Thursday, January 3, 2008

SCPGA community in Beaumont goes KABOOM

In early October I took a look at the homes around the new SCPGA Golf Course in Beaumont. This was intended to be a new "upscale" community. In October there were some serious declines but the lowest priced homes were still over $400K. I don't recall seeing anything listed under $400k when I searched in October. Today is a different story, there are nearly 20 homes under $400k and about 1/2 of them are around $300k.

I found 7 homes listed under $300K, with the price leader being
35593 Trevino TRL, Beaumont, CA 92223 listed for $259k ($98 s/f). It looks like this was bought new in March 2006 for $464. Pick it up today at 44% off!

There are another 13 between $300k and $350k. The price leader in this range is 37137 Brutus WAY, with a price of $349 it barely made it but at 3934 s/f it works out to $89 s/f. This is an even newer home sold in June 2006 for $518k. Pick it up today at 33% off.

There are another 17 homes priced from $350 to $400K. This is not the best deal as far as the numbers go but I'de probably pick 36010 Eagle LN as the best deal in this group. It's a nice single story on a 1/3 acre lot and it has a very nice pool and hot tub. Not bad for $395 if it were anywhere but Beaumont. This home sold new for $579 in April of 2005. Pick it up today at 32% off

All of these homes have lost approx $200k (plus any upgrades, like the $60k pool) in a year or two. With the price leaders under $100 s/f and one under $90 s/f we can see where Beaumont is heading. Prices out there will be well under $100 s/f before long.


Tyrone said...

If this community fails, those homes will go to... ZERO.

golfer_X said...

It's not gonna fail, those courses are too nice. It's right off the 10 fwy making it handy for those super-commuters or people that work in Redlands/Loma Linda areas. I know a couple of nurses that work at Loma Linda medical center that have indicated they are going to buy in there once the prices settle down.

Anonymous said...

I think you're doing a good service by letting everyone know about the price falls and the great deals coming on the market. But don't you think that helps increase buyer demand and keeps prices from falling further?

golfer_X said...

The prices need to fall back to normal levels. Home prices have been in line with rental prices pretty much forever. They have also been in line with income just about as far back as you can research. In the last 5 or 6 years home prices became disconnected from income and rental prices. There were many factors that made this happen such as access to easy money through loose lending, low interest rates and creative loan programs, fraud, rampant speculation and the promise of huge profits. These drove prices artificially high. Until they come back down the real estate market will be a mess. In a normal ecomomy it's not good if home owners are spending 50% of there income on a mortgage. That leaves nothing left to buy TVs take vacations etc. Our economy is driven by consumption if people have no money to spend our whole ecomony goes in the crapper. People have to stop thinking of houses as an investment. They are not, they are simply a place to live. Houses over the last 500 years have barely kept pace with inflation. They go up in value 3% or 4% a year in normal markets. Invest in stocks or bonds, LIVE in your house. Don't you want your kids to be able to afford a house? If house prices stay high or continued to appreciate at 20% a year they would be unaffordable to just about anyone in 10 years.

Buyers will appear when the prices fall back to the "nromal" levels. Once that happens the prices should stabalize. But to get to those levels prices really need to go back to where they were in 2001/2002.

toothlesselsinorewhore said...

In about two weeks I'm going to have the perfect starter house up for sale.

Stick Built 3/2 1150 square footer on a 7800 sq. foot lot for 155k in the Lake Elsinore area. Ultra low maintenance, nothing fancy type house for the type of person who doesn't want to have to worry about upkeep on something big and/or fancy. Or for a landlord looking for a make sense rental. It should rent for 1200 per month no problem.

Anonymous said...

then why ya sellin it

Anonymous said...

golfer_x -
I agree with all of that. What I meant was that by announcing that a particular house is now at a reasonable price many people may see it on this blog and go bid the price up. Then you and I won't be able to get that super great price. That's my hypothesis anyway. Don't know if it holds water.

golfer_X said...

I think most of the people reading Real Estate blogs are already aware of what the market is doing (crashing). I doubt they will be bidding on any houses featured in any of these blogs since most are still WAY overpriced.

If I do feature a home that is a bargain I can assure you that enough people will have already found it via their realtors or on the web.