Wednesday, November 26, 2008

Eastvale listings, new lows

The listing prices of REO properties in the Eastvale area of Corona is continuing to drop. Even as the number of REO properties decrease. Today I found a couple hitting the market at around $90 s/ft. There's a short sale that just listed at $81 s/f (although I don't use short sales as an indication of anything).

7207 Midnight Rose Cir
, This home is 4203 sq/ft and has 5 beds and 5 baths. Its the most expensive listing uner $100 s/f to hit the market this week. It's listd at $98 s/f or $410K. This home sold new in Feb 2007 for $688K. They didn't even manage to keep the home 2 years. In fact they barely made a year as they lost this thing way back in March. It took the bank 7 months to get this home on the market! I wonder how many payments they actaully made?

6457 Daffodil Ct is home of 3683 sq/ft and it has 5 bedrooms and 3 baths. This home is listed for $330K or $90 s/f! There is no sales data in Refin for this home so I don't know the history. It would appear that the original owner from 1999 lost this home. That would probably indicate they lost it due to equity withdrawal.

6522 Gold Dust St, This one is 4236 s/f and has 5 bedrooms and 3.5 baths. It hit the market $384k or $91 s/f. This home last sold in August of 2005 for $725k. It went back to the lender in August. They tried to get $405k on the courthouse steps but there were no takers. Think anyone will jump on it at $384k? Yea, me too (assuming it's not thrashed inside).

But if you want to dream big you can go after this Short Sale that listed at $74 s/f. 12782 Thornbury Ln is a big 4038 sq/ft monster with 5 berdrooms and 3.5 baths. The current owners are so far underwater they will need Alvin to rescue them. They bought this home new in Jan 2007 for $669k (probably thought they got a deal too!). Now it's listed as a short sale at $299k! Good luck with that one...... (That's probbly what this home will be worth in 2011 though).


Anonymous said...

i've made 3 offers in eastvale and lost all 3 (offering above asking price)..starting to get discourage..x, do you think the banks/listing office are playing games? they keep on saying that i got outbid by 1 person...don't know if they are lying or not..i notice that for some of the houses they take if off the market and then relist again in a few months..

golfer_X said...

The relists are usually the result of a deal falling apart. It's not as bad as 6 months ago but many buyers are still running into problems getting a loan. There may also be a number of buyers that realize that the prices will be better next year and bail out.

The better priced homes are still getting a lot of action. It takes solid credit to clinch a deal on those. Even if you are the highest bidder you may not get the thumbs up. Banks are not just looking for the best price but they are looking for the best price that has the best chance of actually closing. If a deal falls apart after a couple of months they know when they relist the house the next deal will more than likely be lower. So they are really looking hard at them and trying to pick one that will close.

It's not so bad that you lost those deals. Interest rates are now lower. Prices are still dropping too.

Perks said...

Golfer I agree the prices in Eastvale will continue to go down. Any guesses as to what a 3000sq/ft house in Eastvale bottoms out at?

Jeff said...


Like you asked, anything golfer says will be a guess. If you see a house you really like, can afford the payments at roughly 28% of income and plan on living there for 10 years, buy it. It's as simple as that. Most of these prices are already 40-50% off their peak and they will go down some more but nowhere near those percentages. Over 10 years you would have made up the potential 10-15% further drop in price. A house is someplace to live in, not an investment. Which goes back to me saying if you like it and can afford it, buy it and live in it and enjoy it.

One thing I can guarantee is that you will definitely not knowingly buy at the bottom. It will be by chance that you do. Nobody knows what the true bottom will be.

Plus interest rates just took a big drop and are near their all time lows. Who knows what interest rates will be next year, most definitely higher. But I can bet that in 10 years, prices of homes will at least be where they are today even after further drops in the future based on average appreciation over the last 40 years.

golfer_X said...

Yup, what Jeff said. We can guess all we want but it will be just that, a guess. I figure that prices will come back to the long time trend lines to income and rental equivalent. But as in most crashes there is a good chance prices may undershoot that level. With the economy falling apart faster than a Chinese motorcycle anything could happen. Plus all the the interference by Washington is another factor that really clouds the forecasting. It seems every week they are trying a new scheme. They are succeeding in slowing the crash. I think they are trying to stretch it out in order to spread the losses over a longer term. This would help the banks and Wall St survive but would really lengthen the duration and probably the depth of the fall.

My personal feeling is we have another 20% or so to go in the newer areas of Riverside and Corona (as long as the economy doesn't come unglued). I agree with Jeff, if you can find a place you love and can easily afford it AND are going to stay in it for 10 years then you may want to buy it. But if you will lose sleep if the value goes down 20% then you might want to wait a couple of years.

I think MoVal, Perris, Hemet, San Jacinto etc, are closer to the bottom. The prices in those areas are very close to rental equivalent so investors are buying up everything that pencils out now.

Oldtimer said...

With prices falling at a rate of 5% a month or so, another 20% down would mean that prices stop falling sometime this winter.

No idea about the school situation in Eastvale, but from a commuting perspective, it seems a lot more desirable than MoVal or Hemet or Winchester. I will be surprised if Eastvale doesn't stabilize before those outlying markets.

golfer_X said...

The median is falling 5% per month. Much of that fall is due to the high number of low end properties that are selling. If you look at the better areas the price isn't fall quite as fast. Price per sq/ft is a better gauge on price declines.

Lets look at Corona for instance, price per sq/ft drops:

92879, -34% yoy, -12% since Aug

92880, -33% yoy, -4% since Aug

92881, -36% yoy, -8% since Aug

92882, -36% yoy, -0% since Aug

92883, -35% yoy, -8% since Aug

As you can see the monthly drop is slowing when you look at price per sq ft. The average is 6.4% in the last 3 months or about 2% per month.

Jeff said...

I live in Eastvale and have been watching the market closely. It seems the last few months the prices have somewhat stabilized. You can see that on Redfin's stats for 92880.

You can also see the inventory trending down for the last few months due partly to the foreclosure bill but also to increased sales. It just ticked up a bit recently since banks can start foreclosing again but it ticked up very little.

The house next door to me was taken by the bank a month and a half ago. It never showed up on Redfin but there is a sign post in the yard but no sign. A month ago there were 8+ cars throughout the day pulling up to view the house. Well it must have sold that day because someone started moving in yesterday.

Another house down the street was taken by the bank about 2-3 weeks ago and just went on the market I think yesterday and I just noticed people looking at it today - on Thanksgiving!

Both of those houses were resales in 2006.

The affordability of homes just went up this week as interest rates took a dive. So people have a little more buying power now.

Luckily I bought in 2003 and prices are pretty much at what I paid for my home. I also put down 15% so I still have equity.

So a family making $80-$100k depending on their down payment should be able to afford a home in Eastvale now. And I think the median income for 92880 is $78k.

Christina said...

X quoted some good yoy data. If you are looking for a date, it seems to me that I would wait for those yoy numbers to start improving. A dramatic stablization would show 30% yoy one month, 25% the next month, then 15%, and 7% - thats to say if it was fast. And since prices were drastically higher a year ago, the market will need to work out all the sellers (distressed or not), that may take a year or two. (All of these I think are too optimistic).

Buyers also should remember the way percentages work. A 15% decline on a $300,000 will require an increase of almost 20% to get back up to $300,000. Those movements take time. I just don't think we are going to get into another real estate bubble once the declines are over. Prices may be stagnent for a few years, if it follows past trends.

But I am just speculating, I could be completely wrong.

golfer_X said...

I think there is two or three more years of price declines still coming. They may not be the impressive declines of the last year but they will be declines. There are still a lot of areas that are behind and they will need to drop into balance with the rest of the market. After that I think we'll see about 5 years of flat prices. Maybe longer if the recession is really bad (which it probably will be). Then back to small increases. I don't think we will see another housing bubble in our lives.

Oldtimer said...

golfer x,

Could you offer a guess as to what percentage of homes in the IE are sitting empty?

It seems that in established coastal markets, housing and apartment vacancy is still very low. This includes markets hard hit by foreclosures (i.e. Santa Ana and Garden Grove).

golfer_X said...

I don't know how many but it has to be fairly high especially in newer tracts. Yesterday we went out to Moval Ranch golf course. From the golf course you can see all the empty houses. On one hole (7 lake) there are 6 new homes down the left side and all are empty, and have been for at least a year. On my street there are at least 4 empty homes (and only 2 are for sale). It's a lot more than most people think!