Wednesday, May 28, 2008

Home prices falling faster

For the buyers that are thinking that now is the time here are some news reports from the area (local papers ect).

First, here is the Case/Shiller chart for San Diego from It looks like the price declines are in double black diamond territory (steep!).

From the desert bulletin

Home prices in Southern California are racing downhill, but does that mean it's a buyer's market?

Each month real-estate agents watch prices plunge and foreclosures soar, and several buyers are still in no rush to make deals.

Perhaps they shouldn't be.

"Prices aren't just falling - they're falling faster than they were," said Michael Carney, executive director of the Real Estate Research Council at Cal Poly Pomona.

"This (recent data) is not suggestive of a bottom," Carney said. "We're all looking for the bottom in home prices... but the market doesn't all of a sudden turn around."

San Bernardino-based real-estate agent Hamid Aghili was so surprised by April's positive data on new home sales, he initially argued it was a mistake. He sells new homes but hasn't negotiated a sale in months.

"Prices are lower, but people don't have money," said Aghili, who works at Century 21 Town & Country.

The 15-year real-estate veteran's phone range off the hook during the housing boom, but not these days.

More often than not, Aghili finds himself working on "short sales," where delinquent homeowners avoid foreclosure by selling their deeply-discounted house on the market at a loss to the bank. Some banks will accept this if it makes more financial sense than foreclosing.

Aghili feels the market will bottom out in early 2009. Some would say he's optimistic.

Josee Maclaughlin, real-estate agent with Century 21 Beachside in Upland, thinks 2010 might be the long-awaited bottom-out year. About 60 percent of her business is short sales right now.

From the Press Enterprise

Rialto has 778 bank-owned properties and another 970 in the pre-foreclosure stage.

City leaders say that's a recipe for suburban blight, and they hope to stem the tide.

Rialto is the latest Inland city to go after lenders and financial institutions as a tactic to force someone to be responsible for the upkeep of abandoned houses after distressed homeowners have packed up and moved away.

Murrieta and Lake Elsinore passed city ordinances to deal with the problem. Calimesa, Hemet and Temecula are pursuing similar avenues for halting the pace of residential eyesores.

"In Rialto, we had about 480 foreclosures in 2007," Dutrey said. "In 2008, the way things are going, we're going to have over 1,000 foreclosures."

From the SanBerdu Sun

Stumped by depressing sales numbers, the Inland Empire's market for new homes is forcing certain builders to fast-track inventory straight to the auction block.

Some are even doing it over the Internet to cut costs.

There are pros and cons to bidding online, and bidding on a developer-owned home comes with its own issues.

Keep in mind that you can't visibly see who you're bidding against over the Internet.

And a builder can sometimes reject the highest bid.

It's different from a bank-owned auction, where banks mired by the subprime mortgage meltdown are desperate to clean up the foreclosures on the books.

"The pro is that you're bidding before the sale," said Lori Allen, customer service manager with Dallas-based Hudson and Marshall, an online live auction company.

Fontana, Corona, Victorville and San Bernardino - among other cities in the two-county area - are hot spots on the company's radar right now.

"If you do your homework, sometimes you can get the house before the sale," Allen said.

Developer Mark Gardner made the choice to send 25 of his never-lived-in homes to a virtual auction block at

"We overbuilt for the current market conditions," said Gardner, who owns Redlands-based Gardner Construction.

Only a few pockets of healthy real-estate markets have sprouted up across the nation, but areas like Southern California are still wallowing in a mess of foreclosures that many experts say will force sales and prices lower over the next two years

Tuesday, May 27, 2008

Asking price reduced $700K in 8 months

Back in October of last year I wrote about 17892 Glen Hollow Way in Woodcrest. This is in one of the areas I like and my wife likes this particular model of home. Back in October this home was listed for $1.1 Million. Of course, there was no chance of it selling for that amount. The poor, over his head owner had missed the money barge and was drowning in debt. At the time I wrote that post the cheapest REO's were selling in the mid- $700's. Fast forward 8 months and this home is now listed as a short sale for ...........................drum roll.................. $400K! You can almost smell the desperation. From asking $1.1 million to $400k in 8 months. You gotta love it.

The listing vanished for a few months, I guess the guy pulled his head out and realized he was not getting his $1.1 million wishing price. It hit the market again about 3 months ago priced at a some what more realistic, but still too high $700k. He has chopped the price twice now to his current $400k.

By the way, I think $400k is a decent deal for this house. If it was not a short sale I would probably get off my ass and fire off an offer. I'de take that house in a heartbeat at $400k. But I can't be bothered with short sales and especially short sales that are not approved. This guy is dreaming, hoping the short sale fairy will swoop in and rescue his tattered credit rating. If anyone is keeping score, there are now currently 4 homes in this tract listed under $500k.

This weeks median asking price

The nose dive continues. The low end really took a dive this week, with the mid price level dropping about average (4k per week) and the high end took it easy this week only dropping $900. The inventory numbers are basically unchanged, going up a few hundred.

Trend05/26/20081 month3 month6 month12 month
Median Price$285,000-4.7%-12.8%-20.8%-30.3%

(SFH + Condo)
25th Percentile50th Percentile
75th Percentile

Saturday, May 24, 2008

I screwed up!

Yes, as a matter of fact that is fake grass.

I gave away the award for the Realtard of the month already, then I found this listing.

17362 Woodentree Ln, Riverside is in the Victoria Groves tract. The home is 3198 sq/ft and has 3 bedrooms and 2.75 baths. This home appears to be owned by a realtor. The past sales look kinda fishy. I don't know what was going on with a $550k sale in July 07 and then another $635K sale in November of 07 ( I can't believe those are legit sales ). Now this tool lists his home for $875K to $925k!! Huh?

The listing is amazing. Here's the first sentence (and what a sentence it is).


Ok Mr Realtard, here's why. Because those homes are $500K cheaper than yours!

Now on to one of the best things about this listing. There are 10 pictures of the home. Six of those are of the outside, three of them are of the front, one is the dog pen (yup, the dog pen!) and there are two of the pool. The remaining 4 are of the inside. In all four shots there is crap all over the place. 2 of the 4 pictures are of a pool table with crap on it and under it. There is one shot of an untidy kitchen and one shot of the back of the couch (of course with crap on it).

I don't understand what the point of this listing is. Most homes in that tract are listed around $130 s/f, with the low end REOs lising down near $100 s/f. This moron lists at $274 s/f (at his low end of the price range). This listing makes my head hurt......

Yes, check out the fully carpeted dog run!

Could ya maybe put some more crap on the counter? Love those builder grade cabinets too!

Ok, what is this picture supposed to show me other than that the laundry was just done and is now on the back of the couch.

Friday, May 23, 2008

$850K in 2007, now $369k

3005 Briarhaven in Corona just hit the market as an REO property at 57% off the last sale price in July 2007. The home is 3195 sq/ft and has 4 bedrooms and 3 baths. The lot is kinda small and there is some kind of goofy waterfall/pond thing taking up most of the tiny back yard. The house looks nice though. The previous sale price was $850k last July. The speed at which this property reverted back to the lender would certainly indicate an early payment (if not first payment) default. For a second I thought the $850k sale was probably a cash back, fraud type sale. But after checking a few of the other properties in the tract that price is actually about right for that time frame. To think that people were paying that much for those homes is just looney!

The lender obviously wants to get rid of this one in a hurry and have priced it accordingly at $369k. I expect this will attract a bunch-o-offers and sell in a hurry. If it sells around asking that would be a $481k loss in under 1 year (57%!!). This one will probably seel over asking as it is the lowest pricd home in the tract by quite a bit. There is one other one priced at $395k but it is a little smaller.

Thursday, May 22, 2008

Realtard of the Month

This is the worst listing I've seen in quite a while. 17097 Spring Canyon is up in Lake hills, Riverside. The home is a 3 bed, 2 bath home that is 3045 sq/ft. The home sold new last March for $676K. The Doofus owner and our Realtard of the month have combined their collective brainpower to conclude that $695k is the number that will get this home sold! The fact that 17080, nearly right across the street and the same floor plan is listed for $389K did not seem to matter for our braintrust.

Now, I think the realtard might have a clue since she obviously put very little effort into the listing. Here is what she had to say about the home.......


That's right, she had NOTHING to say, not a single word. And YES, those 4 lousy pictures are rotated 90 degrees. Oh, Renee did not put a lot of effort into this one, not much effort at all.

Here,s the actual Redfin listing, and below are the actual 4 pictures (still rotated 90 degrees)

Aprils median sales price by City

Here's the median price by City from DataQuick.

Riverside County 2,978 $294,000 $410,000 -28.29%
BANNING 33 $217,500 $276,000 -21.20%
BEAUMONT 103 $285,000 $368,000 -22.55%
BLYTHE 6 $190,500 $183,500 3.81%
CALIMESA 7 $275,000 $205,000 34.15%
CATHEDRAL CITY 64 $230,500 $335,500 -31.30%
COACHELLA 32 $230,000 $309,318 -25.64%
CORONA 321 $394,000 $570,000 -30.88%
DESERT HOT SPRINGS 61 $175,000 $288,000 -39.24%
HEMET 149 $190,000 $319,500 -40.53%
IDYLLWILD 8 $233,500 $354,500 -34.13%
INDIAN WELLS 27 $850,000 $837,000 1.55%
INDIO 159 $292,500 $351,000 -16.67%
LA QUINTA 125 $561,500 $583,000 -3.69%
LAKE ELSINORE 103 $290,000 $410,750 -29.40%
MENIFEE 98 $277,500 $390,000 -28.85%
MIRA LOMA 23 $418,000 $542,500 -22.95%
MORENO VALLEY 203 $235,000 $385,000 -38.96%
MURRIETA 212 $310,500 $465,000 -33.23%
NORCO 18 $520,000 $635,000 -18.11%
NUEVO 3 $205,000 $508,181 -59.66%
PALM DESERT 141 $353,000 $406,000 -13.05%
PALM SPRINGS 199 $240,000 $365,000 -34.25%
PERRIS 111 $225,000 $362,500 -37.93%
RANCHO MIRAGE 69 $510,000 $527,000 -3.23%
RIVERSIDE 248 $300,000 $410,000 -26.83%
SAN JACINTO 56 $220,000 $340,000 -35.29%
SUN CITY 98 $241,750 $339,250 -28.74%
TEMECULA 188 $329,000 $459,000 -28.32%
THOUSAND PALMS 2 $187,500 $303,500 -38.22%
WHITE WATER 3 $173,000 $220,000 -21.36%
WILDOMAR 48 $327,000 $450,000 -27.33%
WINCHESTER 55 $329,000 $478,000 -31.17%

April Sales by Zip Code

Here's the Aril Sales by zip code for Riverside County.

RIVERSIDE zip SFR Price % chg
County 2,219 $284 -30.90%
Aguanga 92536 1 $277 -31.90%
Banning 92220 30 $218 -22.30%
Beaumont 92223 47 $248 -28.70%
Blythe 92225 6 $188 2.50%
Calimesa 92320 7 $275 n/a
Canyon Lake 92587 19 $280 -36.00%
Cathedral City 92234 49 $258 -23.80%
Coachella 92236 18 $229 -23.70%
Corona 92879 31 $345 -27.40%
Corona 92880 86 $400 -34.90%
Corona 92881 31 $425 -11.80%
Corona 92882 57 $365 -33.00%
Corona 92883 43 $345 -30.60%
Dsrt Hot Springs 92240 47 $157 -42.10%
Dsrt Hot Springs 92241 4 $153 -25.60%
Hemet 92543 27 $129 -46.40%
Hemet 92544 48 $170 -44.30%
Hemet 92545 54 $210 -35.40%
Idyllwild 92549 9 $195 -55.50%
Indian Wells 92210 20 $1,325 22.10%
Indio 92201 66 $248 -30.40%
Indio 92203 40 $300 -23.00%
La Quinta 92253 84 $570 -9.60%
Lake Elsinore 92530 35 $233 -35.70%
Lake Elsinore 92532 56 $295 -35.50%
Menifee 92584 73 $252 -34.70%
Mira Loma 91752 24 $420 -31.70%
Moreno Valley 92551 34 $229 -36.40%
Moreno Valley 92553 51 $168 -54.10%
Moreno Valley 92555 60 $267 -42.30%
Moreno Valley 92557 43 $235 -41.30%
Murrieta 92562 86 $320 -37.90%
Murrieta 92563 110 $310 -36.10%
Norco 92860 19 $520 -18.10%
Nuevo 92567 2 $241 -52.60%
Palm Desert 92211 47 $353 -12.80%
Palm Desert 92260 20 $400 -40.70%
Palm Springs 92262 39 $375 -24.20%
Palm Springs 92264 21 $615 -14.90%
Perris 92570 30 $270 -34.50%
Perris 92571 54 $210 -37.80%
Rancho Mirage 92270 39 $538 -21.00%
Riverside 92501 10 $263 -32.70%
Riverside 92503 52 $285 -35.90%
Riverside 92504 28 $225 -37.90%
Riverside 92505 19 $229 -42.60%
Riverside 92506 34 $283 -33.50%
Riverside 92507 18 $281 -24.20%
Riverside 92508 31 $379 -24.90%
Riverside 92509 33 $260 -38.80%
San Jacinto 92582 21 $229 -44.00%
San Jacinto 92583 33 $203 -33.80%
Sun City 92585 24 $250 -31.50%
Sun City 92586 28 $165 -25.20%
Temecula 92590 5 $810 -12.40%
Temecula 92591 45 $314 -29.40%
Temecula 92592 98 $315 -30.70%
Thermal 92274 1 $85 -74.20%
Thousand Palms 92276 1 $295 -13.90%
White Water 92282 3 $173 -48.40%
Wildomar 92595 35 $310 -24.80%
Winchester 92596 30 $292 -31.90%

Wednesday, May 21, 2008

Some banks STILL don't get it, most sellers still don't get it...

Most of the banks have accepted the fact that the value of those REPO's ain't what they were hoping it would be. Most of the REO's hitting the market are priced to reflect this fact. But there are still some banks (or brokers) that are in serious denial. While checking the new listings today I ran across these two REO properties in Greer Ranch in Murrieta.

Home number one is 27146 Red Maple St. This home is a 4 Bedroom, 3 bath home that is 3532 sq/ft is size. Judging from the poor pictures the house is nothing special, just an average tract home. The home was purchased new in Nov 2004 for $588K and it looks like it went back to the lender in March for $659K. Obviously the last owner used the home to finance his high rolling life style. Our "poor" lender thinks they are dumping this place at $610K ($173 sq/ft), Hey that's $50K less than they are into it! It must be a deal, right?

Unfortunately for them a $50K loss is wishful thinking. They are looking at a $250K loss (or more) in all likelihood. As an example of what the should have priced this house at lets look at another new listing just a block or two away. 26727 Chamomile St is a much bigger house with 5 bedrooms and 4.5 baths tucked into 4295 sq/ft. This home sold new in 2005 for $634K, then again in June 2006 for $778k. This one has also gone back to the lender but this lender is more in touch with the market. This home is listed for $410K ($95 sq/ft)

Does bank number one really think anyone is going to buy that house at $173 sq/ft when the can go down the street and get a newer, larger home for $95 sq/ft? Most of the homes in this tract are listed between $100 sq/ft and $120 sq/ft. How a broker and/or a lender can put a home on the market at $173 sq/ft is beyond me.

Now let's look at a couple of F'd home owners. Most home sellers are still in major denial, especially if they bought in the last few years. It's hard to admit you F'd up and it's even harder to throw in the towel and destroy your credit. But the facts are the facts and no amount of rubbing you lucky rabbits foot will get a home sold for 2006 prices. Many sellers are still listing the homes at wishing prices and a few like the one below (on Nuthatch) are just complete morons listing homes at the price they do.

Remember the days when prices made sense and similar homes in similar areas would all be priced within a few percent of one another. Even if one house was totally decked out with pool and fancy landscaping the premium for that home would only be 10% or 15% more than the average homes. Today's market is so screwed up that similar homes can have wildly different asking prices, especially if one is a REO or short sale.

19285 Nuthatch St in Perris and 18774 Malkoha St are examples of this. These are identical homes in the same tract. One home is all tricked out with landscaping and a pool and the other is still looking a little bare in that department. The nice house was originally listed for an unbelievable 1.1 million (in Perris, WTF dude??), Now it's down to $999k ( oh yea, that's better). Someone should call this guy and tell him his house is in PERRIS!.

The other home (Malkoha) is a short sale listing and it is priced at $380k (and it's not the cheapest house in the tract!). Granted it needs some landscaping and it does not have a pool but it's 62% less than the other house and for that extra $619K you could put in a pool, landscaping and a couple of Ferrari's.

We could sure make the inventory numbers look a lot better if all the wishing listings were removed. I have noticed lot's of them have been dropping off over the last few months but there's just so many of them to weed through when you are looking. I just wish the agents would drop those stupid listing and remove all the useless clutter from the MLS.

Tuesday, May 20, 2008

The NAR can't do math

The Press Enterprise is reporting that housing affordability is soaring due to the rapid fall in prices brought on by the foreclosure crisis. Even so the IE still ranks as the 19th least affordable metro area (down from the 14th).

According to the report 57% of Riverside county households can afford the median entry level home of $244k. According to the article you need an income of $46k for qualify to buy that $244k house, assuming a 10% down payment and a 5.65% loan. These numbers come straight from the National Association of realtors by the way.

First of all, how many entry level buyers making $46k per year have $25k in the bank for that down payment? I’m sure a few do but most people I know making $46k per year can’t even afford to buy good beer. Second, where can you get a 5.65% loan? And finally how is buying a home that is 5.3 times your income a good idea. When did the National Association of Realtards start recommending spending 5.3 times your income.

When we bought our first home in 1988 our income was about $45k. The home (we just barely got into) cost $110k. Granted the interest rate was 10.5% for the first few years so the payments were higher than they would be today, but never the less we just made it. And after paying the mortgage and other bills we had very little left at the end of the month. Back then gas was a buck a gallon, a new car was $10k to $15k and you could fill up a shopping cart at Vons for $100. So tell me how is a person making $46k going to live if they buy a $244k home. After taxes they are probably bringing home around $3000 to $3200 per month The monthly payment with tax and insurance would run at least $1500 (assuming you could get a 5.65% loan and a low tax rate). That’s at least $500 a month more than my payment was back in 88. With the added expense of food, gas, clothing, utilities and such today there is NO WAY you can swing that on $46k per year unless you eat to ramen and walk to work. List your expenses and see if you can live on $3k per month

It's amazing that the NAR is still trying to get people to buy more than they can afford. Have they learned NOTHING? That sort of thinking is a large part of the reason we are in this mess. People should buy what they can afford with a safety factor for emergencies. The old 2.5 times your income is still a good number! Using that ratio if you make $46k, you should not spend more than $115k. We obviously still have a way to go.

Monday, May 19, 2008

This weeks median listing prices

The sales numbers might be looking a little better but the listing prices are still falling faster than GWs approval rating. With this weeks dive all three percentile's are now under $400k and the low end is getting very very close to cracking the $200k barrier.

Trend05/19/20081 month3 month6 month12 month
Median Price$289,000-3.6%-12.3%-20.8%-29.5%

(SFH + Condo)
25th Percentile50th Percentile
75th Percentile

Data from

April report from DataQuick

The April report from Data Quick has finally been published. It’s a little better than most of the recent reports but it still shows an overall decline in sales year over year for nearly every county. The one exception is Riverside. It managed a slight increase mainly due to the sales of low end properties in the outer areas. A nearly 30% decline in median price in the last 12 months is getting a few knife catchers off the fence. Here’s the highlights of the report.

La Jolla, CA--- Southern California home sales surged last month to the highest level since August as bargain shoppers took advantage of price slashing. Although some higher-end costal markets also posted gains, the swell in transactions mainly reflects more sales of homes under $500,000 in inland areas where depreciation and foreclosures have been greatest, a real estate information service reported.
A total of 15,615 new and resale houses and condos sold in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties in April. That was up 21.9 percent from 12,808 the previous month but down 19 percent from 19,269 in April last year, according to DataQuick Information Systems.
Sales from March to April have risen on average 1.2 percent since 1988, when DataQuick's statistics begin. Although last month's sales total was the highest for any month since August 2007, when 17,755 homes sold, it was still the weakest April since April 1995, when 15,303 homes sold, and the second- lowest April on record. Last month was 38 percent below of the April average of 25,311 sales.
Post-foreclosure homes continued to play a major role in the Southland market. Of all the homes that resold in April, 37.5 percent had been foreclosed on at some point in the prior 12 months, compared with a revised 35.8 percent in March and 4.6 percent a year ago. Across the six-county area, "foreclosure resales" ranged from 26.9 percent of resale activity in Orange County to 52.7 percent in Riverside County.
Zip codes showing relatively large annual gains in sales of existing houses included those in San Jacinto and Lake Elsinore in Riverside County, Victorville in San Bernardino County, Lake Forest and Anaheim in Orange County, Lancaster in Los Angeles County and Chula Vista in San Diego County.
The median price paid for a Southland home was $385,000 last month, unchanged from March but down 23.8 percent from the peak median of $505,000 in April 2007. That peak was reached several times last spring and summer. Last month was the first in eight months that the median did not decline on a month-to-month basis.
Indicators of market distress continue to move in different directions. Foreclosure activity is at record levels, financing with adjustable-rate mortgages is at a six-year low. Down payment sizes and flipping rates are stable, non-owner occupied buying activity is increasing, DataQuick reported.

Sunday, May 18, 2008

Signs of the times

Over the last couple of weeks I've noticed more and more signs from our slowing economy. Just yesterday I was filling up the gas tank ($84!) when a car pulled in across from me. It was a nice Chevy Avalanche with pimpin rims driven by a young Latino gal. She hops out and runs credit card number 1 through the card dice. Back to the purse she goes for credit card number 2....nope, that one doesn't work either. Back to the purse, there must be one more in here somewhere. She tries a third card and cannot get that one to go through either. Then she opens the door and I think she asked her man for some cash. That started a short argument during which she hopped into the car slammed the door shut and then squeeled off out of the gas station.

On Thursday I visited Moss Bros. Dodge to take my wifes car in for some service. The place was a ghost town! There were NO customers except people getting cars serviced. I strolled through the showroom and briefly through the lot. There were zero people working deals in the showroom and no one looking at cars. On Saturday afternoon we went and picked up the car and it was the same. I saw one couple working a deal in the showroom and another looking at cars in the lot. That was it, 2 couples looking on a Saturday afternoon. The other dealers didn't look much busier either, the whole auto mall was dead.

Anyone else notice the freeway is lighter these days?

Many of the local golf courses have lowered their fees... about time too!

My favorite sushi bar must be hurting. Every time I've been in lately it's only been half full (or less). We go every week and it's been like this for the last few months.

Signs of the times I'm afraid!

Saturday, May 17, 2008

How low can ya go?

How low can the prices go?

Just a few months ago I wrote a post about the first homes to crack the $100 s/f barrier. That was back in mid October 2007. So here we are only 7 months later and I am now finding homes under $70 s/f and I even found one listed under $60 s/f. Granted most of these homes are out in Hemet, San Jancinto, Wildomar, Perris and Lake Elsinore but those price declines are going to spread inward. Now don;t go getting all giddy thinking about a $60 s/f home in Chino Hills. That's probably no going to happen. What you might expect is similar percentage declines. Many of these homes are posting declines of around 60% from peak (or more). Let's take a look at a few of these.

The first one has got to be a record breaker. 22 Plaza Avilla in Lake Elsinore. This home is a 4 bed, 2.5 bath, 3208 s/f on a 9600 s/f lot. The home sold new in 2004 for $465k. It was flipped right at the peak in Oct 2006 for $650k. The bank got the home back in Feb. They listed it for $360k and have been dropping the price ever since. It's currently listed for $184,300! If it sells for that, the loss would be $465,700, or a 72% loss!!
Now if that's not some kind of record loss, I dunno what is.... (Currently it's listed for $57 s/f)

This one is not quite as impressive as the last but the loss is still substantial. 343 Pamela ct. in Hemet was built in 2002 just as the market was catching fire. It is a 5 bedroom, 3 bath home, 2921 s/f on a 7400 s/f lot. It sold new for $199,500. It sold again in May 2005 for $397k, then again in Jan 2007 for $500k. The bank took the home back in April and it's now listed for ($63 s/f)
$184,900 or just less than it sold for when new . If it sells at asking the loss will be $315k or 63% in just over a year.

1873 Rosemont Cr in San Jacinto is our next example. This one appears to be a victim of the Home Equity ATM. This home is a 4 bedroom, 2.5 bath, 2258 s/f on a 6500 s/f lot. The home sold new in 2004 for $255,500. It was lost to the bank very early in the crash, in fact this one was lost before the crash really started. The bank took this home back in April 2007 for $342K. Quite a bit more than the original purchase price. So the owners obviously sucked out some cash.
The bank listed the home WAY back in June 2007 for $324k. They have been chasing the market down ever since. After 7 price drops they are now down to $150K ($66 s/f). I think they might even get it sold now! The loss is probably higher than I will estimate due to the high probability of a 2nd lender . If we go by the REO amount this home has lost $192k or 57%.

Tuesday, May 13, 2008

Lake Hills cracks through the $400k barrier

Lake hills in western Riverside has already seen some amazing price declines, especially in the high end stuff. The mid-priced homes have actually been kinda sticky lately with most of them lurking in the high 400s and low 500s. That has changed this week with the listing of 16447 Village Mdws.

16477 Village mwds is a 3 bed 3 bath home, 3455 sqft in size and it sits on a nice big .4 acre lot (much of it is a hill though). This home sold new in Feb of last year for $685k. It has already gone back to the lender so the purchaser obviously did not make very many payments (if any). The house just listed today for $389k. That is a loss of nearly $300k (43%) in a little over a year.

I imagine that this will get a flurry of offers since it is the first sub-$400k listing (there is another one but it's a short sale so I don't count it). Even at that price this is probably still at least $100k too high if you go by comparable rental values though. The taxes are also very high as are the HOA fees. Regardless someone, probably multiple someones will hop off the fence and fire offers off at this one. I bet it does not last 2 weeks.

What does it take to buy this home using traditional amounts. Lets say it sells over asking for $400k. With 20% down that means you have a loan of $320K. Assuming you have stellar credit and can get a loan at 6.5% your payments will be 2022/mo, add in tax pf $600/mo and HOA of $190/mo and another $150/mo for insurance you get a monthly payment of nearly $3000.

If you go by the old standard of 28% rule that would mean you will need to make over $86k per year to afford this home and that is with 20% down. If you only have 10% down then you need to make $98k per year to hit the 28%. And that is 28% using just the mortgage (no tax, HOA or insurance factored in).

April Foreclosure report

Foreclosure Radar has released the April foreclosure report and as expected the numbers continue to get worse and worse. I found the report on Mr Mortgage,s website, his site is pretty funny and his youtube videos are well worth a watch

Notice of Defaults (NOD = pre-foreclosures) were up 2.6% to a record high of 44,100 from 42,700 last month.

Notice of Trustee Sales (NTS or NOT = Foreclosure Notices) were up 7.8% to a record high of 28,892. That is more that 1000 a (business) day! Just think about that for a second. More than 1000 people a DAY are getting foreclosure notices in California. With a very large percentage of those received by residents of the IE (the IE has the 2nd highest foreclosure rate in the state, heck we could be number 1 by now).

Foreclosure Sales at Auction jumped 44% from March to April. (note this is the homes being sold at the Trustee sale, most go back to the bank. this is not a 44% jump in real estate sales). Of those 97.75% of the homes failed to sell at auction and went back to the lender.

And now for the Local Numbers.

San Bernardino County saw a 94 percent increase in foreclosure-related filings and Riverside County saw a 115 percent increase ( default notices, auction sale notices and bank repossessions) compared to a year earlier.

Last month, Riverside and San Bernardino counties together had 14,081 foreclosure-related filings, one for every 99 households. In April there were 2,457 homes repossessed in Riverside County, a more than 20-fold increase from 119 in April 2007, while 1,655 homes were repossessed in San Bernardino County, up more than six-fold from 250 a year earlier.

Homes lost to foreclosure were 20 times higher this April than last April in Riverside! No matter how you slice it, that is a shocking increase.

Monday, May 12, 2008

Another peek into Dos Lagos

Dos Lagos is another one of those trendy gated golf course communities so popular in South Corona. It was one of those tracts that was just inundated with flippers trying to make that big score. Some managed to pull it off and quickly flipped homes, some making nearly $500k in a matter of months. But those that did not get out quickly are creating a wave of REO properties that are taking prices down faster keg at a frat party.

For example there is 3041 Andana, which is a 4 bed, 3 bath home, 3414 sqft in size. The original selling price was not listed but these sold for between $800k and $900k depending on lot premium and upgrades (some were quickly flipped for up to 1.4 million). This home went back to the lender and they have listed it for $511,900 ( that's just an odd price...). There are several other similar homes and some slightly larger for sale in this tract and most are lender owned. Without knowing the original selling price it's hard to speculate on the loss. The tax value is $860k so the selling price must have been close to that. That puts the loss around 40% in two years.

There are smaller homes in the Dos Lagos tract too, but they are fairing no better. 4371 Altivo ln is a smaller home. It's only 2206 sq/ft and has 4 beds and 3 baths. This home sold new in late 2006 for $640k. The lender took this one back in early Feb and has it listed for $399k. A loss of $240k or 38%. But there is little chance of them getting it. Just a couple of streets over the same model home is for sale at 2939 Wild Springs for $287K. It says it needs a few repairs but you can do way more than a few repairs for the $112k price difference.

This for $399k?

Or this for $287K??

This weeks Median Asking Price

The median asking price for Riverside/Sanberdu took another plunge this week dropping $6500. In addition, the low end median and the high end median both took a healthy dive. The inventory has been steadily dropping for the last few months. I think most of that drop is due to the dreamers pulling their homes from the market.

Trend05/12/20081 month3 month6 month12 month
Median Price$292,500-2.5%-12.7%-20.7%-28.7%

(SFH + Condo)
25th Percentile50th Percentile
75th Percentile

Saturday, May 3, 2008

Open thread, Lets' hear your opinion

Golfer-X is taking the family on a cruise for the next week. Rather than having a week of silence, please let's hear what you all think of the current market. What are you seeing in your area?

Have fun, see you in a week!