Tuesday, June 15, 2010

May numbers

The May numbers from DQ are out ans they show quite a comeback. But even DQ admits this is primarily due to the higher end homes starting to move along with fewer low end homes selling. The numbers for the IE are a mixed bag. The sales numbers (which are a better gauge of market health) don't look good. Normal increase from April to March is about 6%. This we we barely cracked 1% increase. Prices increase quite a bit, but again this is probably due to the drop out of the low end of the market when the tax credit expired.

Southern California home sales rose last month in all but the lowest price categories as buyers took advantage of tax credits and low mortgage rates. The median price paid topped $300,000 for the first time in 20 months, largely because the ultra bargains have been drying up in the low-cost inland areas while sales have increased in the pricier coastal neighborhoods, a real estate information service reported.

A total of 22,270 new and resale houses and condos closed escrow in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties last month. That was up 9.7 percent from 20,299 in April, and up 7.2 percent from 20,775 in May 2009, according to MDA DataQuick of San Diego.

May sales were the highest for that month since May 2006, but they still fell 15.0 percent short of the average number sold in May since 1988, when DataQuick’s statistics begin. The 9.7 percent increase in sales between April and May compares with an average change of 6 percent since 1988.

The combination of tax incentives and low mortgage rates helped stoke sales in mid- to high-end areas, where distress has increased over the last year and sellers have become more motivated and realistic.

Meantime, sales have fallen in many affordable inland communities. In May, zip codes in the bottom one-third of the market, based on their historical prices, saw resales of single-family houses drop 3.9 percent from April and drop 16.2 percent from a year earlier. Part of the decline reflects the dwindling foreclosure inventory, which had been the major draw for first-time buyers and investors. In the upper one-third of the market by price, May resales climbed 10.8 percent from April and rose 21.7 percent from last year.

This shift toward more high-end sales helped the Southland median jump $20,000 between April and May and $56,000 between this May and May 2009.

“The important thing to remember, though, is that what we saw in May was partly driven by government stimulus,” he continued. “In the second half of the year the market will have to stand on its own again, barring new forms of government involvement. Prices will be tested if there’s any sudden move by lenders to release a flood of distressed properties.”

Foreclosure resales accounted for 33.9 percent of the resale market last month, down from 36.4 percent in April and 49.8 percent a year earlier. The all-time high for foreclosure resales – homes that had been foreclosed on in the prior 12 months – was 56.7 percent in February 2009. Foreclosure resales have waned over the last year as lenders have channeled more distress into loan modifications and short sales.

Sales Volume Median Price
All homes May-09 May-10 %Chng May-09 May-10 %Chng
Los Angeles 6,521 7,320 12.3% $300,000 $345,000 15.0%
Orange 2,667 3,257 22.1% $410,000 $450,000 9.8%
Riverside 4,414 4,164 -5.7% $180,000 $210,000 16.7%
San Bernardino 3,134 2,835 -9.5% $137,000 $160,000 16.8%
San Diego 3,242 3,879 19.6% $295,000 $340,000 15.3%
Ventura 797 815 2.3% $355,000 $380,000 7.0%
SoCal 20,775 22,270 7.2% $249,000 $305,000 22.5%

No comments: