Friday, October 24, 2008

What's really happening

Reader Osa posted this,

golfer_x. Why do you always show the low side of San Jacinto? Why not take a look at Trulia. 605 Wamblee (3127 sq feet) - $110 sq/ft 496 Peregrine (3127 sq feet) - $103 sq/ft. Why don't you show what is really happening

Ok, I'll take the challenge. Let's look at what is really happening in San Jacinto and these two properties in particular.

605 Wamblee Ln, San Jacinto. A 3 bedroom, 3 bath home of 3127 sq/ft. reader Osa indicates it recently sold for $110 sq/ft. Well it did, kinda. That sale was the bank foreclosing on the property. They took it back for what I will assume was the loan balance of $345,095 from poor Hector Escamilla and his wife Rebeca. It's not currently listed but the bank purchase was fairly recent so they may not have it out to a broker yet. This home sold new in 2006 for $411K. Any guesses on what it will list for? This house had been for sale by owner for quite a while. He even tried an auction without any success.

The second home is;

496 Peregrine Ln, San Jacinto. This is a 3127 sq/ft home, also with 3 beds and 3 baths. It was purchased in Sept 06 for $375K. The owner had some trouble paying for it and the bank took the home back for $324,068 in August. It listed as an REO in Sept for $205k. The price has dropped to $189,900 as of Oct 20th. The asking price is 49% less than the selling price only 2 years ago. It's currently listed for $61 sq/ft.

And that is 'What's Really Happening!"


WunderPit said...


el bee said...


Tyrone said...

Thanks for showing both sides, golfer_X...
. . . BAD and HOPELESS.

Sara said...

That's the beauty of this blog--that it does show what's really happening. I don't even think that there are 2 sides right now. The numbers speak loud and clear.
A decline of hundreds of thousands in a few months--what other side? Denial will only serve to destroy people's lives.
Thanks Golfer for all the research that you do and the info you provide!

OSA said...

I live in San Jacinto and am looking at buying some investment properties. golfer_X - since you are more enlightened than me, do you think these housese will ever get back to maybe $100 per sq ft?

golfer_X said...

You can't just look at price per sq/ft. It varies even in the same tract. Small homes will have a higher price per sq/ft than larger homes will. If you check the price of 1200 sq/ft homes in San Jacinto or the neighboring areas you will find those are selling for around $100 sq/ft or more. Big homes and especially big homes (over 3000 sq/ft) will be much lower. Will big homes in San Jacinto ever go over $100 sq/ft again? Of course they will. How long will it take, is the question you need to ask.

It may take decades for the prices to climb back up to bubble levels. If real estate goes back to it's normal long term trend (about 4% per year) it will take 20 to 25 years to get back to bubble prices. But that is after they start appreciating again. I think prices will continue down for another couple of years. They are likely to remain flat for a few years after that, before they start back up. That could easily add another 10 years to that time line. It could easily be 30-35 years before homes in San Jacinto are selling for $500k again.

That does not mean there are no investment opportunities in the area. As long as you can purchase a property that pencils out with positive cash flow as a rental then the investment is sound. I would not bank on appreciation any more as an investment, now it's all about rentals.

Big homes are not wise investments as rentals. That's one of the reasons the price of the big homes is getting so hammered so bad. They only way they can sell those is to regular buyers. Smart investors are buying the low end smaller units.

jennalee ryan said...

actually, the real reason that the larger homes are less expensive per square foot is because the most expensive part of construction is the foundation,kitchen and bathrooms. The large homes usually consist of a larger master bedroon, family room, and usually a huge bonus room. Adding square footage in those areas is much less money. The cost of a foundation on a single story is the same as on a two again, the cost per sq. foot on the smaller house is higher. Also, the cost of the lot is the cost of the lot. so a 1000 sq foot house will be higher per square foot builyt on a $30,000 lot than a 3000 square foot house on a $30,000 lot