Monday, July 7, 2008

The weekely Tumble

The median listing prices are showing no signs of slowing. I know it seems like prices are not falling if you are chomping at the bit to buy. But they are still falling. The inventory is continuing to bounce around within about 1000. Ever since Feb it has fluctuated between 13,500 and 14,500. So although we keep hearing about lots of sales they are not making a dent in the inventory levels. I suppose it's not much of a stretch to imagine the inventory really starting to climb as the selling season is starting to wind down.

Another data point that shows the increasing speed of the crash is the one month change numbers. If you look you will see the decline in the last 30 days is 5% and for the last month it's been between 5% and 6.5%. The one month change had been running about 3.5% for most of the year.

As I posted earlier this month the foreclosure rate is still climbing and most of those May and June foreclosures are not on the market yet. So the amount of REO properties hitting the market will increase as the sales rate decreases. That should make for an interesting winter!

Here's the data for the core areas of the IE from housingtracker.net

Riverside, California

Including Arlington, Bloomington, Box Springs, Canyon Crest, Casa Blanca, Colton, Corona, Crestmore, Fontana, Grand Terrace, Jurupa, La Sierra, Mira Loma, Moreno Valley, Norco, Perris, Rubidoux, Woodcrest

Trend07/07/20081 month3 month6 month12 month
Median Price$266,000-5.0%-15.6%-28.1%-39.3%
Inventory13,511-1.1%-3.5%-6.8%-7.1%

Historical Data

DateInventory25th Percentile50th Percentile
(Median)
75th Percentile
07/07/200813,511$199,000$266,000$365,000
07/01/200813,897$199,900$269,900$369,900
06/28/200813,666$199,900$270,000$370,000
06/21/200814,533$199,900$274,900$375,000
06/14/200814,827$200,000$275,000$375,900
06/07/200813,660$205,000$279,900$379,900
06/01/200813,907$209,900$285,000$389,000
05/28/200814,053$210,000$287,900$389,000













































And here's the county wide numbers,
As you can see the county numbers are dropping a little faster now than the core areas, especially at the high end. The inventory is also holding much more than the core areas.


Trend07/07/20081 month3 month6 month12 month
Median Price$264,900-5.1%-13.1%-24.1%-33.8%
Inventory46,531-1.6%-5.5%-6.0%-12.6%


DateInventory
(SFH + Condo)
25th Percentile50th Percentile
(Median)
75th Percentile
07/07/200846,531$189,905$264,900$379,900
06/30/200845,947$194,900$269,900$387,500
06/23/200847,519$195,225$270,000$389,000
06/16/200846,962$199,000$275,000$395,000
06/09/200847,297$199,900$279,000$399,000
06/02/200846,949$200,000$280,000$399,000
05/26/200847,187$200,000$285,000$399,000

3 comments:

Curious said...

With all these declining prices, do you see $100sq/ft as a norm, or do you anticipate it going much further than that?

I know Eastvale as a lot of negatives, but being close to the 71 and a little better access to LA, does that help values at all despite the cows and the prison?

Santa Ana River Rat said...

Curious, we've learned to accept lagging wages and rampant abuse of our fundamental right to live free so I'd say cows and prison should be easy to accept. Sorry but listening to all these flip-flopping politicians on the radio...wondering how much are we as people willing to put up with things.

Martin Burtin said...

Anyone in high office should be nervous if history has any sway over current events. /me thinks he hears angry hoards at the gates of the Bastille.