Tuesday, July 19, 2011

New conforming Loan Limits

What will the new Conforming Loan Limits that go into affect do to the IE market? Many are predicting another wave of price declines when the lower limits go into affect. The current loan limit is $500k. However once you get over $417k getting a loan is a lot harder and usually requires a better credit score, DTI and a higher down payment (15% at least). So for much of the buyers $417k is still the loan limit. The new conforming limit will drop to $335,350. Which is still far higher than what most homes in the IE cost. In effect, the loan limit reduction will only affect those homes priced over that amount (or a little higher based on the down payment). That is only 12% of the home sales in the IE, the other 88% are not going to be affected. So, if you are looking at homes over $350k you might want to relax a few months, there is a good chance that segment of the market might see some price drops. But if you are looking in the under $350k range I doubt there will be much change. Of course this is assuming the government doesn't pull some rabbit out of a hat and extend the limits.....

Tuesday, July 12, 2011

June numbers from DataQuick

The sales report for June is out and it's not a very good one (no surprise there). The IE did ok compared to most of the other areas. Riverside saw it's median tick up again versus May, but san berdu saw it fall slightly. Our sales numbers also went up slightly over May but fell drastically versus last June.

Here's the reports,

A total of 20,532 new and resale houses and condos sold in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties in June. That was up 11.6 percent from 18,394 in May but down 14.0 percent from 23,871 in June 2010, according to San Diego-based DataQuick.

On average, sales between May and June have risen 6.2 percent since 1988, when DataQuick's statistics begin. June sales have varied from a low of 18,032 in 2008 to a high of 40,156 in 2005. Last month’s sales count was 26.1 percent below the June average of 27,772. Among all months, June has had the highest number of sales most often – in eight of the past 23 years.

In June last year, which logged the most transactions in 2010, sales were bolstered by state and federal efforts to stimulate the housing market via homebuyer tax credits. Those credits had expired or been largely depleted by July 2010, when sales plunged about 21 percent from both the month before and a year earlier. Southland sales have fallen short of the year-ago level every month since then.

“The housing market remains dysfunctional and lopsided, just somewhat less so than it was a few months or a year ago. The market mix indicates that a lot of potential buyers are either stuck, for lack of equity, or spooked and are waiting things out. Another large, lingering problem is the fussy mortgage market. Qualifying for a mortgage remains difficult for many, and the use of adjustable-rate and “jumbo” home purchase loans remains far below the historical norm,” said John Walsh, DataQuick president.

The median price paid for all new and resale Southland houses and condos purchased last month was $285,000. That was up 1.8 percent from $280,000 in May and the highest since $290,000 last December, but still down 5.0 percent from $300,000 in June 2010.

The median has declined year-over-year for the past four months. It has been unchanged or lower than a year earlier each month since last December, when it posted a 0.3 percent annual increase.

On a year-over-year basis, home sales fell across virtually all price categories last month. But declines were greatest in the $300,000 to $800,000 range, which saw sales drop 25.5 percent from June 2010. Activity in that price band benefitted a year ago from homebuyer tax credits that spurred more move-up activity. Last month’s sales of homes priced below $200,000 fell 11.4 percent from a year earlier, while $800,000-plus sales dropped 17.6 percent.

Distressed property sales accounted for just over half of the Southland resale market last month. Roughly one out of three homes resold was a foreclosure, while almost one in five was a “short sale.”

Foreclosure resales – properties foreclosed on in the prior 12 months – made up 33.0 percent of the Southland resale market in June, down from 33.2 percent in May but up from 32.8 percent a year earlier. Foreclosure resales peaked at 56.7 percent in February 2009.

Short sales, where the sale price fell short of what was owed on the property, made up an estimated 17.7 percent of Southland resales last month. That was the same as in May but down from 20.5 percent a year ago. Two years ago the estimate was 13.5 percent.

The typical monthly mortgage payment that Southland buyers committed themselves to paying was $1,169 last month, up 1.3 percent from $1,154 in May but down 5.9 percent from $1,251 in June 2010. Adjusted for inflation, current payments are 49.5 percent below typical payments in the spring of 1989, the peak of the prior real estate cycle. They are 58.7 percent below the current cycle’s peak in July 2007.

Sales Volume Median Price
All homes Jun-10 Jun-11 %Chng Jun-10 Jun-11 %Chng
Los Angeles 7,849 6,809 -13.30% $335,000 $318,000 -5.10%
Orange 3,423 2,947 -13.90% $445,000 $445,000 0.00%
Riverside 4,645 3,960 -14.70% $210,000 $200,000 -4.80%
San Bernardino 3,179 2,598 -18.30% $160,000 $148,000 -7.50%
San Diego 3,885 3,444 -11.40% $335,500 $330,000 -1.60%
Ventura 890 774 -13.00% $384,000 $355,000 -7.60%
SoCal 23,871 20,532 -14.00% $300,000 $285,000 -5.00%