I have noticed there is a wave of new listings hitting the market. Over the holidays there were very few new listings. In the last few weeks though there have been about a thousand new listing. Many of those are listings that expired before the holidays and are now back on the market. Of course this has reset their listing date so the days on market number looks better. I have already run across quite a few properties that are “new” listings, but I remember them a few months ago.
Looking back over 2006 and 2007 listings I see the trend seems to be that an average of 1000 homes per month gets added to the inventory through late summer. The peak inventory from the last couple of years happened in late summer (Sept/Oct). If that trend holds for this year by late summer there will be roughly 42,000 homes on the market come late summer. I suppose that homes could start selling again, reducing that number. What is far more likely to happen is that a deteriorating economy will slow the sales even further. The peak mortgage defaults go through Oct of this year and the process of foreclosing on those homes takes another 9 months. I’m thinking we might hit 50,000 homes by the end of this year
Looking at the homes hitting the market, it’s painfully obvious that most people still think they can get 2005 prices. 90% of the homes I see have zero chance of selling at the price they are listed. Some of the banks are getting more aggressive with the pricing while others are still listing high. With the inventory climbing, the sales numbers continuing to drag along the bottom and financing hard to come by, you have to think the prices will continue to plummet.