Tuesday, November 18, 2008

Oh so close

Here's the latest numbers from Dataquick. Last month San Berdu's median price was $205K and Riverside was $237,500. That puts the monthly decline at 2.5% for San Berdu and just over 3% for Riverside. Foreclosures made up 68% of the Riverside sales and over 65% or the SB sales. That kinda makes you wonder whats going to happen to the sales numbers if the number of availible foreclosed properties continues to diminish due to AB1137. I doubt that will be an issue. Once banks get caught up I expect the foreclosure numbers will climb right back up again.

Once again the report makes headlines about how much better than last year sales were. Well yes they were, but last year was the worst year since the great flood in 2000 BC (They did mention is was the second worst october since 96 though).

San Berdu's median is oh so close to breaking $200k! Riverside's median peaked at around $420K in late 2006 so we are close to 46% off peak. I think we have another30K to 50K still to go before we level off in Riverside, maybe slightly less in San Berdoo.

Sales Volume Median Price
All homes

Oct-07 Oct-08 %Chng
Los Angeles

$500,000 $355,000 -29.00%

$573,750 $420,000 -26.80%

$356,300 $230,000 -35.40%
San Bernardino

$330,000 $200,000 -39.40%
San Diego

$460,000 $323,500 -29.70%

$535,000 $375,000 -29.90%

$445,000 $300,000 -32.60%


Tyrone said...

Funny story on San Diego median. I was posting over at a realtor's blog about the disconnect between incomes and prices, and her justification for prices was...

Or how do you explain San Diego where the median price of a home is $566,700 and the median income is $55,637?
(Sep '07)
Ref: Real Estate Orple of the Week

I kept her on my blog, and regularly update the median since then. It's comical.
Feb- '08: $451,500
June '08: $370,000
Sep- '08: $328,000
Oct- '08: $323,500

Oldtimer said...

Its good to see affordability returning to the IE.

I know it is painful over the short term, but it will yield nice dividends over the next decade.

Housing in the IE has to stay reasonably affordable to maintain a good rate of jobs growth.

Chicago said...

We bought one of the houses talked about on the blog in Woodcrest. There was a bidding frenzy and then the bank finally came to its senses ( 'cause all the other "best & final" offers went bust). We got it for the original asking price, which was below$400. It seems like prices are not dropping and there are not alot of new listings. Do you think we got a good deal? Can it go much lower than $375,00 in Woodcrest? Come be our neighbors in Bridle Creek. Love the blog.

golfer_X said...

It can go a lot lower! I was over in Moval looking at decent homes for under $100k (for rentals). That's cheaper than those homes were selling for in 1992. I looked at one that sold new in 91 for 148K and it's now $99,990. It last sold in late 2006 for $360k. It's a nice 3 bedroom 1400 sq/ft home, the only thing wrong with it was the appliances were missing.

Right now there is not much coming onto the market but that is only because of that freaking AB1137 bill. It's backing up the foreclosures. The banks will eventually catch up and the market will get soaked with REOs.

The low end still seems to be dropping as well as the high end. I agree in Corona and Riverside the middle ($250k to $400k) doesn't seem to me moving as much right now. The high end stuff though is sure coming down fast.

Allison said...

Chicago - I've looked at Bridle Creek quite a bit too. When I first looked there about a year ago, one went up for below 500k and I thought, could it really get much lower than 500? Yes, much lower! It is always hard to imagine in the moment though.

I guess the answer is, you never know how low it can get. There are still a lot of houses listed up there, and a lot more on the way to foreclosure. But if you love the house and the location, and you are in it for the long haul, then I wouldn't worry about it too much. 375k certainly seems like a good deal right now - you just never know what the future will bring.