The market is BROKEN!

Here's a few examples of a market that has broken down. First a couple of nice homes at reasonable prices. Yes, still high but almost in line with what it would cost to rent something of similar size. Then we have the rest of the market, asking ridiculous, pie in the sky prices as seen by our last two homes. Unfortunately the last two homes are the norm and the first tow are the exceptions (today anyway).

$379k!

13574 MEADOWLANDS CT, Moreno Valley, CA 92555, is a 5 bed 4 bath, 3294 sq/ft mini mansion in Moreno Valley. This is out on the east side of town where the big lots and horse properties are located. This home was built new in 2005. It sold in Dec of 05 for $464k and was quickly flipped in August of 06 for $580k, netting our initial buyer a healthy $116k less fees in 8 months. This home is a bubble poster child. Here we are just 1 year, 2 months later and this home has lost 35% of it's value IF it sells at the $379k asking price. He has competition too at 13535 WILMOT ST, is the same style home one block over, Listed as a short sale at $374k. This poor fliptard paid $565k in July of 06. He's looking at a loss of $191k plus 6% ($22k) in fees. Wow, it's not everyday you get a chance to piss away over $200k in a year. These homes are actually very nice and on big 1/4 acre lots. If you don't mind living in MoVal these are about as cheap as renting something this size. God know what your electric bills in the summer will be though. These two homes are priced to move and I actually think these have a chance of selling, although the first ones been for sale for over 2 months check out this next home though.

Now here's where most sellers are currently living, it's called dreamland USA. Our first seller is only a block away from the two mini mansions at 13680 STODDARD ST. This " CHARMING HOME IN GREAT LOCATION" is a 3 bed, 2 bath, 1305 sq/ft 1985 POS. It's got a slightly larger lot but then again it's just dirt. This beauty has been listed for 102 days so far with no takers at $399k. I wonder why? Another block down we have dreamer #2 at 29046 GIFFORD AVE, this is another 3/2 but slightly bigger at 1700 sq/ft. This home was built in 1975. I didn't think there was anything out there in 75. This dreamer thinks his "classic" is worth a whopping $469k! How can a realtor even take that listing??

$399k??

$469k??

Chino by request.....

By request I took a quick look at Chino/Chino Hills. I did not see the panic in Chino Hills yet that has taken hold in other areas of the IE. For the most part prices seem more level. I did not find many areas with huge variations in price. However, I did notice most listings were gathering dust, they have been listed for months and many of them have multiple reductions in price. It’s easier to find price big cuts in down in the flat areas of Chino.

Here's a nice example of a newer home in Chino that the buyer is obviously in full panic mode.

7922 SPRING HILL ST, 3790 sq/ft 6 bed 4 bath

Purchased 01/2006 for $769K
Listed for $575K or $151 sq/ft

If he can sell it that would be a loss of $194k plus $34k in fees plus 20K in property taxes. For a grand total loss of $248k in under two years!

15700 WILLOW RUN DR, Chino Hills, CA 91709 is a 4/4 2663 sq/ft home on a postage stamp sized lot. Original owners paid $327,500 in 2000 for it. They should be able to sell this for a handy profit assuming they did not use it as an ATM machine. So far they have whacked off $80k from the original asking price. An example of the “chase the market down plan”

Originally listed 05/06/07 for 728,888 (888? must be a fung shui thing)

Price Reduced: 07/07/07 -- $728,888 to $699,888
Price Reduced: 08/07/07 -- $699,888 to $669,888
Price Reduced: 09/20/07 -- $669,888 to $649,999

How about this baffoon…. At 1454 RANCHO HILLS DR he is also the original owner and bought this 4/3 2857 sq ft home in 1996 for $252k. He currently is asking $699,950 and it’s been on the market for 115 days. Now, why do I think this person is a buffoon. Well in addition to asking 3x what he paid for it, check out his price cuts, especially the last one. YUP you read it right, that my friends is a FIFTY dollar drop on a $700k home! Yea, I’m sure that will make all the difference, a buyer will appear shortly!

Price Reduced: 07/27/07 -- $758,800 to $739,900
Price Reduced: 08/04/07 -- $739,900 to $728,800
Price Reduced: 09/17/07 -- $728,800 to $719,900
Price Reduced: 09/28/07 -- $719,900 to $700,000
Price Reduced: 10/01/07 -- $700,000 to $699,950

I'm glad I waited.....Woodcrest/Mockingbird Canyon

I've been looking at homes in the Woodcrest/Mockingbird Canyon area of Riverside. It's close to where the wife works and would cut a few miles off my commute too. I've been looking at the large horse properties with lots of 1 acre and larger. I looked in this area in 2003/4 and these homes were selling in the high $400s back then. Now of course they are closer to a million than they are to the 400s. Lately though cracks have been showing and the builders are sitting on homes, some of them over 6 months old. Naturally the prices are starting to creep down. There are also a few REOs showing up. Let's take a look at a few.

17892 GLEN HOLLOW WAY is the model I really like. If these were under $500k I would be very tempted to buy one. The home is a 4 bed/4 bath 3385 sq/ft single story with a 3 or 4 car garage. It has a cool courtyard in the center of the home. These sell new from the builder for $850k+. This particular home was purchased 9/05 for $773k. Other than pouring a little concrete and planting a palm tree in the yard I don't see that much done. Our intrepid homeowner thinks his palm tree is worth $327k! His asking price is $1,099,00.

What's his competition?



Well the builder has a larger model for sale for $749K at 17601 Deer Ct, Riverside 92504, this 5 bed/4 bath and is 3701 sq ft. Very similar layout just bigger. This is 32% less than home #1 and it's bigger


17622 LAUREL GROVE RD is another 3701 sq/ft model, this one is a REO and is listed for $714k undercutting the builder by $35k. This is 35% less than home #1 and it's bigger. This one was on the market for nearly a year at $899k before the bank took it back

Nice pic!

If these are too spendy or maybe a bit bigger than you need we have another REO at 17008 BIRCH HILL RD, this home is only a 3 bed/4bath and is 2966 sq/ft. the bank is trying to unload this one for $574k. This is 48% less than home #1 although slightly smaller.
On a side note 17916 CANYONWOOD DR is the same model as this one and they are asking $999,999. Gotta be a WTF are they thinking candidate!

Homeowner #1 would seem to be in bad shape but he only paid $773k (unless he Helod'c the hell out of the place). If we take a number between the bigger house at $714 and the smaller house at $574 that makes his place worth about $650 (since nothing is selling it's hard to say). So he is still looking at a loss of $120k plus fees ($39k). If you factor in holding costs of 3k/mo ($72K and that's generous) plus 2 years propery tax ($20K) he is looking at a total loss of $251k. In other words it cost him $10,458 a month to live in that house for 2 years.

Which home would you buy?

I'm sure most of us would pass on both, but assuming you just had to buy a house which would you choose? These homes are about a block apart on the hill beside RCC MoVal Campus. This is in the best area of MoVal. Most of the homes, schools, roads and stores are new.



Home 1, 26240 CLYDESDALE LN is a 5/3, 2803 sq/ft home in Moreno Valley Ranch or soon to be known as the city of Rancho Bellago. The original owners paid $291k for this castle in 2003. They added a $1500 chandelier and a security system and seem to think this justifies the asking price of $580k. You would think after 220 days they might lower the price.

Nice pic, Mr. Realtor!

Home 2, 16437 HACKNEY CT is a 4/3, 3238 sq ft with a pool and spa. The bank took this one back and has it listed for $399,900. So you get a bigger home with a pool for $180K less. Ther is another listing for another home of this model a few doors down also for $399k. So you get two to pick from, both $180k less than home 1.

I know $180K may not seem like much these days. After all, we have gotten brain washed into thinking $6ook is a cheap home. But think about what you could do with that $180K difference.
These crazy priced homes are just too easy to find these days. They have no chance of selling and I have a hard time understanding why realtors waste their time and clog up the MLS with these overpriced homes. They must know there is no chance they will sell. Even the lower priced homes I am showing here have little chance of selling in today's market.

If you're gonna dream, dream BIG!

Many parts of the IE are full retreat but some areas have yet to see the approaching apocalypse . Moreno Valley is one of these areas. You would think MoVal would be leading the collapse but looking around I find that most sellers are still unaware there homes have dropped in value. Of course nothing is selling. In August just over 50 homes sold, with something like 2000 on the market there is roughly a 4 year supply. Even the new tracts are resisting the urge to make the drastic reductions I've seen in other areas.

Would you pay $620k to live in a tract home in MoVal? this one is not even in the nicer planned community areas.



13597 SESAME RD is a 4 bed 3283 sq ft tract home in rather unremarkable condition. I don't see any upgrades from the pics. It looks like a builder basic model and these dreamers are asking $620k. They seem to think that $100k should be their reward for living in MoVal for a year. By the way look at the pic, do you think they have enough crap in that house. I guess they don't watch those HGTV shows like Sell this House. One word "declutter" (is that one word?)



Thier neighbor with the same model at 13588 BALSAWOOD LN is asking about 100K less and this home looks much better with at least a few upgrades. Even living on Balsawood Ln is not going to help this flipper keep his head above water. This home was purchased new in 2005 for $390K. Our poor flipper bought it this year in Jan for $508k, and is now trying to escape by selling it at $525K.


This short sale 26567 QUARTZ RD in the same tract is 60K under the original builder sales price of $390k. This home is slightly smaller than homes 1 and 2 but at nearly 1/2 the price of home #1 it's got to be a wake up call for those guys. This is listed at $329K or $110 sq/ft. Not a bad price for a nearly 3000 sq/ft home if the bank approves it.


There is also an REO listed for $379k at 26600 SAFFRON, the same model as the one above. This has granite in the kitchen and what appears to be a guest house or some such. This one is also priced below original builder sales price of $391k and way below the $520 it went for in 2006.

All these homes are in the same tract and there are loads more of them. All the newer tracts seem to be suffering the same disease, rash of for sale signs. We can see the sellers here are delusional but the banks seem to be coming to their senses. At $110 a sq/ft is home #3 a good deal? Will the bank let it go that cheap? Only time will tell.

Comp Killer, $80k below 2004 price

1819 Morfontaine, Corona
4 bed/2 bath, 2413 sq/ft single story on 8700 sq/ft lot in the Eagle Glen Community.
Asking price is $450k

Sale History
11/17/2006:	$550,000
05/13/2004:	$529,500

Looks like a flip gone bad. The seller is going to lose 100K plus Realtor fees of around $27k. In addition to that he remodeled the kitchen so the total loss in just under a year is going to be around $150k. The new asking price is also $75k under the 2004 sales price. This is actually a nice looking house and considering the area and the price, it should sell.

But it is going to make the neighbor's place a little hard to move. 1795 Riverstone is the same model on a slightly larger lot but they are asking $619k (only 169K more). But the home does not look as nice inside as home #1 does.

Sale History
08/28/2007:	$587,032
08/21/2006:	$779,000
06/10/2004:	$540,000

This home has seen some wild price swings. It looks like our current owner is just trying to escape without losing anything. His asking price will just get him out after he pays commissions.
Of course with home #1 setting the bar $169K lower I'd say he's completely screwed.


Look at the sales prices of these two homes for a moment. Both sell for about the same price in 2004. Then in 08/2006, house 2 sells for $779k. In 11/2006 our unlucky flipper picks up home number 1 for $550k, what must have seemed like a steal. After all the same model just sold for $779 only 3 months before. But then home #2 drops nearly $200k in a year. That must have made our unlucky flipper's head spin. Now both homes are back on the market again. The $450 price seems good but I think these should be selling for mid 300's tops.

Hitting the house lotto in Corona

Some buyers were lucky enough to make big scores in the Eagle Glen Community in Corona. They bought, held for 2 years, sold and doubled their money. Personally I think there was some fraud on a couple of sales that just sent the comps into orbit. Even in the bubblicious IE it's hard to imagine a $500k house selling for over a million only 2 years after purchasing it.

Here's a few examples of what I'm talking about.

1572 Vandagriff Way Corona CA 92883
3 beds, 3.75 baths, 3,695 sq ft;

Sold new in 2003 or 2004 for approx $400k (2004 tax based on $408,653)
Sold on 05/21/2004: $829,000

How does a $400k tract home in Corona appreciate approx $430k in less than 2 years?

1544 Vandagriff Way Corona CA 92883
5 beds, 4.5 baths, 4,531 sq ft

Sold new in 2003 or 2004 for approx $600k (2004 tax based on $603k)
It sells on 06/27/2005 for $1,175,000
Then again on 05/23/2007 for $1,200,000

This $600k tract home in Corona appreciate approx $575k in less than 2 years? Owner number 1 hits the house lottery!

1537 Vandagriff Way Corona CA 92883
Same plan as above, 5 beds, 4.5 baths, 4,531 sq ft

Sold new in 2003 or 2004 for approx $540k (2004 tax based on $540k)
It sells on 07/07/2005 for $1,065,000
Then again on 06/29/2007 for $1,135,000

This lottery winner collects over $600k in less than 2 years?

1553 Vandagriff Way Corona CA 92883
4 beds, 4.0 baths, 3,829 sq ft;

Sold new in 2003 or 2004 for approx $550k (2004 tax based on $555k)

07/29/ 2005: $975,000
08/17/2006: $1,010,000

This original owner wins the lottery and collects over $400k in less than 2 years?
Buyer #2 holds for a year and probably sells at a loss after fees.

Corona in free fall

I've been looking around Trilogy golf club at homes. There are loads for sale and the race to the bottom seems to be on. Let's take a look at Cantara rd. There are 34 homes on Cantara and I found 4 for sale, so just over 10% of the street is for sale.

23672 Cantara Rd is a 3103, 4/3 near the golf course. It looks to be a failed flip. Last purchased for $575k back in April. It's already back on the market for $493,850. That's an 82K loss in 5 months! Nearly 200K from peak in 2005

Currently on the market for $493,850
04/20/2007: $575,089
08/31/2005: $689,000
10/16/2003: $459,000

The neighbor with the same plan at 23700 Cantara is already under cutting this flop by a few dollars though. His is listed for $479,000, $166k less than he paid for it only 2 short years ago (ouch).

This is gonna make 23518 Cantara a little hard to sell at $579,000. Especially since it's 500 sq/ft smaller. These appear to be the original owners though so they may still be able to escape without losing much if they can lower the price.

23602 Cantara is also for sale at $590k. This one is the same 2665 sq/ft plan as 23518 Cantara. It does have a pool but at $100k more than the two larger homes I don't see much hope. They've already reduced the price from $645. This is another original owner so they should be able to get out if they price accordingly (and have not heloc'd all the equity out).

Here lies 4 properties on one street in the Trilogy community. There are many, many others.