Friday, February 15, 2008

Wow, the numbers are worse than I thought

I was poking around the Data Quick site looking at last months sales by zip code when I noticed most of the zips had larger declines than the reported numbers (20% for Riverside and 19% for San berdu). Looking at the chart I could see that the Condo numbers helped make the median price decline look a little better than it would have been. I still cannot figure out how they came up with the last number they reported. No matter what I do with the numbers from this chart I cannot come up with the numbers they reported earlier in the week.

The actual number for year over year price drop for SFRs (houses) are,

Riverside down 23% from 2007
San Berdu down 25% from 2007

It's amazing some of the declines, for example

Canyon Lake -51%!
Norco -46%
Calimesa -48%

There are so many zips with declines of 30% to 40% that they are not even worth mentioning. Take a look at the chart for yourself, it's stunning.

The Median Price numbers also don't match what has been reported and I'm a little puzzled as to why that would be. Here are the Median Price numbers according to the sales by Zip Code Report

Riverside is down to $315k (the other reports said $331k)

San Berdu is down to $279k (the other report said $298k)

10 comments:

Anonymous said...

26% is just about right for the 92508 zip.

I was looking at the "Homes Sold Database" on the Press Enterprise website and the numbers are completely wrong. They state homes as being sold at $750,000-$1,000,000 on streets where, even at the peak of the market, they were sold for maybe$550,000.

PE has done this many times before, but their current list has quite a few wrong prices! So, I emailed them and they said they buy their info from http://www.facorelogic.com/. I told them they are wasting their money and suggested they shouldn't take part in presenting false info.

We'll see what they say.

Angela said...

I agree that 26% is about right for 92508. I've been comparing prices there as well. I've also noticed how PE is wrong on a lot of their sales prices. Let us know what they say to you when they respond.

Thanks for the link Golfer-X. I just checked DQ a couple of days ago and they still had December numbers up.

Angela

Anonymous said...

I used to live in the 92505 area code of Riverside, up over 30+ % WTF?.........how accurate is the data?

Angela said...

Anon,

There are new homes selling in La Sierra that may be messing with the numbers a little.

Angela

Anonymous said...

The numbers can be way off if the sales numbers are low or a new tract of high end or low end stuff has sold some homes. Anza for instance is up 60%, but only ONE home sold. You also don't know what happened in that zip a year ago. Maybe only one or two low end homes sold last Jan. You have to look at this data as entertainment. Looking at the overall picture it will give you a good idea of the market conditions. But trying to look and the details of the zip codes is not really useful, those are too easily skewed by a few sales either high or low.

Buttermonkey said...

Ok, a couple of off topic questions (sorry about that)for anybody who'd like to answer.

1) Why are there some homes for sale that aren't listed on the MLS? Don't they want to sell this stuff?

2) When a bank "buys" a home back from owners who have defaulted, does this count as a real sale as far as comps for the neighborhood go? Please say yes, please say yes, please say yes. LOL!

3) Someone told me that there are laws about how many repo homes banks can hold, therefore they need to unload repos asap. I'm thinking that might be someone blowing smoke up my ass because the banks don't seem to want to move the current repos AT ALL. I went house hunting yesterday and you should see the TRASH the banks are trying to unload for $400k-500k. It's laughable!

4) Why does Zillow list the last sale price for some homes and not others?

5) Why does everyone keep asking if we've reached the bottom yet? Wasn't the peak, depending on area, anywhere from 2005-2006? I don't have a degree in accounting, economics, or even simple math, but thinking about that for a second leads me to realize that most of the 3 year ARMs won't be resetting until this year or next year. It takes 6-9 months to get a person out of their home, so that tells me that the glut of repos hasn't even begun. Then we'll have the 5 year ARM wave. I'm scratching my head.

golfer_X said...

1)
Most anything listed with a realtor is going to be in the MLS. I've noticed that not everything in the MLS shows up on Redfin or ZipRealty. Sometimes it is there but an error in the listing will make it show up in another area or not show in your search. For instance if the realtor leave the sq/ft area blank or something.

2) No, properties going back to the lender are not used as comps. I don't think you want them to be used either since they are usually way higher than the homes will sell for these days. I have read in several blogs that Zillow shows those as sales. I don't know if that's true or not (I think not)

3)
I don't think there are any laws on how many properties a bank can hold. They may have their own internal procedures and their share holders are not going to be happy if they have too many non-performing assets in the portfolio. Sounds like some smoke blowin' too me!

4)
I dunno, I find Zillow completely freakin useless!

5)
Why, because they are too lazy to take a few hours and do some research. Anyone that has invested a few hours and looked at the data should be able to come to the conclusion that we are no where near a bottom. The bottom is so far off you'de need Jacque Cousteau and a submarine to find it.

golfer_X said...

One thing I left out from the last response about bank properties showing up as sales. On Redfin they do show up as sales. So when searching for past sales using Redfin you do need to realize that MANY (about 50%) of those sales that are shown are NOT actually sales. They are the bank transferring the deed from the foreclosed owner back to the bank.

Buttermonkey said...

X, I'm hell bent on Victoria Woods. I watch that area like a freak. NOTHING has sold in months, so it would be fabulous to have something, anything sell so that the comps would head south.

So far, there is a good one that just sold on Arroyo drive. 2400 sq. ft. for $487,000. That one sold in a flash. The rest of the crazies over there still want bank for their dumps, so they'll be sitting on the MLS for another 6 months to 5 years. LOL!

BrianH said...

Just to point out a home doesn't go back to the bank, or the bank doesn't buy it back.

Ownership changes hand, however the bank actually purchases the house. They never owned it to begin with, the home was collateral that the bank has the right to sell.

At the trustee sale the opening bid is what the bank is willing to purchase the home for and if there are not any 3rd party bidders the bank purchased a home just like anyone else.