Tuesday, July 7, 2009

Prices to fall through 2011

Even the insurance company is expecting lower prices.....

Home prices will be lower in two years compared to Q109 for much of the country’s metropolitan statistical areas, (MSAs) according to an economic trends report released by PMI Mortgage Insurance Co.

As many as 324 — just over 85% — of the country’s 381 MSAs are facing the risk of lower home prices in 2011. In addition, 28 of the top 50 MSAs are now in the report’s highest risk category.

Florida, California, Nevada and Arizona are home to 36 of the most risky MSAs, but other regions are not immune, according to PMI’s chief economist and strategist David Berson.

“Rapidly rising foreclosure and unemployment rates, continuing declines in house prices, and weakening consumer demand all worked to increase risk in the general economy, and the housing market specifically,” Berson says in a statement today. “As a result of the continued weakness in prices, and the relatively low level of interest rates, improvements in affordability across the nation’s MSAs will continue to incentivize repeat and first-time homebuyers back into the market.”

The MSAs most likely to see decreased prices are the Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, California, Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, Florida, and Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA regions.

And here's a blurb on foreclosure numbers from the Times,

The percentage of Los Angeles County mortgages delinquent by 90 days or more in May was nearly double the rate last year, First American CoreLogic reported today.

May's 9.5% delinquency rate for L.A. County was up from 5% of mortgages late by 90 days or more in May 2008. First American bases its foreclosure analyses on public records.

While the default rate has nearly doubled, the number of homes actually being sold at auction -- the final foreclosure stage -- has shrunk. In May, the L.A. County repossession rate was down to 1% of mortgages, from 1.1% a year ago. This discrepancy is the "foreclosure backlog" now looming over the housing market. It's caused by various government-mandated and voluntary foreclosure moratoriums, and possibly by lenders trying to manage the flow of repossessed homes entering the market.

Nationally, First American reported 6.5% of mortgages were in default in May, up from 4% in May 2008. The national repossession rate was 0.7% in May, up from 0.6% in May 2007.......

This foreclosure backlog story is starting to show up everywhere! I just wish the foreclosures would start showing up.


bbb said...

ok can anyone help me out here ! i have a friend ( real estate agent) who says that real estate market has turned and going forward now! he's been saying this since 05 when housing started to collapse while i was say the oposite ! he's been blinded from the start ! well now in some areas of socal , moreno valley area in particular ,the cheap homes are getting multiple offers . i continue to tell him this isnt over yet and it looks to be a false bottom and not be fooled ! so today he responds with this {Hi guys,
just to let you know i made 14 offers for one couple and they havent won an offer yet. They even went $30,000 over on one of the offers !!! } this is his way of telling me im wrong ! we had a heated discussion about the market recently! he said i was to negative and i dont know what im talking about !that prices will not fall anymore and things will improve from here on out ! does anyone here have a good idea or way i can respond back to him regarding multiple offers and price increase just temporary and wont last ! im not very good at writing this type of info out in a short but firm way ! any help would be appreciated ! thankyou :)

boxrs4sale said...

As one economist put it:

"The is the mother of all headfakes"

In other words, be patient, it will start crashing down again and no one will want to buy.

Kane said...

Listing agents are purposely low-balling the listing price to gain interest in their property. It gets the attention of the bargain hunters and deludes themselves in that the market is getting better.

The reality is that it sold at market price, and getting it sold above the artificial low listing price is akin to winning the preschool edition of Trivia Pursuit.

Todd said...

Also be aware that for various reasons the supply of homes is artificially low at the moment (foreclosure moritoria, banks holding onto properties for some reason, etc. etc.). This artificial shortage combined with the usual increase in sales during the spring and summer months is part of the reason there are now bidding wars. Just wait a few weeks or months and I'd be willing to bet that things look a lot different.

golfer_X said...

And even with all this "frenzy" the sales numbers are still far below an average year. They sure look great compared to last year, but that was the worst year in decades.

FairEconomist said...

Your friend is obviously a broken clock. Someday he'll be right but he always says the same thing and it means *nothing*. Don't worry about him.

Prices in the outlying areas *might* have bottomed. *Might*. But even if so they won't go up for a long time.

There is a demographic exhaustion coming as the supply of houses will remain high but the supply of buyers will drop as bubble buyers have their assets exhausted and their credit ruined.

theyoungone said...


So I have been following this blog for a while now and came on here to relieve some anger. My husband and I have been in the market searching for a home since I was 21 now three years later we are still looking. I work as an accountant full time, but have my real estate license and believe me the only help it has given me is for my property information. For a while now we were looking in Eastvale area then decided to go for an older home just on the other side of the 15 with more property. Anyway, I remember a property that had been listed back in november of 2008 in eastvale (2,900sqft) at $279K I remember contacting them and they had multiple offers high offers.Keep in mind the bank had foreclosed on it and I verified it with the county recorder. Now the listing said it was closed by the listing agent for $245k ALL CASH. But as some of you may know the access we have to the MLS is different than the general public, when I want to see tax/loan info on a property I can by simply clicking on a button and it is all there. So in fact this home was bought using an FHA loan and not ALL CASH. The new owner of the home later added to the title a person with the same last name as the person who was foreclosed on. Please tell me I'm not crazy and that this WHOLE DEAL was corrupt!!. The biggest problem I ma having is that the MLS is supposed to record this property as a "bank sale" meaning when I search for comparable properties this home should come up as one of those but it does not. Foreclosed homes that have been bought are flagged with "bank sale". This one is not.Yet since much of the general public is unaware of the these things comparable properties in that area are still going for about $290k and up. IT just really upsets me how many corrupt Realtors there are. There are several times we have been outbid by ALL CASH buyers only to find out that they also were FHA buyers. Ahhh!! I've lost faith

adrin said...

It’s bad" that home prices will be lower in two years. Reis director of research Victor Calanog said. “It’s decaying and getting worse.

Boise real estate

Todd said...

Darn it! It looks like we all missed the bottom!


"La Jolla, CA---Southern California home sales rose in June to the highest level in 30 months as the number of deals above $500,000 continued to climb. June’s sales gain, plus another rise in the region’s median sale price, indicate buyers responded to price cuts on mid- to high-end homes and found it easier to secure financing for pricier abodes, a real estate information service reported."

The KABC news apparently used this as the basis of the story they ran on this evening's newscast.

stagingworks2009 said...

Prices fall in 2011? May be Yes and may be No. Many people are still not sure that today's economic slump will end up soon. Yet, it doesn't mean that there is no hope.Let's see. From Toronto Home Stager