Tuesday, January 15, 2008

The advantages of not buying at the peak

here's a story of three identical homes. Two were bought near the peak and one was purchased a couple of years before the peak.

Our most recent purchase is 1645 MONTE MAR ST, Corona, CA 92881, This 3486 sq/ft 5 bedroom home was purchased Feb 06 for $913K. This gave the original owner a healthy profit of $439k (less fees) in only 2 1/2 years. Yea, no bubble here! After only a couple of years the current owner has decided to sell and is seeking $999k. Looks like he did not get the memo about the bubble popping. (sorry no pics yet). This is another Realtard that just listed this home when there is an identical model home around the corner listed 30% less. WTF??

Just around the corner but on a better lot is 3940 Via Miguel ST, Same house but on a better lot (no house behind) and it has a nice canyon view. The back yard is well landscaped and it has a pool and hot tub. This guy picked up his home in June 05 for $850k. This gave the original owner a payday of $370k in just 17 months. He has listed his home for the ambitious price of $860k.

The problem for the first two homes is an original owner at 1686 Anacapa CRK. This home has the best lot of the three. It sits on a cul-de-sac with a nice canyon view out the back. The back yard does not have a pool but it's nice with a bbq, fire pit and patio. This guy only paid $450k back in 03. He should have plenty of equity unless he refi'd and cashed it all out. He missed the big paydays the first two original owners got but if he can get his $699k asking price he still stands to make a healthy profit. Obviously the first two have no chance of selling with this home priced $300k and $250k less than the other 2. Sadly this home has almost no chance of selling either. There are similar homes nearby for far less. I think this home will need to come down another$150k to $200k before it has a chance.

Just for kicks lets take a look at what you would need to buy this home at it's current price and using traditional lending standards.

Price: ...................... $699,000
Down payment needed... $140,000
Required income.......... $175,000/yr (yea, the IE is full of couples making $175k/yr)

financing $560k 30 yrs at 7% (ave jumbo rate) = $3725/mo
Taxes in this home 1.8%, 12,600/yr .............$1050/mo
Insurance 200/mo

Total monthly payment would be approx $4975. Which is fine I guess if you are making $175k/yr. Even at that level of income this home would eat up a large portion of their take home pay though.


JoePro said...

They sure are building some ugly homes out in the IE. And what is with the little garage doors? My wife would clean off the side mirrors on her car so fast if we lived in those places. She can barely get the damn car into a two car without bouncing it off something.

$175k? I sure as heck don't hang out with anyone making that kind of bank. The funny thing is I have several friend that bought $700k homes and they are probably making around $100k if they are lucky. I expect they will be adding to the foreclosure numbers in Chino Hills soon enough.

Good info, keep it up!

Joe P

Anonymous said...

I second that. Those are some ugly ass $800,000 houses.

Robert in Highland

FM71 said...

Hey joepro,

I think that I would be pretty pissed off having to buy and deal with three garage door openers and their remotes!!

Anonymous said...

one of my friends sold his home for $370k. it is a 1988 home.

Anonymous said...

So What? The "vintage" of a home matters little. It's the size the area and the condition that affect the price. $370k for what, where, did he make money or lose money. How about a detail or two?

toothlesselsinorewhore said...

If you look there is a double car garage off to the side and then two single car garages.

As for the single car garages well out here in the IE everyone has a motorcycle, either a chopper/harley or a dirtbike, and you have to have a garage just for that (I do) and the second single garage is where you stack either the Pabst Blue Ribbon or Schlitz cases because you can't have a shortage of either.

golfer_X said...

That's handy, making the two car garage the one you have to turn 90 degrees to get into. My wife or oldest daughter would scrape the side of the car for sure with that setup. I just got done replacing the passenger side mirror on the wife's Durango thanks to a "garage mishap".

I don't own a bike, I must have missed that on the application form when I emigrated to the IE from the coast. And I only drink real beer like Guinness or Newcastle. Hell I'm all screwed up. I am predicting a beer shortage though. Beer sales always go up during a recession. This one is gonna be a doozy so beer sales should be epic. Buy beer stock!

mr_moppy said...

You are right on about that beer shortage. I just read yesterday that due to all the govt. subsidies to grow corn, farmers are ditching the hops and growing corn, which means a shortage of beer and higher prices.