Monday, February 4, 2008

Median continues to plummet

Riverside median price continues it's uncontrolled plummet. In the last 12 months the median price has fallen 19.1%, from $419k in 02/07 to $339k today. Inventory is up 24% to nearly 50,000 homes (keep in mind this does not include most new homes). Most of the price declines have been in the last 6 months. The speed of the decline seems to be accelerating hitting 3% in the last month alone.

To illustrate the increase in speed of the price declines look at the last year.
12 month 19.1%
6 month 14.2%
3 month 8.4%
1 month 2.9%

If the declines continued to accelerate at the current pace or even just leveled off at the current pace we would be looking at a 35% drop in the median and that would take it down to $220k. With all the data out there pointing to increased foreclosures, increased inventory and tighter lending standards does anyone think this year will not be worse than last year. Last year the drop was 20% which makes the projected 35% well within the realm of possibility.


PS said...

Those numbers are UGLY, but only if you bought a house in the last few years. They are long overdue if you were intelligent and waited. I'm hoping the prices come back to normal and that 35% decline would get them close. I think they need closer to a 50% decline still and that would take 18 months if the current trend holds. Who knows if it will, it could get better, it could get worse. But like you say, there is no good news and nothing to indicate the decline will do anything except get worse.


Anonymous said...

I wonder if the decline will pick up during summer or during certain months? I don't want to wait another year!

Anonymous said...

Im praying for a total market capitulation come next summer.

Tyrone said...




golfer_X said...

I'm praying for capitulation this summer. I'd really like to move. My current house is just too small for all the crap I've accumulated. Don't think it will happen that quick though.

House prices NEVER go down. You are obviously holding the chart upside down ;-)