Monday, August 10, 2009

We came in third

10 worst real-estate markets for 2009

The housing market hasn't bottomed out yet. For the third quarter, the closely-watched S&P Case-Shiller national home-price index fell 16.6%, and experts are predicting further declines. Of the top 100 markets, here are 10 with the worst forecasts.

Only 2 of the top 10 are not in California!

1) LA, Ca
2) Stockton, Ca
3) Riverside, Ca. A popular boom earlier this decade fueled runaway prices for single-family homes in this market, which includes San Bernardino and Ontario, outside Los Angeles. Median prices are expected to fall to $197,000 in 2009, down nearly $60,000 from 2008.

Well, we are already way past $197k. Riverside County's median is currently hovering around $185k and the city of Riverside is currently at $180k. I'm not sure what they are using to come up with the numbers. The report does not say if it's just SFR's or SFRs and condos. It doesnt say if it's the city median or the county. Thier forcast is for a drop of 23% this year and another 5% in 2010. So let's take those declines and use the numbers from DataQuick.

According to DataQuick, the Riverside County median was $209k at the end of 2008. If we factor in a 23% fall for 2009 that puts the median right around $160K at the end of the year. Currently prices are stable but that's probably just a factor of the season and the propping up of sales by all the government intervention. It's certainly not unreasonable to think prices will fall to the $160k range by the end of the year. That's only a $25k drop. We've seen the median drop 10K in on month. As recently as April we saw drops of $7k in one month.

Rounding out the top 10,
Santa Ana
San Diego
Washington DC


alex said...

Don't forget that the market mix is changing at the same time. The median price may well rise due to exhaustion of the "sub-prime" inventory and sale of the mid-tier (at higher prices than the low-end, but still reduced from last sale).

For this reason, tracking the median (or mean) price may be deceptive, while examining repeated sales index (e.g. Case-Schiller) a more accurate reflection of the market.

David said...

It is really tragic to learn about the numbers.
A report suggests that the number of U.S. households on the verge of losing their homes soared by nearly 15 percent in the first half of the year as more people lost their jobs and were unable to pay their monthly mortgage bills.

The mushrooming foreclosure crisis affected more than 1.5 million homes in the first six months of the year, according to a report released by foreclosure listing service RealtyTrac.

Read More:

Sigma said...

We are the few with the right type of insight and whom truly understand the real fundamentals. We know that these fundamentals *should* dictate the inevitability of another market & house crash to align the prices to what they really should be (at least another 30% drop in the IE, and at least a 75% drop in the most exaggerated prices in the south bay).

However, the big wild card that may hang us responsible non-homedebtors out to dry is the government. We might be making a grave mistake standing on the sidelines too long just as we did when we knew that prices were way too high in 2002-2004. I hate to admit it but I still regret listening to my logic and not my emotions when everyone else was buying. I would've made out like a bandit (so long as I had jumped out when I knew it was going to hit the fan). When you can't beat them, join them.

Well that's what I'm afraid of anyway. I'm still holding out thinking that the game is bigger than all of us and will hopefully be much too big for even the government to intervene. But then if the picture is so dismal, unemployment would have to be so scary that would you even have a job?

What do you guys think?

Sigma said...
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