Monday, September 8, 2008

The weekly tumble

After a few week of stagnation the downward trek has started again. There wasn't much movement in the median asking price for Riverside/San Berdu through much of August. Only 2 percent down in the core areas but the county saw a monthly drop of 4%. It seememd like less but the data shows we are still dropping at a decent pace.
This week is once again seeing noticeable downward movement in the prices. It might be a fluke, I would have expected the prices to remain more stable for another month, especially since the sales numbers have been a little better lately. I have been seeing the prices dropping again lately in the areas that I am looking at. It was getting a little frustrating watching the prices level off for a couple of months there. Even though I know it's normal for that to happen in the summer, I still found it irritating.


From housingtracker.net

Here are the county wide numbers,

Trend09/08/20081 month3 month6 month12 month
Median Price$239,900-4.0%-14.0%-25.0%-37.7%
Inventory46,403+2.8%-1.9%-5.7%-18.0%


DateInventory
(SFH + Condo)
25th Percentile50th Percentile
(Median)
75th Percentile
09/08/200846,403$170,000$239,900$350,000
09/01/200844,714$174,900$244,900$354,000
08/25/200844,833$175,000$249,000$359,000
08/18/200845,096$179,000$249,900$359,999
08/11/200845,138$179,900$249,999$365,000


Here are the numbers for the core areas,

Trend09/07/20081 month3 month6 month12 month
Median Price$244,900-2.0%-12.5%-26.9%-41.7%
Inventory14,569+3.9%+6.7%+1.9%-11.8%

Historical Data

DateInventory25th Percentile50th Percentile
(Median)
75th Percentile
09/07/200814,569$179,900$244,900$340,000
09/01/200813,852$180,000$248,000$345,000
08/29/200813,590$180,000$249,000$349,000
08/21/200813,661$184,900$249,900$349,900
08/14/200814,047$185,000$250,000$349,900
08/07/200814,017$186,900$250,000$350,000

2 comments:

nmoerbeek said...

What is the metric you are going to use when you decide it is the right time to buy?

golfer_X said...

I don't have a metric. If I see a house I like and the price is comfortable I will buy it. By comfortable I mean that I can EASILY afford while still maxing out my 401K and being able to go on vacation and buy toys. I would like to buy a house that is 3X my income (after 401K) and have that house be what I want in an area I want.

Traditional metrics/logic say buy when its cheaper than renting. And if you are going to use this metric you should use it correctly. Factor in tax savings, monthly maintenance costs, lost interest from any down payment etc. If the math is done correctly it's still very hard to find a house where buying works out less than renting unless you look in Hemet, MoVal or similar locals.

Personally I feel if you are planning on keeping the house less than 5 years then don't even bother looking to buy. With few exceptions I think you'd lose money.

I plan on being in my next house for 20 years or more. For this reason I am not quite so concerned about buying at the bottom (which I don't think we will see for a few years).

I'm concerned with buying the house I want at the price I want. They are not quite there just yet. Who knows maybe they will never get there and i will have to adjust my want list. I think they will hit my target by next spring though. They are so close now I can taste it. In fact one just hit the market this week under my target price but the lack of landscaping kills it.