Tuesday, March 17, 2009

February report from DataQuick

The February numbers were released by DataQuick today. The report is about as expected. Sales are still humming along at the low end but the numbers are still well below average years. They are well up from last year, but that was the worst year on record. Prices are down again but the declines are slowing a bit as expected.

So here's the report,

Southland home sales stayed above year-ago levels for the eighth consecutive month in February as the median price halted its month-to-month decline for the first time in ten months. Market activity was dominated by bargain-hunting in affordable neighborhoods while buying and selling in more expensive established areas remained largely on hold, a real estate information service reported.

A total of 15,231 new and resale homes sold in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties last month. That was essentially unchanged from 15,227 for January, and up 41.3 percent from 10,777 for February 2008, according to MDA DataQuick of San Diego.

Sales have increased on a year-to-year basis since last July. February a year ago was the slowest February in DataQuick's statistics, which go back to 1988. The February average is 18,120.

egionwide, foreclosure resales accounted for 56.4 percent of February’s resales activity, which was the same as the revised January figure and up from 36.2 percent in February 2008.

The median price paid for a Southland home was $250,000 last month, the same as in January. That was down 38.7 percent from $408,000 for February a year ago. The median peaked at $505,000 in mid 2007.

In today's market, the drop in the median overstates the decline in home values. The more affordable inland markets with most of the discounted foreclosures account for a large share of today's sales, while homes in the upper half of the market are not selling well, and are under-represented in the statistics. ( Funny how they assume the low end is "underpricing the median", maybe its the high end that's still priced too high. Sooner or later they will submit and lower the prices too).



Sales Volume Median Price
All homes Feb-08 Feb-09 %Chng Feb-08 Feb-09 %Chng
Los Angeles 3,468 4,590 32.4% $460,000 $299,000 -35.0%
Orange 1,471 1,879 27.7% $520,000 $375,000 -27.9%
Riverside 2,147 3,420 59.3% $325,000 $190,000 -41.5%
San Berdu 1,242 2,324 87.1% $290,000 $153,000 -47.2%
San Diego 1,954 2,473 26.6% $415,000 $285,000 -31.3%
Ventura 495 545 10.1% $445,000 $327,000 -26.5%
SoCal 10,777 15,231 41.3% $408,000 $250,000 -38.7%

The median for Riverside dropped 2.5% last month from $195k down to $190k

The median for San Berdu dropped 5.5% from $162k down to $153k!

6 comments:

Oldtimer said...

Adjusting for inflation, $190K (Riverside Co.) and $153K (San Berdu Co.) amounts to around $97K and $77K in 1985 dollars.

I don't think many would have blanched at those median prices back then. That was before Fannie and Freddie went off-post; securitization was still a small part of the mortgage business.

Maybe homes will keep getting cheaper and cheaper, but I don't believe real home prices have been this low in these counties in a few decades.

golfer_X said...

Well the median in 85 was $85k.

Adjusted for inflation today's payments are WELL below what I was paying in 1988 when I bought my first house. Heck I could buy my house today at it's current value and with a 30 year fixed at 5% I think my payments would actually be lower than my payments were in 88 without adjusting for inflation. A 10.5% rate versus a 5% rate makes a helluva difference.

Unless the employment get significantly worse I can't see the prices in the hinterlands getting much lower. I do believe the nicer areas and the higher end still have a way to go.

Most of the higher end homes are still asking way too much (2003-2004 prices). The REOs that pop up are are closer to 2002 prices but that's still too high. The good news is that the high priced ones are just sitting and the few REOs that hit the market at decent prices sell. There was a big drop in prices over the holidays at the high end. I want to see another 20% before I pull the trigger though. Those $500k houses need to drop closer to $400k.

Anonymous said...

Yeah, the nicer areas just.can't.quite.get.over.that 2003-2004 hump. It seems like they're sticking with their prices in hopes that the Easter Bunny will be kinder to them than Santa was and bring them some tasty chocolate covered knife catchers.

Unknown said...

The big problem with trying to adjust for inflation is that wages haven't grown like cpi.

Household income in 1985 was mostly a single earner family, while in 2009 it is a two earner family. (maybe 2010 it will be back to a single earner family?) Wait a while to see what happens to median household income in the last and next year. I think that even the current house prices will look historically expensive relative to household income.

FreedomCM

Unknown said...

Actually,
If you look at Real Personal Incomes, incomes on aggregate has been rising in the most part above inflation (except for a couple dips) over the last 30 years.

Personal Incomes rising

Personal income disregards the household income (dual incomes, etc.).

So, using constant dollars, home prices in the IE in depressed markets are well bellow that of the 80s.

-chuck22b

Martin Burtin said...

Quit spam'n us with that alpha website, chucky. If you want to sell something go make your own blog or at least pay Golfer for your ads.