Monday, April 28, 2008

The weekly numbers

Here are the latest weekly numbers for NOTE: these are the median LISTING prices and not the selling prices.

I usually only post the county wide numbers from housing tracker for Riverside and San Bernardino. This week I have posted those and then the numbers for just the core IE areas. You can see from the two sets that the core areas are falling a little faster and have fallen farther than the larger area has. That's probably to be expected since most of the largest price run ups were in these core areas.

Trend04/28/20081 month3 month6 month12 month
Median Price$299,000-3.5%-12.0%-19.2%-27.9%

(SFH + Condo)
25th Percentile50th Percentile
75th Percentile

Here are the numbers for the city of Riverside and surrounding areas including Corona, Fontana. Mira Loma. Norco, MoVal and Perris. These numbers differ slightly from the first set which are for the entire Riverside San Berdu metropolitan areas including Temecula Valley and Palm Springs areas witha total of 48,253 listings. This set of numbers is just the core area of the IE and only looks at about 15,000 listings. It's interesting to note the differences between the two charts. The core areas are dropping faster and farther than the larger area is. As you can see the core area has dropped 6.3% in the last month and 15.5 in the last 3 months. Where the larger data set only dropped 3.5% last month and 12% over the last 3. My guess is that the inclusion of the desert areas is probably helping that larger data set. With the exception of Indio and Desert Hot Springs the desert has not tanked quite as bad as the rest of the IE.

Also you might note that last weeks 50th percentile number only dropped $100 for the larger county wide area but it dropped 10K in the core areas. (10K in ONE week!). This week is only $100 but that keeps the average decline at about $4k to $5k per week in the core areas.

Trend04/28/20081 month3 month6 month12 month
Median Price$299,900-6.3%-15.5%-24.8%-33.4%

DateInventory25th Percentile50th Percentile
75th Percentile

I think it's fairly obvious that the price declines are still going at full steam ahead!

And Now a message from the Founder of KB Homes!

April 28 (Bloomberg) -- Eli Broad, a philanthropist and co- founder of KB Home, the fifth-largest U.S. homebuilder by revenue, said he expects home prices to drop another 20 percent.

``I don't think we're anywhere near a bottom in housing,'' Broad told Bloomberg TV at the Milken Institute Conference in Beverly Hills, California. ``We're going to have a big inventory of unsold, unoccupied homes that's going to take three or four years to clear out.''

So, we are down about 30% already and another 20% puts us at 50%. I think that's in the ball park. It all depends on the local area and how crazy it went during the bubble. Some areas may only tank 40% but I would not be surprised to see some fall 60% or more.


ButterMonkey said...

I'm lovin' those numbers. Maybe I'll print them out and mail them to every loser who has his/her 3 bed/2 bath in Riverside listed for $550,000.

I'm sick of all of the sellers on that are STILL on bubble crack. I think there needs to be a new entry in the dictionary under the word "stupidity": listing your house in 2008 for a 2005/2006 price.

Sean said...

how did you get numbers for the "Core IE areas"? I checked housingtracker and it just shows numbers for the whole riv-sbu-ont.

Are you using trulia or something?

golfer_X said...

Both the data sets are from Housing Tracker but the core numbers are from the old site. The old housing tracker has the core numbers and the new one has the larger set.

Sean said...

ah good stuff. Thanks!