Thursday, October 16, 2008

Could you be more wrong?

The California association of realtors has just release the forecast for next year. They are forecasting a median price drop of 6% and a sales increase of 12.5%. How do they calculate these estimates? I'm beginning to think they just pull numbers from a hat.

How did they do last year at estimating this years numbers. Well, you could have asked you cat and probably have gotten a better estimate. Last year they estimated that prices would fall 4% and sales would fall 9%. At the current rate it looks like the median sales price will drop about 32% and sales will actually increase about 12%. Thats WAY off. So, why would we think this years estimate is any better?

I doubt we will see another 32% decrease but I also doubt it will be only 6%. 6% in January might be about right, but for the year I would be willing to wager a nice bottle of single malt that the number will be closer to 20%. I'm also skeptical that the sales numbers will increase. I think with the faltering economy and tightening lending standards that the sales numbers will be flat or down slightly. I just cannot see an increase with the economy coming apart like it is. I guess we will have to wait and see who gets closer, me or the CAR.


ButterMonkey said...

20% sounds nice. Can we just inform the ding dongs that keep listing their homes around $400k of this expected decrease so they can cut their prices on the front end of things. This waiting and waiting is making me ape shit.

Oldtimer said...

20% down for 2009 would put median asking price in the IE at less than $160K by next Christmas (assuming 5% monthly declines through the end of 2008).

I'm Not POTUS said...

32% or more is in the bag, a slam dunk.

We are going to almost double government debt next year. Up until now our increases in debt issuance matched the available pool of global savings. Global savings doubling in a year???? During a global slow down?????? Not gonna happen.

Which way 32% up or down I have no clue, but it will hurt.

ButterMonkey said...

Hahahhahahahhaha! Check out this listing! WTF is up with the price increase????

golfer_X said...

I'm gonna give him or her the benefit of the doubt and say it's probably a typo. Let's hope they meant $489k (although a 4 and a 9 are not next to each other on the keyboard)