Friday, July 10, 2009

Here's a little light reading

I particularly like page 25!

T2 Partners

14 comments:

FM71 said...

"Recent Signs of Stabilization Are Likely the Mother of All Head Fakes"

Suweet!!!

golfer_X said...

FM71 Nice Car! And I see you like the single malts too. I'm sitting here enjoying a nice wee dram of Macallan(12).

FM71 said...

Thanks X. I was doing the same last night too and having Talisker(18). Both great stuff. I'm a little slow to get up this morning.

Playing Trilogy this morning and heard that the greens are in bad shape. I hope not since I like the course but haven't played it in over two years. More importantly, I have to make sure that I drink plenty of water(with Motrins). I don't want to dehydrate in the sizzling IE heat.

golfer_X said...

I haven't played Trilogy in about 6 months. The greens are usually good unless they've plugged them. It's kinda late in the year right now to be doing that. I played Eagle Glen yesterday and the greens were nice. It was hot as hell though. Tomorrow I am playing in a men's club tourny at Los Serranos.

Sorry for all the golf talk folks!

FM71 said...

It was hot out there today X. I got a little dizzy out there. The only complaint I have about the greens were that the cup kept moving. ;^) Too many beers. Other than that the course is in nice shape. Unfortunately I had a blow-up hole on 18 that killed my score card.

I live about 10 minutes away from Serranos. Even though you don't cover Chino Hills I still follow your blog because it covers the rest of the IE.

Prices have dropped here but have kinda slowed down. I drive around and see a ton of phantom inventory. My opinion is that by the end of the year things will be very different here. My neighbors think I'm crazy but they're just in denial. I'm just waiting to get through the next wave and then I'm gonna pounce!!! I'm just being patient.

Keep up the great work see you on the course X.

golfer_X said...

I'm with ya on the Chino Hills dream pipe smokers. They do seem to think they are somehow immune up in the hills. I'd attribute it to altitude and lack of oxygen but they're only a few hundred feet up. They too will fall....

Well, I played a rather "mediocre" game today. I hit a lot of not very good shots and had a lot of soooper long first putts. Now I'm drowning my sorrows in an nice glass of Balvenie!

bbb said...

im not sure about everyone in here but i have literally lost friends who happen to be brokers and real estate agents , over this housing crash !im an investor . they all say im to negative and pessimistic and that the housing has bottomed and now rebounding !ive known them for fifteen years and they wont even talk to me now ! very depressing! here recently ive been wondering if just maybe i got it wrong and the bottom has arived and things will get better !ive been second guessing myself ! but with all the data i follow and analyze i continue to believe we are just in the middle of this whole mess !in the eye or calm of the storm so to speak ! anyone else been feeling this way ? please tell me that these green shoots everyone is talking about realy aren't green ! or am i wrong ?

golfer_X said...

That's a bit shallow of your friends! I have friends that are agents or brokers and we don't see 100% eye to eye on this market. They are in the biz so they have to have some faith even if it's only for show. I want to believe they are not so dull as to think we are out of the woods.

Some areas might have hit bottom. I have a hard time believing places like Hemet can go too much lower. But most of the better areas probably have a long way to go.

The economy is in shambles, defaults are setting records and if interest rates do go up the buyer pool will vanish. If it were not for all the government programs (tax credits and stuff) half the buyer pool would already be gone.

Sales are still way below normal, a good portion of those sale are only happening because the government is offering basically no-down loans and a large portion of the rest are investors buying rentals. That's not a healthy market and unhealthy markets can turn deadly very quickly.

Even if the bottom has arrived (and in most areas it hasn't) it's certainly not going to take off again. We'll be rolling along the bottom for a decade.

OSA said...

X. For the better areas (like Corona) how much further do you believe it will fall percentage wise. I agree about Hemet and San Jacinto. Here prices are actually going up due to the low prices and low inventory

golfer_X said...

To get back to "normal" levels it probably needs to drop another 20%. The problem is the banks need to get off their asses and start foreclosing and getting those homes onto the market. If the government keeps meddling that 20% could take 5 years.

bbb said...

golfer_X , i agree ! im not to worried about the friend thing !i'll make new friends :). its not my fault they chose to keep their blinders on and not accept the facts for the last several years ! just wondering how you feel about the moreno valley area ? i was purchasing 3 and 4 bedroom homes between 40 and 70thousand daily back in 1996 !in the last few mos home prices dropped drastically , not to 96 prices but 70-100 thousand average . ive seen several of these homes receive 20-30 offers bumping the selling price up 30-50 thousand , making it unrealistic for this market we are in !ive noticed this in other areas as well . i was buying homes for 15-30 thousand in the san bernardino area. i feel that we still havent seen a true bottom in these areas for numerous reasons! whats your take on this ?

golfer_X said...

I haven't left town! Work is making me actaully work this week and I've been getting home too late to do any blogging. Hopefully I'll be posting again soon.

X

John said...

Great site, golfer_x. My parents live in Corona by the Eagle Glen golf course and they have their business in San Bernardino, so it's nice to get some detailed info on their area.

And as one single-malt lover to another, if you haven't already, check out a bottle of Lagavulin 16. They have it at certain Costcos.

golfer_X said...

I'll check the next time I'm in Costco to see if they have it. I've got bottles of Dalwhinnie (decent), Balvenie (eh, not sure yet), Glenlivet (mmmm) and Macallan (it's Macallan so it's good) so I'm definitely not short of inventory. Of course I do have one or two glasses every night. Tonight's drink of choice is Glenlivet 18, one of my current favorites. Unfortunately I've about polished this bottle off now.

Eagle Glen is a nice area. It's one of my favorite areas of Corona. Plus there's a Bevmo close by!