Monday, June 16, 2008

More ugly numbers

Here's the weekly update for the median listing prices from As you can see the price reductions continue, averaging about $3k per week still. The inventory numbers continue to hold steady. Some weeks are up a few hundred and some down. Although there was a big increase in the core areas this week, putting us up nearly 7% over a month ago.

here's the county wide numbers,

Trend06/16/20081 month3 month6 month12 month
Median Price$275,000-4.8%-13.9%-21.4%-31.2%

(SFH + Condo)
25th Percentile50th Percentile
75th Percentile

And here's the core area numbers.

Trend06/14/20081 month3 month6 month12 month
Median Price$275,000-6.7%-16.6%-27.4%-37.5%

DateInventory25th Percentile50th Percentile
75th Percentile

More juicy tidbits.....

There are so many ugly reports hitting the presses today it's hard to pick just a few to paraphrase. Here's a taste of the latest real estate news.

Hard hit cities like Sacramento, Phoenix and Las Vegas are set for more steep losses. Some real estate experts are bracing for price drops of as much as 50%.

( -- With home prices plunging by more than 30% in some markets, bargain-hunters are ready to pounce.

But it may pay for buyers to wait. Many housing experts say that the worst-hit metro areas have even farther to fall, and could see total drops of as much as 50%.

This correction was inevitable, in Youngblood's opinion; home price gains had simply out-paced income by far too much to be sustained.

Historically, home prices have averaged about four times wages. Whenever homes got significantly more expensive, people could not afford to buy and home prices fell back.

But local price-to-income ratios are still out of whack even after steep price declines, which means prices have further to fall. In Los Angeles, where the ratio peaked at 22.7, according to Youngblood, it's still in the high teens. Home prices would have to come down another 40% or so to get that ratio back into the single digits.

The spring activity usually expected in Southern California's housing market was another disappointment last month. Shoppers looking for bargains helped push the region's home sales higher in May compared to April, but it was still the fewest May home sales in the last 20 years.

Is America's suburban dream collapsing into a nightmare?

Nelson also estimates that in 2025 there will be a surplus of 22 million large-lot homes that will not be left vacant in a suburban wasteland but instead occupied by lower classes who have been driven out of their once affordable inner-city apartments and houses.

The so-called McMansion, he said, will become the new multi-family home for the poor.

"What is going to happen is lower and lower-middle income families squeezed out of downtown and glamorous suburban locations are going to be pushed economically into these McMansions at the suburban fringe," said Nelson. "There will probably be 10 people living in one house."


Jeff said...

How come you haven't posted that YOY unit sales for May in Riverside County have increased 4%?

golfer_X said...

Eh, I did, it's in the last post!

bigdog76 said...

Any word on the 30 year fixed rate coming down it was like 5.8 two weeks ago til Ben made big annocentments on the economy

and now it is like 6.6 that is crazy
the house can be a good price but theses rates will keep buyers away I suspect right?
I will wait til it drops for sure.

P.S My landlord just up my rent $75 a month ouch pissed at her right now. But not worth jumping ship til I buy the house.

golfer_X said...

I'd be tellin the landlord to pound sand. Any landlord upping rents now is walking on thin ice. If anything rents are dropping in the IE. Many of the large apartment complexes have big signs up offering move in deals.

Jeff said...

golfer, yeah it's in the last post in a table with numbers all smashed together that you can barely make out. Yet you bolded all of the negative numbers in the analysis. You seem to put emphasis on all the negative but when there is a little glimmer of a positive it is in a table of numbers all smashed together that you can barely make out. That reminds me of main stream media sensational reporting.

I'm not saying we've hit bottom but I think the first positive number would make enough news to at least get some bold type if not it's own post.

If a new $700k, etc. club member shows up you are all over it with a detailed post.

Obviously 1 month does not make a trend but trends always start with 1 month.

I'm just calling it how I see it. You do have some informative postings. There are Kool Aid drinkers on both sides of the fence.

golfer_X said...

I'm not sure I'de consider it a positive number just yet. Sure it's up a few percent but it's still the second worst May on record. The numbers will have to start looking better soon since last year was so bad. Especially late last year. I seriously doubt this fall will be worse than last fall. Because last fall was absolutley horrid. I'm sure the NAR and CAR will announce the better numbers as some kind of indication that the worst is behind us. It might be, who knows but with the economy in the crapper and a gazillion foreclosures still heading at us like a Cat-5 hurricane I seriously doubt we are going to see any real good news anytime soon.

Sorry about the hard to read chart. The freaking column widths on this google page are just way too narrow.

ruvanvi5 said...

X, I just got off the phone with my mortgage "Advisor" and she told me that interest rates for a 30 year fixed just went up to 6.75. I am pre-approved for a $400k loan and that jump from 6.35 to 6.75 will change my payment quite a bit. She seems to think that rates will go up to 7% or more in the coming months. How do you think this will affect the market. She seems to think that this is the best time to buy before interest rates go higher and my potential house payment goes up as well. I would seem to think that in this economy, the higher the interest rates go up the more pressure selling prices will have and then eventually go down even more.

Your thoughts!!!