Tuesday, April 1, 2008

Delusional seller of the week

How much is a nice pool worth? Most people will say nothing, because they don't want a pool. In most cases a pool adds very little to the value of a house. Our delusional seller believes his pool is worth a whopping $300,000!

7704 Jayhawk Dr sits above the Indian Hills golf course (on the 4th or 5th hole I think). These houses were built in the mid 90s during the last slump when prices were at the bottom. They sold for around $150k to 200k if memory serves me right. This home is 2861 sq/ft and has 4 bedrooms and 3 baths. It sits on a 1/4 acre lot and like I mentioned, has a bitchin' pool. Our delusional seller has listed his home at $640k. About $10k less than he paid for in in Aug 05. (This home just listed 15 days ago). Still well over 3 times what it sold for new just 12 years ago.

The listing agent is excited about this house. Just listen to what she has to say

Please, some one call Ms. Dora Sandoval and tell her that Expectacular is not a word! This is another weak-ass listing. Not to mention they have it listed about 50% higher than it should be. I wonder if she even checked the comps. Nice pics too.....

Here's the closest comp. 7794 Jayhawk Dr. This is the same model home. It is on a smaller lot but then again some of 7704's lot is a hillside. This home is an REO and has been listed for 60 days. It's priced at $350k. A mind numbing $290k less than Dullusional-boy's house. Lemme tell ya, I can build a frigging spectacular pool for $290K and have enough left over to buy me a rental house over in Perris or San Jacinto.

This home sold last in June 2006 for $630K. It was lost to the bank in early December. At the current listing price this home will have lost $280K in a year and a half, or 45% of it's previous value.

Another perfect example of a market that is in complete disarray. Two nearly identical homes on the same street, yet one is 45% less than the other. The REO property is actually priced about where you would expect it to be assuming a "normal" rate of appreciation. According to Redfin, it looks like this home sold new in 1995 for $205k. If we use a 4% rate of appreciation (which is about the normal rate) this house should be worth about $330K. So, is it a good deal? Is this one worth buying? Will the price of this house fall further? Who knows, but using traditional numbers this REO house is close to where it should be.


Anonymous said...

Are you crazy? You really think that house in Rivertucky should be selling for over $300k. WTF dude, that crapbox should be $150k.

Anonymous said...

But it's expectacular ......... BWAHAHAHAHA

SpicyMcHaggis said...

150K, Dream on Anon boy (or girl). Of you are waiting for 2800 s/f homes in one of the nicer areas or Riverside to fall to $150k then you are going to be renting for a very very long time. Riverside may not be Laguna Bch but the days of $150k homes of that size are 30 years past. The only way they will ever fall that far is a total collapse of the US financial system and econmomy, a complete meltdown. If that happens housing prices will be the least of your problems.

Where do these knuckle heads come from??

Briar said...

I really have to object to all the comparisons to Kentucky! Kentucky is a lovely state. I went to college there. I also lived in Mississippi, and it would be much more accurate to say Fonsippi or Riversippi.
Or Fonsiana or Riversiana.
Seriously, give Kentucky a break!

golfer_X said...

That first post is probably from a dungeon and dragon playing 30 year old that lives in his parents garage watching Star Trek 4 hours a night.

If he/she thinks that those houses will fall to $150k he is smoking the dream pipe. I suppose it could happen but I also suppose I could win the US Open. However, neither are very likely.

Anonymous said...

Any chance houses in north Fontana that are in the 3000 sq range 3 car garage will be down to $300,000- $325,000 that is my cap???

FM71 said...

Briar, seriously, any state that ends in "tucky" sort of deserves at the very least a little bashing. But if you insist, how does Fonbama or Riverbama sound?

Anonymous said...

A few posts ago showed a couple of homes in Sierra Lakes that were around 2500 s/f, they were listed for around $300k. Later in the year there should be way more to choose from. The foreclosures are piling up and by once winter hits the banks will be a lot more eager to dump these properties.

Briar said...

they don't have quite the same ring as 'fonsippi' and 'riversippi.' Plus, there are parts of Alabama that are decent. Tennessee is a better football team, of course, but that doesn't mean all of 'bama is horrible.

Anonymous said...

I just saw one that was listed for $350,000 range in Fontana. Then it shot back up and relisted at $380,00 dont know what that was about?
I will continue to watch stuff drop til the end of the year.
Seems that stuff that is listed is dropping $15,000-$20,000 per month.

Just saw another one that fell out of foreclosure and then the banked dropped it $40,000. Keep the prices coming down I will be ready to jump in at $300,000 or $330,000 range but I have over 3,000 sq 3 car garage on a 7,500 or bigger lot.