This came from the OC register from a post about "there's no second wave" because the first wave hasn't washed through yet.
You can see the NOD's (blue) are increasing with little change. They've been going up like homesick angel since 07. And this year the trajectory is only getting steeper despite the best (or worst) efforts of the government. NODs will probably continue to skyrocket. I suppose they will level off at some point once most of the upside down homeowners have received one. Most of the increase is due to job losses and those upside down homedebtors giving up. I wonder how much of it is due to people that can afford the payment but want to get a loan mod? So they stop making a few payments. If your credit is already bad and there's a chance of lowering your house payment its probably worth a shot.
The burgandy line is the NOTs, homes that are scheduled for foreclosure. You can see that it's been rising for the last few months after the lull we had around the holidays when the government put all those foreclosure freezes into effect. Most of those have expired now but there are still some games being played like the latest one in California that went into effect in June.
The yellow is the REO's, or the stuff the banks already own. You can see it is decreasing even though the NOTs are increasing. This isn't how it's supposed to work. It's like flooring your car and seeing the gas milage go up. Part of that widening gap is surely due to the fact that the banks are actually selling the REOs now that the prices have come down. But I'm sure an equally large part of the difference is due to the intervention of the govenrment. All the moritoriums, freezes and workout plans are having an effect. It's not going to change the eventual outcome in most of the cases where the NOT has been filed.
6 comments:
I got an email from a golfing buddy of mine that also happens to be a bank manager. He seems to think the banks will start letting the flood gates open around the end of September. He says unless the government steps in again the next year should be very busy in foreclosureville. I'll believe it when I see it!
X, do you think Uncle Obama is going to extend the tax credit beyond December first?
I think they will. There's been some reports of increasing it to $15k and eliminating the first time buyer restriction. They did try that with the current credit and it didn't fly. Guess we wait and see....
Mahalo
`A `ole pilikia
I am right there with you on this one X! I'll believe it when I see it! I think the administrations MO is to push everything off to make things look as good as possible for now. The more foreclosures that are pushed off, gives those who are unemployed a chance to get a job.
I really don't think that they see the market as having a price or affordiblity problem but they just see a demand problem. Now that demand is back creating an increase in sales, everyone is rushing to call a buttom. They don't see the demand being only for the lower priced homes, they just see the sales numbers and say its a buttom! Meanwhile, watchout below for the higher end!
Once this buttom floor falls, I think you could see a more advantaged plan to stimulate demand. With the cash for klunkers, people are saying it just steals sales from next year. Some people are saying their neighbors are all moving to buy a homes, maybe this will drain the supply of first time buyers. Then we are back to the demand problem again.
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