back to the Fed for more cash. They are asking for another $15 Billion. Now my math might be fuzzy but if you are losing nearly 19 billion a quarter what good is asking for $15 billion unless you plan of asking for more 2 months from now.

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Mortgage rates have just dipped below 5% again. That's good news for those folks that are looking to buy or refi. Don't get too excited though it's only just under 5% (4.98% average 30 yr)

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And Redfin is all honked up....I don;t know if anyone else noticed. They are trying to do some upgrades but it just seems to have screwed it up. Half the time it loads and the other half it times out.

Is Geithner the anti christ?

Just kidding but good grief he's certainly not working for the US taxpayers. Found this little gem that exposes him for the shill he is.






And this video is even better at exposing him.

$84 s/f in the retreat

Ok, so technically this is a short sale and the chances it will actually sell for this price are slim. But I think the fact that it listed at this price shows that the mid to high end is still falling. I'm certainly seeing the listing prices int he areas I watch continue to drop (I just wish there were more listings). There have been other sub $400k listings and sales in The Retreat. But those were in the smaller KB homes down near the back gate. This is the first one I've seen up in the central area.

8133 Tender way is a big home in The Retreat. It listed today for $399k. The house is 4767 s/f and has 4 bedrooms. It sold new back in April 2006 for just under a million ($996k). So this one is listed nearly $600k less than it's 2006 sales price or down about 60%. That price seems about right to me!

Biggest problem with this place is still the taxes. Even if you could pick it up for $400k, you are looking at nearly $10k per year in taxes AND nearly another $300/mo for the HOA (listing says $185/mo, I know it's way more than that).

Your paycheck is going down!

Did you know that as of Nov 1st the state will be taking an additional 10% out of your pay check?

Welcome to Kalifornia!

This tax increase does come back to you in April (or whenever you do your taxes). On a yearly basis you end up paying the same. They will refund you (if they have any money) or you can fight this one off my changing you withholding (claiming more dependents etc). They sorta slid this one in when we weren't looking.

super crappy listings

I'm not a perfectionist but I do expect a level of competence from people in their chosen profession. I don't think it's too much to ask of a CPA to have math skills or a doctor to have medical skills or even a realtor to have basic sales skills. So when I run across listings that I swear my 11 year old could do better with it really torques my nutz. Like this one for instance;

8037 Armagosa Dr, Riverside. This listing is PATHETIC! The pictures are ridiculous and my guess is that they were taken with a cell phone. It's the only way I can think of that would produce such crappy pics. But even a good camera would have had a hard time with the angles and locations of the pics. Then there is the fact that they didn't even clean up the place. It's not horrid dirty or anything but is it too much work to move the dirty towel from the bath, or the roll of toilet paper from the tank or the laptop and water bottle from the kitchen island. The pics are so bad I'm not even going to post them here.

The written description is bad, English is obviously not his native tongue. Get it proof read! The broker should be bitch slapped for letting this listing post.

Now, the price of this thing isn't bad at all. This is one of the nicer tracts in the area. If you could pick it up for $300k you would really piss off the nieghbors that have been paying closer to $400k in this tract.

Home buyer tax credit

As of a few days ago the home buyer tax credit seemed doomed. It would appear that the NAR and the home builders have done some serious lobbying because now it looks like it is going to be extended AND expanded.

Snagged from Calculated Risk

From Bloomberg: Senate Close to Deal Replacing Homebuyer Tax Credit

The details:

Income eligibility for first-time home buyers stays at $75,000 for individuals and $150,000 for couples.

For move-up buyers, income eligibility is $125,000 for individuals and $250,000 for couples.

There is a minimum 5 year residency requirement in their current home for move-up home buyers.

The tax credit is the lesser of $7,290 or 10% of the purchase price.

The credit runs from Dec. 1, 2009 to April 30, 2010, with an additional 60 day period to close escrow. (So end of April to sign contract, end of June to close escrow)

Expect bill to be signed by Friday.

I guess I should be happy (since I will qualify for a credit under these terms), but I don't. It makes me feel all dirty like I just had sex with a cheap hooker..... (not that I've ever had sex with a cheap hooker btw).

Insanely high taxes

I pretty much took the summer off from seriously looking for a house. Now that the summer rush is over I have started looking again. I have not gotten too serious yet but lately I've been checking Redfin more and crunching some numbers on homes I might like. The payments are not too bad. Even though prices will probably fall a little more, with the low interest rates the payments are reasonable at the homes I'm looking at. The taxes however are insane on most of them. And on top of that many of them have HOA fees of $200 to $300 a month. I looked at a house in Norco Hills listed for $380k. It was a nice house with a pool although smaller than I want the price was good. But when I looked up the taxes it had nearly $5k per year in CFDs. That's over $400/mo! I could buy a pretty nice car for $400/mo. Another house I looked at had even higher taxes and had a $260 HOA. That one was the equivilent of a payment on a BMW 5 series or an E-class. I'm not talking total property tax, this is just the CFD (Mello Roos). And that Norco Hills CFD went to 2033, another 24 years.

This isn't news to me, I crunched the numbers last year too. But for some reason it didn't bother me nearly as much last year. Probably because I was more excited then about the prices finally falling. Now that I have snapped out of my state of euphoria, I am a little more unwilling to throw $500+ a month away. The problem is, there's not many tracts without mello roos or CFD's. And the few that don't have the taxes just don't excite me much (with the exception of Stellan Ridge, but those are still priced crazy high). So it's bite the bullet, settle for another area or find an older house or one without mello roos. The more I think about it the less I want to bite the bullet and pay those taxes. Over 20 or 30 years that is a shit load of money (or vacations or cars or nice whisky etc....)

The differnce in the price of the house you can buy is phenominal when you back out a $500/mo cost. That means you can buy a $500k home vs a $400k home and have the same monthly nut after taxes. Even using a less extreme home where the tax differnce is only say $300/mo, you could buy a $460k house vs a $400k one.

Taxes suck!

Uncle Sam propping up prices

This isn't news to anyone that has been following the bust closely. The government has been doing everything it can to keep the prices from collapsing too fast. Now Goldman Sachs has quantified the results of the governments meddling in the housing market....

Uncle Sam’s interventions in the housing market have pushed home prices 5% higher on a national average than they would have been otherwise, Goldman Sachs estimates in a report released late Friday.

The government over the past year has slowed the pace of foreclosures through moratoria and the drive to modify mortgage terms to keep more borrowers in their homes. It also has pumped up demand for housing by giving tax credits to many first-time home buyers and by driving down mortgage interest rates. As a result, home prices in some areas have risen in recent months, particularly for homes that appeal to investors and first-time buyers. Bidding wars for the more attractive bank-owned homes have become common.

But these artificial props won’t last forever and may have created a false bottom in the market. “The risk of renewed home-price declines remains significant,” Goldman economist Alec Phillips writes in the report, “and our working assumption is a further 5% to 10% decline by mid-2010.”

Federal government policies encouraging loan mods have reduced the supply of homes on the market temporarily because it takes months for loan servicers (the firms that collect mortgage payments) to figure out which borrowers qualify. Some states have added their own restrictions on foreclosures that drag out the process further. In many cases, borrowers who get loan mods will default again within a year or so, meaning the problem has been delayed rather than solved. That means there is a large but impossible-to-measure “shadow” inventory of homes that eventually will hit the market.

Goldman estimates the tax credit has boosted sales by 200,000 units. Congress is debating whether to extend that credit beyond Nov. 30. Goldman says it “appears likely to be extended for at least a few months but probably no longer than through the first half of 2010.”

Mammoth purchases of mortgage securities by the Federal Reserve appear to have held home mortgage rates about 0.30 percentage point lower than they would have been, Goldman says. Those purchases are due to be phased out in next year’s first quarter.

The outlook for further government policy is “cloudy,” Goldman notes. But it is safe to assume that many politicians will remain loath to let the market run free and wild. Goldman points to legislation introduced by Sen. Jack Reed (D, R.I.) that would require mediation between borrowers and lenders before any foreclosures and mandate loan mods in some cases.

“At a minimum, the Reed proposal would slow the foreclosure process considerably,” helping to prevent price declines in the near term, Goldman says. It adds: “The tradeoff would come later, when many of the properties eventually make their way back onto the market through foreclosure.”