Wednesday, April 15, 2009

The March numbers are out

Data quick has released the March report. Nothing surprising in it. Sales up, prices down..... The monthly drop in the IE median price was $3k for both Riverside and San Berdu. Sales numbers look strong compared to last year. But last year was the worst on record and this year is still running far below average. The average March sees over 25000 homes sold and this March was less than 20000. So we were more than 20% below average. There's usually an increase in median prices this time of year (the seasonal bump), this year it's turned into a smaller rate of decline. Riverside only dropped 1.6% last month and San Berdu fell 2% (about 1/2 of last months declines). On a monthly basis that's small but on a yearly basis it's a large decline. It's interesting that the reoprt indicates that foreclosures are back up to near record levels. I wonder when those will start hitting the market?

A total of 19,486 new and resale homes sold in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties last month. That was up 27.9 percent from 15,231 for the prior month, and up 52.1 percent from 12,808 for March 2008, according to MDA DataQuick of San Diego.

An increase from February to March is normal for the season. Last month was the ninth in a row with a year-over-year sales increase. March last year was the slowest March in DataQuick's statistics, which go back to 1988. The March average is 25,138.

Regionwide, foreclosure resales accounted for 55.4 percent of March's resales activity, down from a revised 56.7 percent in February and up from 35.7 percent in March 2008.

The median price paid for a Southland home was $250,000 last month, the same as in January and February. That was down 35.1 percent from $385,000 for March a year ago. The median peaked at $505,000 in mid 2007.

The typical monthly mortgage payment that Southland buyers committed themselves to paying was $1,074 last month, down from $1,090 for February, and down from a revised $1,841 for March a year ago. Adjusted for inflation, current payments were 50.8 percent below typical payments in the spring of 1989, the peak of the prior real estate cycle. They were 59.7 percent below the current cycle's peak in July 2007.

Indicators of market distress continue to move in different directions. Foreclosure activity is nearing its 2008 peak, while financing with adjustable-rate mortgages is at an all-time low, as is financing with multiple mortgages. Down payment sizes and flipping rates are stable, and non-owner occupied buying activity is above-average in some markets, MDA DataQuick reported.

Sales Volume Median Price
All homes Mar-08 Mar-09 %Chng Mar-08 Mar-09 %Chng
Los Angeles 4,263 5,971 40.1% $440,000 $300,000 -31.80%
Orange 1,663 2,413 45.1% $506,000 $390,000 -22.90%
Riverside 2,691 4,409 63.8% $306,250 $187,000 -38.90%
San Bernardino 1,534 2,897 88.9% $265,000 $150,000 -43.40%
San Diego 2,108 3,020 43.3% $395,000 $285,000 -27.80%
Ventura 549 776 41.3% $430,000 $326,000 -24.20%
SoCal 12,808 19,486 52.1% $385,000 $250,000 -35.10%


wiseone said...


I appreciate your words of wisdom. I am planning to buy in La Quinta. Any suggestions? I have seen the prices come down. Staying away fro REO and short sales, Too much trouble. Thanks1

BTW signing from Seattle Wa

golfer_X said...

La Quinta is still quite high athough right next door in indio the prices have fallen quite a bit. I would wait at least a year for La Quinta. There should be no issue buying an REO if your credit is solid or you're paying cash. Shorts on the other hand are just a pain in the ass.