Saturday, May 3, 2008

Open thread, Lets' hear your opinion

Golfer-X is taking the family on a cruise for the next week. Rather than having a week of silence, please let's hear what you all think of the current market. What are you seeing in your area?

Have fun, see you in a week!

28 comments:

Martin Burtin said...

Tropical breezes at your back
Gentle seas
Tasty and plentiful food
Fine wine and beverage
Friendly, willing and competent crew
Women of good humor and few garments
May you have an excellent cruise, Golfer!

whoadude said...

I've been watching the Copperleaf neighborhood in South Corona for awhile now. The area is great nestled along the hills of Cleavland National Forest and offers great views depending on the house. The plan 3 built by Centex there seems to be extremely popular. One of these popped up a few weeks ago with an asking price of $515K as a short sale, and received over 20 offers on it.
http://www.redfin.com/CA/CORONA/3255-CLEARING-CIR-92882/home/6666013

For some reason it fell out of escrow earlier this week and the frenzy started again for this house. I even threw a bid hoping to get in but in a matter of days it sold to a cash buyer.

I found out that another plan 3 popped up in the area just the other week and the listing agent had to take the sign down because she had too many offers on it! Insane.

BerthaJean said...

20 Offers!?!? We must have hit the BOTTOM!


NOT!!!!!!!!!!


I won't be surprised to see inventories drop and pricing flatten a bit over the next few months, but we aren't at the bottom yet. Still too many overpriced McMansions and too few qualified buyers. Things will be lower 12 months from now.

ButterMonkey said...

I see the engines in your boat going kaput and, lucky you, the Disney ship is the closest vessel, so it swings on by to pick you up.

Just think you, the wife, the tropics, and 1000s of screaming brats. AAAH what a time!

LOL!

Totally joking. Have a wonderful time X!

As for the market, I want to scream right now, so I won't comment....actually yes, I WILL comment. It will be good therapy. STOP OVERPRICING YOUR HOMES DAMNIT!

Ah, thank you for allowing me to vent. I feel better now.

Santa Ana River Rat said...

Check the tax rate on the parcels you are looking at. Copperleaf is pretty loaded last time I checked.

Seth Dallob said...

From http://www.mountainupdate.com/wwwmountainupdatecom/2008/04/crestline-reo-p.html, which is complete realtor drivel blog about the SB Mountains.

"This morning I searched the Rim Association of Realtors MLS to determine how many homes had sold in the Crestline/Lake Gregory market over the last 90 days. The total number was 17. 13 of which were bank owned REO properties.

The REO market for the last 90 days represents 76% of closings. I would suggest this is not a healty number. The total number of listings available for sale as of today is 177 with 17 of those being bank owned REO properties. In active listings the REO properties represent approx. 10%.

The good news is that in the Crestline market there are currently 29 properties currently under contract and in escrow. Of these properties 10 are bank owned representing 34% of the market.

It appears that the Crestline/Lake Gregory market is gaining some momentum and the percentage of non-bank owned properties is on the decline. This is good news for homeowners in this market looking to sell their property."

If that's the best spin you can put on the data, erf is all I can say. As a mountain homeowner, the only thing I can take solace in is that there isn't that much to fall - I bought my house for $95k in 2003 and it's probably sellable for around $140k now (about 60k off peak by my guess). While the % is big, the $ are small.

TARZAN said...

It is pretty nice up there near Clearing, check out the little canyon in the swest corner KB I think Orange something, pretty quite but don't buy into the bullsh*t...sure they may be getting a few of the 500k ones snapped up but it is all a ruse created by the realtor's and the people who believe it or who need to buy now before they bk or they are moving or they want a "deal"...$100 a foot!!!!!!
If you buy for more just do it for other reasons not because you think your missing something.
My humble opine.

Martin Burtin said...

Yup, I looked at Copperleaf too. A few of the big homes have flirted with my (non)sense of housing avarice as the listing prices teased me around the $500K mark. Then I looked up the taxes as the river rat suggested and after a quick inspection of the rates, my Copperleaf induced woody has subsided. Some are very nice homes, if you can justify the coin it would take to live there.

Actually those are not the only nice homes burdened by ridiculous taxes, there are many. I am beginning to think that this market will need a combination of things to happen, to get vacant homes occupied by people who can afford them:

1. We need lower prices that equate to payments that people can afford. 2. We need financing that people can reasonably qualify for at attractive rates and terms that a 6th grader can understand.
3. We need property taxes that are affordable, not onerous.
4. And we need an economy where we can keep reliably earning our pay checks.

I hear people talking about prices and financing and everyone is worried about jobs, but to get some of these blighted neighborhoods occupied again something has to be done about the tax burden.

LovesAmber said...

My husband and I went looking at the Preserves in Chino yesterday.

We stopped at Meritage homes communities- Willow Lane and Jasmine Park- the lady at the office told us they are no longer building. They said what they paid for the land they cannot build on it at a profit.

Can anyone tell me about The Preserves? We were interested in a home in the Hidden Hollow area.
There seems to be a huge tax liabilty with these homes- the HOA dues are listed at $185 for ones for sale right now privately.

That's an extra 1200 a month you can look forawrd to in taxes and dues. Scary.

bigdog76 said...

The wife and I took a drive to check out the Eastvale area of Corona yesterday. We had lunch at Quiznos the whole shot. I am looking at the this area and Fontana. I was impressed. The cow smell wasnt as bad as I though it was going to be but maybe that it is worse in the middle of the hot summer.

One thing I noticed a big difference was that this area was nice and quiet and the houses were more spaced out rodes were much wider. I like that. North Fontana area the rodes are narrow houses closer together smaller lots.

I did see a lot of Foreclosures for sure thought. I popped my head in on a new community of Centex homes.
They started at $409,000 for 2800sq feet that was there cheapest house. They went all the way up to $550,000 which was way to high. Way over priced for the area. There is plenty of REO in the area that are much bigger and way cheaper than this. They were offering $25,000 towards closing cost and any other money left over you could buy down the rate or upgrades which was nice but the price of the houses was still to high.

Golfer X mentioned he thinks the larger homes will be in the 80sq range at some point. What does he consider larger??

They have houses up to 4400 sq feet in theses areas. Houses are very big in person for sure.

I would like to pick up a 4000 sq foot plus for the $80 per sq foot price what are my chances?
And what does everyone consider small?

anonymous said...

No opinions but I'd like to thank you for this blog. It's very interesting reading and you do a great job detailing the mess in the IE.

And you do it without the stupid nonsense of song lyrics and other off-topic junk seen over on the Irvine Housing Blog. Your posts are straight to the point and based on the numbers.

Thanks!

anonymous said...

The smell in Eastvale is usually better on hot days. It seems worst in the winter/spring months. The flies are what's bad in the summer months.

Even if you can't smell anything, it's still in an area of the worst air pollution in the US. I don't know why anyone would want to live there.

Property taxes are insane around here. I wouldn't pay 5k/year in tax to live anywhere in the IE. Not even in Corona which is undeniably the best part of the IE.

Since 12/06 I've been renting at about 70% of the owners carry costs. Somehow they haven't let it go back to the bank yet. It's lost 35% off the price they paid. I'm looking to buy but it won't be in the IE and a large reason for that is high property taxes. Living in the IE isn't worth even half of what typical property taxes are running.

Paige said...

Went looking for open houses today in Riverside (one specific zip code). I found 2. There were several people at each home.

At the 1st open house they were asking $364,000. A lady joked that she would pay $300,000. The agent said she could try and the lady walked out. I walked up stairs with a couple who owned a home a few streets over. They were upset that the asking price was so low. The man mumbled that their situation didn't look good and that people got in over their heads.

The 2nd home was already sold , but the agent was trying to drum up business.

I looked at another house yesterday where several buyers were there as well.

The problem is (besides prices being too high still) that these lower priced REOs are trickling in and there are multiple buyers for each home. If the banks would drop their prices at the same time, that would help!

dreamcometrue said...

I'm a little worried. We're looking to sell our turn-key 3 bed,2 bath 1,100+ sqft. home in Mira Loma. The market is low & We are going to price accordingly. How is the market for these smaller homes? Are there any other sellers like me selling, or are they all reo?

I'm Not POTUS said...

At the top of the market Dairy farmers were selling parcels at 1 million an acre. At the top of the market developers paid top dollar for the infrastructure. At the top of the market land developers charged home builders top dollar.
The late to the party costs for the Preserve will mean that those pads will end up in BK repo limbo.
The preserve won't have a school for decades. Most of the walk-aways will be picked up by "cash" investors and you could look forward to section 8 neighbors if you stick it out.
On the bright side you can watch the planes of fame airshow from your postage stamp backyard.

monkeyking79 said...

Golfer-z
you definitely deserve this vacation. wish you enjoy all the fun .
so far, i see the price dropping in 92883. part of the bigger homes already declind to under $90 sqft. they all seemed nice. i have no idea about Molla roo or HOA fee. but if this is going to happen to other area in the near future. that will be great for those who are waiting to buy. guess your dollars are more valuable for dream house at that price.

bigdog76 said...

By far this is the best deal in Eastvale Corona.
I would offer them $330,000 because that is my limit but I think It will sale in 1-3 days tops
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Corona/7878-Warbler-Ct-92880/home/8164827

bigdog76 said...

Sorry here is the complete link

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Corona/
7878-Warbler-Ct-92880/home/8164827

Paige said...

Multiple offers. Why are people actually offering asking price and higher on these homes in Riverside?? Don't they know prices will go down if they offer less or hold out? There were 7 other people looking at a specific house today. Completely annoying.

Sean said...

thats buyers getting a damn good deal for right now at least. of course it probably still will drop a bunch more but you never know. there's probably a 5-10% chance the mid-300s is the bottom for eastvale... those are 2002 prices...


http://eastvalehousing.wordpress.com/

bigdog76 said...

You really think the mid 300's in eastvale is the lowest they will hit huh?

I have noticed some lower prices. But when you look at them on Redfin map detail and pull back to get a broader view of the neighborhood you will notice a great big old cow pasture sitting 50 yards from some of theses houses. I dont mind moving there but I dont want to be that close the the cow smell and flies.

Santa Ana River Rat said...

speaking of semi-juice-induced buying frenzy these days, does anyone have recent data on corona escrow activities? I hear a lot of FHA are not getting approved.

Mike said...

I find myself continually amazed that the CAR hasn't had a big meeting with all the remaining agents and told them in no uncertain terms (maybe screamed at them would be better) that they MUST contact all their listings and insist that they be priced or repriced to real market prices now (make that NOW).

That simple act would jump start what remains of a market and the knifecatchers, er, I mean the ready buyers would show up with their cash burning a hole in their pocket.

The "right-priced" sales that generate multiple offers are as good as proof that this tonic is needed.

If the buyer or bank or kool-aid drinker is unwilling to part with their drug of choice and re-price, then they should be dropped summarily as a listing until they are ready or the market finally re-flates back to their price in 2015.

I'm afraid the agents are their own worst enemy at the moment. The agents with their own high priced listing should talk to themselves until they either get it -- or get committed to a funny farm.

It does make for nice fodder for your blog though....:-)

Thank you for staying on topic and focused in your postings. It's appreciated.

Enjoy the cruise, you've earned it.

phiphibone said...

Might find this mapping from the Fed interesting.
http://www.newyorkfed.org/mortgagemaps/

Shows concentrations of problem loans by zip code and county

Sean said...

no i said there is about a 5-10% chance that mid-300s will be the bottom. The more likely scenario is that the market will "over correct" as many have been predicting for a while now. Just as it went up way to far it will probably reactively go way too low... then remain constant for a while... then once the economy picks up the prices will slowly tick up at a more reasonable pace similar to regular inflation as they are supposed to....

dreamcometrue said...

With the prices of gas and commodities rising; and for the majority of the population, working wages are sinking, along with job scarcity.. this housing mess still has a long way down. We're in the middle of a HUGE downward spiral. Now, it's just a matter of time before the over-eager investors drop this bubble they're artificially holding up. (Making multiple-offers INSANE. Completely Irrational. It's an Old Realtors trick; Price shockingly LOW, draw interest, and cause a bidding war. Yet, it still works like bees to honey.)
This downward spiral affects ALL property owners in ways we can’t imagine. The worst part is that it's a self-feeding, self-fulfilling crash and it won’t be through until it has chewed up every aspect of our economy. It’s like Domino’s, you can’t stop ‘em from falling now. Just in case you might reject this 'negativity‘, look around you and the people you know. Look how gas, commodities, job wages, job scarcity are affecting them. This is where it starts. We are all in for a long bumpy landing. Brace yourself. This is just the beginning! The waves & aftershocks from this housing crash will continue to affect us until all is broken. The good news is that maybe, just maybe, we will all learn from everyone’s mistakes. Then, we can responsibly try again LATER (keyword people… Patience!). Anyone who paints a prettier picture is for sure a Salesman (or an idiot).

golfer_X said...

Well at least it was not totally dead around here without me. Glad to see that!

The cruise was a blast but I will need another week to recover and detox I think. I'll get some new posts up soon hopefully.

tmoore9899 said...

I am looking to buy in the Corona area in the zip code 92880. I am a very patient woman and I would like to know do people think the price will get down to around $250,000. I know that KB homes right off of Archibald is selling brand new homes built in 2008 for 372,000 on larger parcels between 7500 and 9000 square foot lots. I do not understand how existing homes can be priced at more on much smaller lots. The way I see it most of the existing homes should be priced between $300,000 and $350,000. I am not in the real estate business I have just done my homework on the area. The area does still have the cow smell and flies. Which becomes a big issue in a down market. I would just like to see if my thinking is reasonable or am I too high. Thanks