Friday, July 4, 2008

The worst time to buy a house EVER

If you ask people when was the worst time in history to buy a house most would probably say 2006 or 2007. Those were terrible years to buy a house but I think today might actually be worse. In 2006 you still had prices going up in some areas and even if prices were not going up they were not cratering like today. In 2007 sales were at a standstill but prices were not falling much at least until late in the year (mostly because of the lack of sales). Today however you can buy a house one month and next month it can be worth 20% less. Today is the worst time in history to buy a house looking at month to month values. Sure prices have dropped on average 30% since last year but the rate that the prices are falling is increasing. It has slowed slightly for the "spring bounce" but come fall they will probably take off like jet.

Here's an example of what I'm talking about.
In May of 2008 a bargain shopper "snapped up" 4467 Cabot Drive in South Corona (Dos Lagos), the home is a 3 bed, 3 bath and it is 3413 s/f. He was probably all giddy at his apparent steal. You see this house was previously purchased in Dec 2005 for $1.045 million. He stole it for $560k after the bank took it back in Dec 07 for $753k. Sounds like a great deal, right? He bought it for 47% less than the previous owner. How can you go wrong?

Here's how. Fast forward 6 weeks since he closed and his neighbor (a bank) with the same floor plan has listed for $499k. 4455 Cabot Dr was last purchased in Sept 2006 for $975k, lost to the bank in early June for $621k and has just hit the market for 11% less than 4467 Cabot only 6 weeks after he closed. Sure I suppose it could go for more than asking but that is highly unlikey



Anyone thinking that this is just one case cherry picked might also take note that just up the street at 4365 Cabot Drive there is a 350 s/f larger home (REO) with 2 more bedrooms listed for $519k. All three of these homes back to the golf course so there is little difference in regards to lot premiums. The best lot is actually this last home. It sits near the tee box so getting peppered with golf balls is not the issue it is likely to be with the first two homes. (There is another one of these 3800 s/f 5 bedroom homes for sale for $529k just around the corner from the first 3 homes)



Knife catchers beware, currently the knives are razor sharp! With rising foreclosure numbers and home values still higher than traditional ratios the pressure is going to keep dragging the prices down. You can lose a lot of money in a very short time these days.

8 comments:

Curious said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Curious said...

being so far down the 15 and with the $200 HOA, looks pretty tough to get more than $100 per sqft, am I being to unrealistic

Paige said...

Well that's good to hear, for we keep getting outbid.

We made an offer on a home and just found out there were 15 other offers and some people who bid 20% over asking price.

Nothing else to say.

Martin Burtin said...

The psychology of starting bidding wars over attractively priced properties must be working then. Too bad. Apparently there are still unwise individuals with money, looking to be parted from their money. Maybe there's a market there.

I'm thinking of starting a biz to help these people overpay for bargain properties and help them bid 20% over stated prices to help them obtain their dream home. I should think another 5% would be fair for my service, since these people are such assclowns anyway and deserve to be sheered like sheeple.

golfer_X said...

Two months ago a REO on my buddies street in Corona sold for $395k ( I knew this guy paid way too much when he closed). A slightly smaller home (also REO) about 6 houses down just sold for $304k. I wonder how the first guy feels about losing 91K in equity in a couple of months? Since the second house is smaller lets make him feel better and say he's only lost $60k in a equity. Hey, I'm a giver!

I'm sitting back for a few more months before I make any offers. Anyone bidding 20% over asking is these days is loopy.

Santa Ana River Rat said...

Some people buy a house with their heart, not with their head. That's why some of these awful houses have occupants. Paige, if someone was willing to pay 20% over the asking price, either they are thinking they are getting a great bargain in the market that's spiraling down, or just fallen in love with it so much they didn't want to bother with the rest of the pack. Seriously the initial exuberance on falling house price is fading rapidly. If you look at some home sale data, the quick spurt we had is slowly disappearing and we are only half way through the year. If I was in your situation, I'd just sit out a few months...re-collect myself and get back into it.

golfer_X said...

To help me forget about buying anytime soon I have booked another cruise. This way I will be thinking about my upcoming vacation rather than making offers on houses. Now I just have to pray that there are no hurricanes in late October!

golfer_X said...

4365 Cabot has just been "re-listed" at $489K. That's another $20k down.