Monday, April 21, 2008

This weeks median listing prices

Not much movement this week except in the high end. The high end dropped $4k this week and the low end lost $1k. The middle median was basically unchanged, only losing $100. Inventory dropped slightly but remained about the same as last year. Over the last 3 months the inventory has been nearly flat. Much of the reason for this is the dreamers are pulling their listings leaving the banks, short sales and the desperate. Sales numbers are still being nearly offset by new REO's, keeping the inventory up. The last report I read indicated something close to 60% of the sales are now foreclosed properties. The high end of the market is basically dead. Very little over $600k is selling in the IE (as it should be because very few people can actually afford a home over 600k).

I've noticed a trend in the last few weeks regarding the new REO listings (in Corona and Riverside). Many of them are actually hitting the market with a decent price. It looks like a few of the REO agents are catching on. The buyers that are out there are only looking at the lowest priced units. The only way to get their attention is to hit the market low and hope for multiple bids. This is good news because as more and more agents try this tactic they will have to undercut one another for it to work. Some areas like Murrietta, MoVal and Perris have already seen prices fall 50% or more on the units that are selling. Those areas are probably close to being back in line with traditional values (on the homes that are selling). Hopefully the core areas will see some more movement they have another 25% to 30% still to go.

Here are the median asking numbers from

Trend04/21/20081 month3 month6 month12 month
Median Price$299,900-4.8%-12.8%-20.0%-27.7%

(SFH + Condo)
25th Percentile50th Percentile
75th Percentile


bigdog76 said...

With the medium price not dropping much this week, what does all this mean? Is this a sign it is starting to flatten. Or just adjusting?

I would like to see some of thoses reo prices in 92336 area drop to say some of the Eastvale area of Corona prices. That is what I am shooting for in the next 6 months or so. Do I have a chance in this area? Right now $112 a sq ft is the best deal I would like to see it at $100 for me do I have a chance?

Golfer X you are right about us looking at the lower priced homes. If the Reo starting hitting the market lower it will spark more interest.

golfer_X said...

The median not dropping much this week means nothing. It's statistical noise. It had been averaging $3k per month but for the last few weeks it was dropping $5k per week. There are going to be wide fluctuations in nearly all these charts, graphs and averages that get posted. You can just look at on week. You need to look at 3 months at a minimum and then see what the trend is. So far the trend is down and if anything it's speeding up.

This time of year is typically the best time of year in the real estate biz. So don't be surprised if prices level off a bit (so far they haven't). Sales numbers should increase this time of year too. Don't misinterpret that to mean the market is turning around, it's not. I think the real test will be in the fall. Let the knife catchers buy now, they need to be weeded out of the buyer pool. Hopefully that will happen by the fall.