Friday, January 4, 2008

For prices it's a new year, and that's 2001

2003 price roll backs are getting too easy to find. I thought I'd be a little more ambitious and look for 2002 rollbacks. I decided I would take a look to the south since I don't go down there much. I looked in Lake Elsinore, Wildomar, Murrieta and the surrounding areas. Surprisingly I found some and even more surprisingly I found some 2001 price rollbacks.

31669 Canyon Ridge DR, Lake Elsinore, CA 92532, this 4 bed/2.5 bath home was sold in mid 2001 for $260k, again in 2003 for $325, again in 2004 for $425 and it's for sale again in 2008 for....back.... back....back in time we go to 2001. It's for sale for $275k! Right back to 2001 prices.



23065 Empire Penguin RD, Wildomar, CA 92595, this 4 bedroom home with a nice pool was built in 2002 and sold for $310k. In addition to the pool it has a "Gormet, built-in barbeque", gawd I love illiterate realtors. But I digress, today you can buy it for $290k. $20k less than it sold for in 2002.



35381 Perla PL Wildomar, CA 92595, is a nice looking 3/3 home that's just over 3000 s/f. This one sold new for $249k in 2001. Today it appears to be bank owned and you can get it for $295 ($97 s/f). That would probably put it back to early 2002 prices.



40139 WHITE LEAF LN, Murrieta, CA 92562. I listed this one just for fun. This home was built in 1989 and sold new for $238k (Murrieta and Temecula were actually on the spendy side back in the late 80's compared to Corona and Riverside). Today you can buy this home for $61k more than is sold for 18 years ago. That equates to an annual rate of appreciation of 1.25%. Now do you believe the NAR when they say "Real Estate is you best investment". ONE POINT TWO FIVE PERCENT over the last 18 years. AND, that is assuming they sell it for the $299k it's listed for. It would not take much of a discount to wipe out that paltry 1.25% gain. Looking at the pics this home looks old and dirty inside so I would not put any money on them fetching the asking price.


I found about a dozen of these 2001/2002 rollbacks without looking too hard. Makes you wonder just how far back the prices will go.


8 comments:

Tyrone said...

And the fat lady has not sung yet.

snob from morgan hill said...

The Murietta house would sold fast for 250K in 2008, 240K in 2009, 230K in 2010, 220 in 2011, then flat for 5 years......

ice weasel said...

Low hanging fruit, all of them. Which isn't to disparage your work here G_X. But I think it's pretty clear that the IE in general and places such as Wildomar will keep leading the pack in prices declines.

I wonder if Snob's predictions aren't a bit optimistic. If jobs continue falling as they did in December, $240K in 2009 could be very expensive for a place that's fifty miles from nowhere.

nmoerbeek said...

With any luck areas closer to los angeles and north orange county will start to decline the same way chino, chino hills, Claremont, upland. Prices are still way out of line there.

Anonymous said...

I'm bidding like it's 1999.

snob from morgan hill said...

"fifty miles from nowhere"
Add $5.00/gallon for gas = Implosion Central. This is not funny anymore...

ice weasel said...

In the course of looking into this a little I called my mom who used to own a home in Wildomar. She had actually been out to her old neighborhood and said it was amazing how badly the neighborhood had aged. Most of the houses were run down and very poorly maintained.

No big surprise, investors, flippers and people in way over their heads on trash grossly over priced don't generally work hard to keep the exterior pretty. After all, they have granite counters to install.

But I bring this up because, as the economy continues to weaken (and it will), as jobs fade and gas prices continue to go up and as these neighborhoods fall into a scarier state of disrepair, where will the prices go?

Again, this RE bubble implosion is shaping up, more and more, as a perfect storm kind of confluence of horrible factors. Comparing this event to previous ones may really lead to some false assumptions.

Anonymous said...

Once gas prices go way up this summer.....look out below.