Monday, June 14, 2010

The ups and downs in the IE

I noticed Housingtracker.net was running again after being offline for a while. Looking at the median listing price data it looks to be pretty stable over the last year or so at $240k. It's kinda fun looking at the numbers and seeing the peak in 2006 at over $460k. Then the crash to the low in early 2009 of $217k. It's crept up to the current $240k in the summer and fall of 2009. In the areas I watch the prices seem to have leveled out. There have been a few great deals closed compared to the comps but these all look like inside deals. Most (if not all) of them never hit the open market. Fraud? I'm sure quite a few of them were technically fraudulent. But other than those the sales prices are about the same today as in late 2008.





The inventory numbers are another fun set to look at. We hit a high of nearly 60,000 in late 2007 when the market seized up as prices fell, buyers vanished and lending dried up. The inventory started to fall once the government started all the bailout/workout BS. The low water mark for inventory was around the holidays last year. We have been creeping up ever since. Banks are starting to ramp up the foreclosures (more slowly than anticipated though). Short sales are now being encouraged by banks and that's also helping pump up the numbers. We are getting close to 32,000 but there is still a serious shortage of good properties. I'm seeing lots of overpriced listings and lots of trash. The pearls are few and far between.



For you history buffs, here's the data for the last few years.

MonthSFH+Condo
Inventory
25th
Percentile
Median75th
Percentile
Jun 2010 31,100 $150,750 $242,450 $422,500
May 2010 30,478 $150,600 $240,960 $420,180
Apr 2010 29,844 $149,950 $237,975 $412,450
Mar 2010 27,466 $149,910 $235,000 $399,978
Feb 2010 25,888 $147,675 $230,975 $398,225
Jan 2010 25,155 $147,450 $229,225 $397,500
Dec 2009 25,435 $149,225 $232,125 $403,737
Nov 2009 26,575 $149,920 $238,400 $420,010
Oct 2009 27,569 $149,175 $236,250 $423,450
Sep 2009 27,493 $149,925 $239,500 $435,988
Aug 2009 28,410 $148,882 $237,880 $431,400
Jul 2009 29,257 $147,313 $235,225 $429,250
Jun 2009 30,584 $144,980 $229,760 $414,790
May 2009 32,614 $143,725 $225,000 $401,973
Apr 2009 35,365 $140,000 $219,850 $387,500
Mar 2009 38,625 $139,960 $217,080 $369,580
Feb 2009 40,003 $143,125 $219,148 $364,750
Jan 2009 41,594 $148,976 $222,615 $364,140
Dec 2008 43,995 $155,997 $228,843 $371,270
Nov 2008 45,466 $162,791 $234,869 $378,171
Oct 2008 47,030 $169,812 $241,097 $385,301
Sep 2008 48,794 $179,945 $253,064 $396,132
Aug 2008 48,928 $189,183 $264,707 $410,471
Jul 2008 50,281 $198,565 $274,909 $423,742
Jun 2008 50,874 $209,673 $291,266 $445,107
May 2008 51,306 $220,983 $308,857 $455,220
Apr 2008 52,578 $237,943 $319,005 $475,726
Mar 2008 53,200 $252,057 $336,952 $493,538
Feb 2008 53,347 $265,768 $352,536 $507,636
Jan 2008 53,971 $277,607 $366,177 $518,359
Dec 2007 55,808 $289,994 $374,137 $534,693
Nov 2007 58,257 $301,146 $387,907 $546,581
Oct 2007 57,873 $312,784 $398,326 $561,045
Sep 2007 59,183 $317,841 $407,566 $564,659
Aug 2007 56,879 $328,547 $415,993 $578,136
Jul 2007 56,592 $337,269 $423,300 $592,323
Jun 2007 55,370 $341,823 $426,332 $601,018
May 2007 53,371 $347,533 $434,838 $609,832
Apr 2007 51,233 $350,796 $440,705 $615,759
Mar 2007 46,932 $354,807 $444,272 $620,370
Feb 2007 44,865 $355,285 $444,140 $620,370
Jan 2007 41,962 $355,100 $444,712 $620,370
Dec 2006 44,794 $358,810 $445,173 $620,370
Nov 2006 47,124 $359,605 $445,463 $621,387
Oct 2006 48,067 $360,038 $449,609 $621,387
Sep 2006 47,561 $363,553 $450,500 $621,457
Aug 2006 46,408 $365,700 $453,627 $625,172
Jul 2006 44,460 $369,940 $456,393 $636,981
Jun 2006 41,618 $370,894 $460,939 $643,759
May 2006 38,227 $370,894 $461,100 $649,048
Apr 2006 35,332 $370,576 $461,100 $652,575

Now do you think prices have bottomed? The inflation adjusted price chart from Schiller still puts prices the highest they've been in the last 130 years. Of course that chart does not factor in the size of the homes or any other changes to the home. It just takes the median price (adjusted for inflation). Since homes are probably at least twice the size and have many more features, you could certainly make the argument that they could be less expensive. I'd say the chart is useful for entertainment purposes only or possibly useful if used on a cross section of older homes. But using it across the board when in the last 10 to 20 years the size and extravagance of homes has gone way up isn't practical.


4 comments:

alex said...

On you last point, while the size and extravagance of houses has gone up over the past few years relative to the previous 100 (and I might dispute that the move to indoor plumbing in the 20s might have been more 'extravagant'), has income gone up in step, particularly over the past 10 years?

FreedomCM

Oldtimer said...

Prices have corrected from around $200/sf to around $100/sf (a little more in better neighborhoods, a little less in worse neighborhoods, and a lot less when you go out to east Egypt). Adjusting for inflation, which incomes have kept up with, these are about the same prices that existed throughout the 1980s and 1990s.

Razor said...

it's interesting to see the 75th percentile gravitate towards the jumbo loan limit of $417,000. Its got everything to do with availability and pricing of financing...

golfer_X said...

I doubt that's it. Anyone getting a $417k loan is buying a house around $500k because you just can't get a loan that size without at least 10% down. And anyone going in with less than 20% is being made to jump through hoops these days. Even if you get loan approval the MI underwriters are being incredibly picky these days. I'm hearing of lots of loans that can't get insured.