Thursday, July 31, 2008

Brown lawn, nothing photoshop can't fix

Added, Just for Martin!



I am pretty sure there are rules against realtors using Photoshop on listing pictures. But it didn't stop this guy from adding some photoshop grass to this listing.

This boy needs to work on his PhotoShop skilz.

Why didn't he fix the back yard???



Here, let me help

Hmm, let's kick it up a notch

Tuesday, July 29, 2008

Left the appliances, took the garage door


Now I've seen a lot of things taken from foreclosures but this is a first for me.

These people left the usual stuff like the stove and microwave, but they took the garage door? Who takes a garage door and leaves a stove?

Well, it's in Perris so I guess nothing should surprise me. If you're interested in a house with a ...a...a Carport, yea that's it we'll call it a carport, you can have it for $189k.

Monday, July 28, 2008

The weekly tumble

Here's this weeks median listing data from Housingtracker.net. The numbers are continuing to decline. In the core areas this week, the middle did not move much but both the high end and the low end saw average declines of $5k and $4k. On the County wide numbers the low end and high end did not move much but the middle saw about a $3k decline.


Riverside, California

Including Arlington, Bloomington, Box Springs, Canyon Crest, Casa Blanca, Colton, Corona, Crestmore, Fontana, Grand Terrace, Jurupa, La Sierra, Mira Loma, Moreno Valley, Norco, Perris, Rubidoux, Woodcrest

Trend07/28/20081 month3 month6 month12 month
Median Price$259,000-4.1%-13.6%-27.0%-39.8%
Inventory13,430-1.7%-9.2%-2.0%-10.3%

Historical Data

DateInventory25th Percentile50th Percentile
(Median)
75th Percentile
07/28/200813,430$190,000$259,000$354,900
07/21/200813,470$194,900$259,900$359,000
07/14/200814,390$195,000$260,000$359,900
07/07/200813,511$199,000$266,000$365,000
07/01/200813,897$199,900$269,900$369,900
06/28/200813,666$199,900$270,000$370,000



Weekly Data for Riverside and San Berdu County

Weekly inventory and median asking prices for Single Family and Condo homes (together) are displayed in the trend box below. 25th and 75th percentile prices for the last ten weeks are shown in the table. For a longer history of trends see the averages data further down.

Trend07/28/20081 month3 month6 month12 month
Median Price$254,900-5.6%-14.7%-25.0%-36.1%
Inventory45,999+0.1%-4.7%-9.0%-12.2%


DateInventory
(SFH + Condo)
25th Percentile50th Percentile
(Median)
75th Percentile
07/28/200845,999$184,500$254,900$369,900
07/21/200847,243$185,000$257,600$371,175
07/14/200845,778$189,900$259,999$379,000
07/07/200846,531$189,905$264,900$379,900
06/30/200845,947$194,900$269,900$387,500
06/23/200847,519$195,225$270,000$389,000

Sunday, July 27, 2008

Bridle Creek under $400k

Bridle Creek is a horsey development in Southern Riverside near Lake Mathews. The homes are being built by Lyon and are decent sized houses on one acre lots. I like a couple of the floor plans in this tract so I keep an eye on it. Last year the builder was trying to get $700k to over a million for these units. Being a relatively new development it's now peppered with REO's and homes in various stages of foreclosure. Lately there have been some big price reductions on some of the REO's. A few were down in the mid $400s. Those reductions must have gotten some interest as I see a few have gone pending. We will have to wait and see what the selling price was on those. This weekend I see a new listing hit the market and it's an attention getter if you are interested in this area.



17741 Canyonwood Dr. is a 3266 sq/ft 4 bedroom, 3.5 bath home. It's plan number 2 if I remember correctly. It's not one of my favorites but it is a nice floor plan. This home was purchased in Oct 2004 for $638k. It went back to the bank in April for $539K and it hit the market this weekend for $377K. From the pics the home does not look to have much in the way of upgrades. On the bright side it does not look like the last owners thrashed it on the way out either. If you can pick this up for asking price it's probably a decent deal. The asking price is very close to what homes of this size on lots this size were selling for in 2000/2001. I think this will probably sell for quite a bit over asking. My guess is it will go for around $420k~$430k.

Saturday, July 26, 2008

One of the better video's I've seen lately.

This is a bit long but it's a good video. Unfortunately the message is a little late.

The Biggest Loser


There are a lot of homes in the IE that have lost 50% or more in the last couple of years. Most of those though are "only" losing $300K to $400K. It's not every day you find a 50% loss that is nearly a million dollars.

Well, here's one in Corona. 1015 Lowry Ranch Rd is a large estate home up in Crown Ranch. According the the description this was a model home. It is 5400 sq/ft and has 5 bedrooms and 5.5 bathrooms. The home was purchased new in May 2006 for 1.83 million. It does not say that this is a REO on the listing but I will assume it is as it shows a sale in June for 1.49 million. It is currently listed for $875K. That is a loss of 53% or $955K! If it sells at that price the total losses after all the fees are paid should be well over a million.



If you are thinking this home is going to be "snapped up" you might want to take note that there are quite a few REO properties in this tract and some are priced very close to this one. In fact there is a model match at 960 Randall Ranch Rd. This home is identical except for the "model home" upgrades. It cost quite a bit less so the loss is not nearly as impressive but even so the loss is considerable. It was bought new in June 2006 for $1.475M. The lender took it back in Nov 2007. Since then they have been chasing the market down. After 6 price reductions they are down to $878K. The loss on this one is "only" 41%, assuming they can get it sold at that price the loss is going to be around $600k plus fees..

Wednesday, July 23, 2008

A trip to MoVal

Moreno Valley is one of the few cities where you can currently buy and be reasonably certain your house won't be worth $100k less next year. MoVal gets a bad rap some of it is deserved and some is just hype. The crime rate in the city is about average for a city of it's size. It's no Beverly Hills but it's also no Compton. It has a few ghetto areas like Edgemont and it has several very nice areas like Moreno Valley Ranch, Rancho Bellago and Sunnymead Ranch. Home prices in MoVal shot up about 300% between 2002 and 2007. By early 2007 many of the newer tracts were selling homes between $500k and $700k (before upgrades). That's absolutely insane for a working class town like MoVal.

In the last 6 months of 2007 the market in MoVal seized up. Nothing was selling. At one point in late 2007 there was a 4 year supply at the rate homes were selling. By spring the prices were falling faster than IndyMac's stock price. Homes now, at least the ones that are selling are going for 50% to 60% off peak prices. They are all the way back to 2001/2002 prices. And guess what, they are selling!Last month they go rid of 322. That's not epic by any means but it sure beats the 50 a month they were selling last fall.

I don't want this to be a "yea, but who wants to live in MoVal thread". Let's just take a look at what you can get in MoVal.



First up is 13531 Somergate. This is one of the Model Homes for the tract. I visited these homes, my grandfather lives very close to them and they were great floorplans on large 1/4 acre lots. But back then they wanted about $500k for them and I just laughed. This home is 3570 sq/ft and has 6 bedrooms and 3.5 baths. It was purchased for $735k back in 2006. That was long before the models closed. They only closed the models about 6 months ago. It's now an REO and it's listed for $315K or $88 s/f. Thats a loss of 58%! This is a beautiful home and if you work in the IE this is probably a solid buy.



Around the corner in anothr new tract is 13388 Triple Crown. This is an equestrian tract so the lots are huge and the area is zoned for horses. The tract was build by Richmond America. I never like these floorplans or any other Richmond floorplans for that matter. I think they just finished the tract and they still might have one or two new homes left. These were also in the High $400s to Low $600s (without upgrades). And trust me these needed upgrades the stock builder grade stuff they came with was junk. This home is 3574 sq/ft and has 5 bedrooms and 3.5 baths. This home was purchased new in Jan 2007 for $510k. At that price I doubt there were many upgrades. It's now bank owned and also listed for $320k. Not as good a deal as the last home but for $320k it's a nice big home on a nice big lot and probably a decent buy at $92 s/f.



If those 2 are still too rich for your blood then how about 16513 Colt Way. This one is down the south end in Moreno Valley Ranch. It's very close to the MoVal RCC Campus. This home is 2605 sq/ft and has 5 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms. It says it has granite counters and from the one pic it looks very nice. The home was purchased new in 2003 for $292k. It sold again in 2006 for $495K. Now it's owned by the bank and the listing price is $205K or $76 s/f. If it sells at that price the loss will be 59%! I think this will go for more than that but I doubt it will fetch over $240k. Even at that price this is probably a reasonable buy and should make a nice starter home for a young family.

These were 3 of the REO's that hit the market today. The city is full of them! It's no surprise that the sales for Riverside County were up last month. With prices hitting 50% to 60% off in MoVal, Perris, Hemet, San Jacinto, Wildomar, Meniffee, Murrieta, and surrounding areas it's easy to see why sales are up. Don't fret, soon enough 50% to 60% off will be coming to a city near you!

Tuesday, July 22, 2008

Foreclosures still going through the roof

Trustees Deeds Recorded




DataQuick has released the Foreclosure report for the second quarter of this year. As you can see the numbers are still sky high. Riverside is up 250% in Notice of Trustee sale and San Berdu is up a whopping 315% over last year.





Another Increase in California Foreclosure Activity
La Jolla, CA.--Lenders started foreclosure proceedings on a record number of California homeowners last quarter, the result of declining home values and the rampant spoilage of a batch of especially risky home loans made in late 2005 and 2006, a real estate information service reported.



Mortgage servicers recorded 121,341 "notices of default" during the April-through-June period. That was up 6.6 percent from a revised 113,809 for this year's first quarter, and up 124.9 percent from 53,943 in second-quarter 2007, according to DataQuick Information Systems. Last quarter's number of defaults was the highest in DataQuick's statistics, which go back to 1992.



"It's still very clear that most of the problems are in certain areas and in certain categories. Basically, areas that absorbed spillover activity during the end of the boom cycle in 2006 seem to be the hardest hit. Prices went too high, fueled by the availability of easy-to-get dicey home loans. An added element was speculative buying," said John Walsh, DataQuick president.



Most of the loans that went into default last quarter were originated between September 2005 and November 2006. The median age was 26 months, up from 16 months a year earlier.
On primary mortgages, California homeowners were a median five months behind on their payments when the lender filed the notice of default. The borrowers owed a median $11,583 on a median $346,400 mortgage.



Last quarter's default numbers were a record in almost all of the state's 58 counties. That included Los Angeles County, where last quarter's 21,632 residential defaults surpassed the prior record of 21,444 recorded during first-quarter 1996.



Of the homeowners in default, an estimated 22 percent emerge from the foreclosure process by bringing their payments current, refinancing, or selling the home and paying off what they owe. A year ago it was about 52 percent. The increased portion of homes lost to foreclosure reflects the slow real estate market, as well as the number of homes bought during the height of the market with multiple-loan financing, which makes 'work- outs' difficult.



Trustees Deeds recorded, or the actual loss of a home to foreclosure, totaled 63,061 during the second quarter. That's the highest since DataQuick began tracking Trustees Deeds in 1988. Last quarter's total rose 33.5 percent from 47,221 in the previous quarter, and jumped 261.0 percent from 17,458 in second quarter 2007. In the last real estate cycle, Trustees Deeds peaked at 15,418 in third-quarter 1996. The all- time low was 637 in the second quarter of 2005.






Monday, July 21, 2008

The weekly Tumble

Not much movement this week in the county wide median listing price numbers except at the low end and the high end (The high end took a beating). The core areas were basically unchanged this week. That's almost expected given the large decline the previous week. The monthly averages remain basically unchanged with about a 5% decline per month currently.

County wide numbers (Rivy and San Berdu)

Trend07/21/20081 month3 month6 month12 month
Median Price$257,600-4.6%-14.1%-25.1%-35.4%
Inventory47,243-0.6%-1.4%-1.6%-9.0%


DateInventory
(SFH + Condo)
25th Percentile50th Percentile
(Median)
75th Percentile
07/21/200847,243$185,000$257,600$371,175
07/14/200845,778$189,900$259,999$379,000
07/07/200846,531$189,905$264,900$379,900
06/30/200845,947$194,900$269,900$387,500
06/23/200847,519$195,225$270,000$389,000


Here's the Core areas


Trend07/21/20081 month3 month6 month12 month
Median Price$259,900-5.5%-13.4%-27.8%-40.1%
Inventory13,470-7.3%-3.0%-4.5%-7.3%

Historical Data

DateInventory25th Percentile50th Percentile
(Median)
75th Percentile
07/21/200813,470$194,900$259,900$359,000
07/14/200814,390$195,000$260,000$359,900
07/07/200813,511$199,000$266,000$365,000
07/01/200813,897$199,900$269,900$369,900
06/28/200813,666$199,900$270,000$370,000
06/21/200814,533$199,900$274,900$375,000

June sales by city

Here are the numbers from DataQuick for sales by city.

City, .......Sales......2008 median....2007 Median...% chg

Riverside County 3,471 $275,000 $405,000 -32.10%
BANNING 38 $198,750 $262,000 -24.14%
BEAUMONT 73 $272,500 $380,000 -28.29%
BLYTHE 7 $215,000 $190,136 13.08%
CABAZON 5 $150,000 $252,000 -40.48%
CALIMESA 4 $269,500 $370,000 -27.16%
CATHEDRAL CITY 51 $217,000 $330,000 -34.24%
COACHELLA 38 $212,000 $325,000 -34.77%
CORONA 431 $369,705 $550,000 -32.78%
DESERT HOT SPRINGS 61 $157,500 $273,500 -42.41%
HEMET 161 $177,000 $288,750 -38.70%
HOMELAND 2 $167,750 $435,000 -61.44%
IDYLLWILD 4 $338,000 $310,750 8.77%
INDIAN WELLS 34 $739,250 $860,000 -14.04%
INDIO 167 $256,000 $365,000 -29.86%
LA QUINTA 113 $466,000 $556,250 -16.22%
LAKE ELSINORE 119 $245,000 $385,000 -36.36%
MENIFEE 109 $268,000 $392,000 -31.63%
MIRA LOMA 25 $360,000 $439,000 -18.00%
MORENO VALLEY 322 $212,090 $379,500 -44.11%
MURRIETA 296 $289,000 $440,000 -34.32%
NORCO 20 $476,000 $540,000 -11.85%
NUEVO 9 $238,500 $547,000 -56.40%
PALM DESERT 126 $354,000 $402,250 -12.00%
PALM SPRINGS 102 $300,000 $371,250 -19.19%
PERRIS 134 $215,000 $370,000 -41.89%
RANCHO MIRAGE 67 $520,000 $569,000 -8.61%
RIVERSIDE 383 $272,000 $413,750 -34.26%
SAN JACINTO 99 $205,000 $334,000 -38.62%
SUN CITY 88 $252,500 $328,250 -23.08%
TEMECULA 239 $319,000 $450,000 -29.11%
THOUSAND PALMS 7 $222,500 $290,000 -23.28%
WHITE WATER 3 $127,500 $270,000 -52.78%
WILDOMAR 45 $294,000 $440,000 -33.18%
WINCHESTER 84 $305,000 $423,250 -27.94%



San Bernardino County 2,043 $239,500 $365,000 -34.38%
ADELANTO 75 $165,000 $300,000 -45.00%
ANGELUS OAKS 3 $200,000 n/a n/a
APPLE VALLEY 109 $190,000 $295,000 -35.59%
BARSTOW 25 $121,500 $185,000 -34.32%
BIG BEAR CITY 31 $204,000 $300,000 -32.00%
BIG BEAR LAKE 26 $292,500 $410,000 -28.66%
BLOOMINGTON 13 $200,000 $360,000 -44.44%
CEDARPINES PARK 5 $76,000 $175,000 -56.57%
CHINO 78 $360,409 $500,000 -27.92%
CHINO HILLS 64 $446,500 $630,000 -29.13%
COLTON 34 $200,500 $345,000 -41.88%
CREST PARK 3 $196,000 $375,500 -47.80%
CRESTLINE 24 $180,000 $234,500 -23.24%
FAWNSKIN 2 $417,500 $664,500 -37.17%
FONTANA 252 $289,000 $435,000 -33.56%
GRAND TERRACE 11 $305,000 $367,500 -17.01%
GREEN VALLEY LAKE 3 $165,000 $345,750 -52.28%
HELENDALE 10 $175,000 $274,750 -36.31%
HESPERIA 129 $200,000 $328,750 -39.16%
HIGHLAND 38 $240,000 $360,000 -33.33%
JOSHUA TREE 6 $170,000 $163,750 3.82%
LAKE ARROWHEAD 41 $349,000 $515,000 -32.23%
LANDERS 8 $56,750 $102,500 -44.63%
LOMA LINDA 12 $266,000 $414,000 -35.75%
MENTONE 4 $267,500 $321,500 -16.80%
MONTCLAIR 21 $300,000 $409,000 -26.65%
MORONGO VALLEY 3 $113,000 $189,000 -40.21%
NEEDLES 3 $183,000 $86,000 112.79%
ONTARIO 96 $290,000 $411,000 -29.44%
PHELAN 10 $216,500 $338,750 -36.09%
PINON HILLS 5 $273,000 n/a n/a
RANCHO CUCAMONGA 163 $385,000 $523,500 -26.46%
REDLANDS 45 $297,500 $429,000 -30.65%
RIALTO 76 $225,000 $354,500 -36.53%
RUNNING SPRINGS 13 $224,500 $255,000 -11.96%
SAN BERNARDINO 170 $168,500 $287,000 -41.29%
SUGARLOAF 11 $100,000 $196,000 -48.98%
TWENTYNINE PALMS 22 $137,000 $135,000 1.48%
TWIN PEAKS 6 $192,500 $265,000 -27.36%
UPLAND 55 $375,000 $555,000 -32.43%
VICTORVILLE 245 $180,000 $317,000 -43.22%
WRIGHTWOOD 4 $245,000 $332,500 -26.32%
YUCAIPA 51 $292,500 $350,500 -16.55%
YUCCA VALLEY 32 $147,500 $201,000 -26.62%

Sunday, July 20, 2008

Yet another look at The Retreat

After spending a weekend watching the British Open I though I would take a peak at my favorite golf course community. WOW, the prices there are coming apart like Greg Normans game did today. Back in late April I wrote a post about the first home to list under $500k in The Retreat. Here we are, only 3 months later and there are 17 homes listed under $500k and of those 5 are under $450k. There are 32 homes listed under $600k. Some of those are short sales but enough of them are REOs and those will set the comps so the when the shorts do become REOs they will be priced in the same range or probably even lower. On a square foot price basis many of those sub $500k homes are in the $130s s/f with the lowest priced home being a short sale listed for $122 s/f. As the selling season winds down I'm starting to wonder if the lenders will start dumping these homes soon. I've been seeing quite a few new listings in this tract every week. The inventory could start to balloon if they don't start selling some of these.

The price leader on a square foot basis is this home at 22586 Secret Way. This home is 3676 sq/ft and has 4 bedrooms and 3 baths. These were built by KB homes and this one sold new for $841,500 in 2005. Today it's listed as a short sale for $122 s/f or $449,999. That works out to a loss if $391,501 (less costs) if they can get is sold.



My personal pick would be 8024 Sanctuary. This is another KB home. It's 3760 sq/ft and has 4 bedrooms and 4 baths. I like this floor plan with the exception of the fact that it only has a 2 car garage. That actually is a deal killer for me, I need at least 3 and preferably 4. Other than that, this is a very nice floorplan. The home was purchased for an even $1 million February of last year. Today it's listed as a short sale for $499k. If the bank will go for that price (and they would be smart to take it) that would be a loss of 50% or $501k in 16 months. KB is still building this tract (well they were as of a month ago) and they were still asking over $600k for this floorplan the last time I stopped at the models.

Saturday, July 19, 2008

It's the stupid Economy

I saw this clip over at Calculated Risk and though it was worth sharing.

How low can it go?

About a year ago many here in the blogosphere talked about housing prices returning to sane levels. Most folks back then thought that $100 s/f for homes was probably the lowest we would see in the IE. After all a year ago most homes were still priced over $200 s/f in the nicer areas and even in the outer edges of the civilized world, places like Hemet and San Jacinto prices were well over $100 s/f. I remember how exciting it was when the first homes started to show up under $100 s/f. Heck that was less than a year ago!

So how low can prices go? Well theoretically they can go to zero but as long as we have a reasonably stable economy and people want to live in SoCal that's not likely to happen. But the question remains, how low will prices go?

If anyone a year ago would have suggested that you could buy a nearly new home in the IE for $50-$60 s/f they would have been ridiculed. But today there are actually homes listed for very close to that amount. Most of them are short sales but there are a few REO properties listed that low too. Granted these are out in San Jacinto, Hemet, Perris or other far flung locations. Even so that's quite a price. That's far less than it would cost to build a similar home.

Here's the cheapest one I could find. 3072 Coffeeberry Way, San Jacinto. This home is 3693 s/f and has 5 bedrooms and 4.5 baths. It was build in 2006. I don't know what is sold for but the appraised tax value was $425K, so I assume it sold for close to that. It's currently an REO property and it's listed for $189,900 or $51 s/ft!

Not a bad looking house, especially for $51 s/f. You can live in your very own McMansion for about $1200 mo. Hell, you can almost afford that working as a greeter at WalMart. Which is handy since that's about the only kind of job in San Jacinto.

Friday, July 18, 2008

SFR Median sales price by Zip Code

Here is the Median Sales price data for Single family resale homes by Zip Code. Check out the zip codes where the median has fallen below $200k. One Hemet zip is $130K and there are a few other really low ones too but they are even farther out.

RIVERSIDE COUNTY SFR Price % chg



Countywide 2,842 $263 -33.4%



Aguanga 92536 1 $220 -40.5%



Anza 92539 1 $200 -1.5%



Banning 92220 34 $194 -28.4%



Beaumont 92223 45 $247 -19.4%



Blythe 92225 5 $167 -6.7%



Blythe 92226 n/a n/a n/a



Cabazon 92230 5 $150 -36.4%



Calimesa 92320 4 $270 -27.2%



Canyon Lake 92587 20 $285 -49.1%



Cathedral City 92234 49 $217 -36.4%



Coachella 92236 29 $200 -26.1%





















Corona 92879 44 $320 -24.3%



Corona 92880 102 $378 -34.7%



Corona 92881 46 $390 -25.0%



Corona 92882 84 $360 -28.7%



Corona 92883 77 $348 -33.6%



Desert Center 92239 n/a n/a n/a



Dsrt Hot Springs 92240 37 $128 -53.4%



Dsrt Hot Springs 92241 2 $199 -7.4%



Hemet 92543 31 $130 -44.7%



Hemet 92544 57 $175 -44.4%



Hemet 92545 57 $190 -36.8%



Homeland 92548 n/a n/a n/a



Idyllwild 92549 5 $338 8.8%



Indian Wells 92210 14 $870 -22.7%



Indio 92201 65 $205 -39.3%



Indio 92203 50 $260 -32.5%



La Quinta 92253 81 $415 -25.6%



Lake Elsinore 92530 64 $220 -36.2%



Lake Elsinore 92532 43 $271 -37.0%



Mecca 92254 n/a n/a n/a



Menifee 92584 86 $242 -34.5%



Mira Loma 91752 25 $365 -25.4%



Moreno Valley 92551 54 $195 -44.4%



Moreno Valley 92552 n/a n/a n/a



Moreno Valley 92553 95 $165 -51.4%



Moreno Valley 92555 76 $258 -36.3%



Moreno Valley 92557 63 $219 -39.2%



Mountain Center 92561 1 $660 -3.9%



Murrieta 92562 130 $294 -38.8%



Murrieta 92563 141 $289 -31.8%



Norco 92860 22 $463 -14.3%



N Palm Springs 92258 n/a n/a n/a



Nuevo 92567 10 $239 n/a



Palm Desert 92211 42 $354 -5.7%



Palm Desert 92260 24 $445 -7.0%



Palm Springs 92262 38 $329 -35.5%



Palm Springs 92264 23 $580 -11.8%



Perris 92570 31 $255 -46.9%



Perris 92571 96 $205 -39.4%



Rancho Mirage 92270 34 $683 -0.7%



Riverside 92501 7 $121 -67.7%



Riverside 92503 82 $273 -34.6%



Riverside 92504 44 $197 -47.5%



Riverside 92505 41 $249 -40.1%



Riverside 92506 40 $300 -36.6%



Riverside 92507 35 $234 -32.2%



Riverside 92508 54 $360 -28.0%



Riverside 92509 54 $265 -32.1%



San Jacinto 92582 35 $214 -40.9%



San Jacinto 92583 49 $182 -36.0%



Sun City 92585 30 $230 -29.9%



Sun City 92586 22 $165 -25.8%



Temecula 92590 n/a n/a n/a



Temecula 92591 61 $314 -27.8%



Temecula 92592 139 $319 -28.8%



Thermal 92274 n/a n/a n/a



Thousand Palms 92276 7 $223 -12.7%



White Water 92282 3 $128 -52.8%



Wildomar 92595 35 $280 -32.9%



Winchester 92596 55 $279 -28.5%



Thursday, July 17, 2008

Let's get back to some houses....

More Delusional sellers in Corona!


Here's another story of a poor fella that waited just a little to long to sell his pleasure palace. Even though the market has clearly fallen from it's drug induced highs there are still plenty of late sellers that either didn't get the memo or don't believe it.

The owner at 3944 Bennet Ave in Corona is one such person. His disbelief of the current market conditions is evident by his asking price. No doubt about it, this is a first class pad. The inside looks awesome as does the outside. But it's still a tract home in Corona. The home is 3615 sq/ft and has 4 bedrooms and 3 baths. It also has a bitchin back yard with a cool rock pool, fireplace and built in BBQ. I'm sure they spent some serious cash on that back yard. However as most of us know, A pool is a terrible investment. You get very little of that money back as it scares away 3 out of 4 buyers. I'm sure the other upgrades add some value to the home but nothing close to what the owner obviously thinks.



It looks like the owners picked this home up new in 2002 for $378k. Judging by the backyard they have HELOC'd or refi'd the hell out of this thing and probably owe a fortune. The asking price is $850K. 2 years ago they would have gotten it but today they have some serious competition.

The first and most similar is a model match at 4020 Old Waverly. Same home also with a pool and spa. No pics though except for the front view. It looks nice from the front but it's hard to compare without pictures. None the less this home is listed for $620k. It also has no hope of selling at that price. (107 days on Market so far).



There is also a REO property of the same model at 1929 Crystal Downs. This one doesn't compare to the first one in upgrades (it has none) but the home is identical in floor plan. It is currently listed for $445K. Not quite HALF the price of the first home and it hasn't sold at that price either. It's been listed for 60 days. This home was last purchased in May 2005 for $740K (amazing no?). It went back to the bank for $422k in May. That means nobody bid on this home in May when it was auctioned for $422k! Total loss, assuming it sells at $445K would be $295K (from the 2005 sales price).



How much extra are those upgrades worth on home one? I know they aren't worth $400k. The Crystal Downs house hasn't sold in 2 months at the $445k asking price. I think if they get that one down under $400k they will get some action on it and get it sold. What does a $400k comp do when it comes time for an appraisal on the first home? Even if they were to find a willing buyer is there any way they could get financing. I doubt it. It's just more waisted listing cluttering up the MLS.

Wednesday, July 16, 2008

Data quick June sales report

DataQuick has released the June report. The only bright spot is that sales are up in the IE over last year. That wouldn't be hard since last year was the worst on record. Take note that the median price has fallen $15K (5%) in one month in Riverside and over $10k (4%) in San Berdu. That's pretty darn large drop in one month. If that rate of decline keeps up the median in Dec will be $202k for Riverside! Some people will see the sales increase and get all worried but it's a small increase, only 400 more homes than last year and many of those are new homes. Last year NOTHING new was selling because the prices were still sky high. There's a lot more new stuff selling this year due to the builders whacking the prices. Also note that 62% of the sales in the IE are foreclosures.

Now here's the report.

La Jolla, CA---Home sales in Southern California continued at their slowest pace in more than two decades last month as many potential buyers and sellers held off if they could, or struggled with mortgage financing if they couldn't, a real estate information service reported.

A total of 17,424 new and resale houses and condos sold in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties last month. That was up 3.0 percent from 16,917 the previous month and down 13.6 percent from 20,166 for June a year ago, according to DataQuick Information Systems.

While last month's sales were the highest in ten months, it was still the slowest June in DataQuick's statistics, which go back to 1988. The June average is 28,488 sales, the peak was reached in 2005 when 40,156 homes sold.

"The mortgage market turbulence is putting quite a bit of activity on hold. Policy decisions about underwriting don't really mean much if there's little or no money to lend. Even some very well-qualified households aren't getting mortgages these days, although this could all change fast if liquidity comes back," said John Walsh, DataQuick president.

The median price paid for a Southland home was $355,000 last month, down 4.1 percent from $370,000 in May and down 29.3 percent from $502,000 for June 2007. The peak of $505,000 was reached in March, April, May and July of last year.

The median has fallen because of depreciation, especially in inland markets, and because of the steep dropoff in home financing in the so-called jumbo category, which until recently was defined as loans above $417,000.

Foreclosure resales continue to be a dominant factor in today's Southern California market accounting for 41.1 percent of all resales. That was up from 39.2 percent in May, and up from 7.3 percent in June a year ago. Foreclosure resales ranged from 18.9 percent in Orange County last month to 62.3 percent in Riverside County.




Sales Volume Median Price
All homes Jun-07 Jun-08 %Chng Jun-07 Jun-08 %Chng
Los Angeles 7,580 5,678 -25.1% $545,000 $415,000 -23.90%
Orange 2,641 1,930 -26.9% $645,000 $495,000 -23.30%
Riverside 3,359 3,757 11.8% $400,000 $275,000 -31.30%
San Berdu 2,190 2,215 1.1% $365,000 $240,000 -34.20%
San Diego 3,510 3,077 -12.3% $495,500 $370,000 -25.30%
Ventura 886 767 -13.4% $582,000 $420,000 -27.80%
SoCal 20,166 17,424 -13.6% $502,000 $355,000 -29.30%