Wednesday, December 19, 2007

Some banks are getting a clue

here's a couple of example of banks that are finally getting a clue about the current market.

16247 Boxford CRK, Riverside, CA 92503 This home is in a decent part of Riverside. It's a KB Home, the tract was built starting last year and I believe they are still building them. Our feature presentation is 4132 sf and has 3 beds and 2.5 baths (seems kinda odd for the size?). This home was purchased new in Jan 2006 for $787K. (This must have been one of the first homes sold in this tract). Fast forward a couple of years and the bank takes the home back for $562k in early December. Normally they would have listed the home for at least what they are owed. But fear, desperation or maybe a small dose of reality has persuaded them to list it for the bargain price of $494k.
Total loss, $293K or 38% in two years.

16414 Ridge Field DR, Riverside, CA 92503 This is another Lake Hills implosion. This home is 4094 sf and is a 4 bed 4 bath. Purchased new in August of 06 for $965k (right at the peak). This poor sucker could not have purchased at a worse time. The bank in now the not so proud owner of this mini mansion. They took it back last month for $832k. They did not even bother trying to list it for anything close to what was owed. They listed it at $532,500. Good thing too, because there are 2 identical homes both listed at $530k. The bank has this listed for $300K less than the loan. That's a 36% loss to the 1st and a 100% loss to any 2nd lien holder ( we all know there was a second, right).

If this sells at $532 the loss will be $433K or 45%.

Even at these prices I think these homes are overpriced. They still don't pencil out using equivalent rental costs.

Let's take a look at home one.

$494k with 20% down and a 30 year fixed at 6.5% gets you a Payment of $2500.
Taxes and Mello Roos on this home is 1.8% or $740/mo
Add anothe $200/mo for insurance

Grand total (give or take a couple of hundred) is $3440.

The best you could hope to rent this home for is $2500. You would probably have a helluva hard time renting either one of these for anywhere near that considering they have dirt yards. Anyone that can drop $2500/mo on rent is smart enough to find a home with a nice yard. So this home still comes up roughly $1000/mo short. Even at 38% off this home is no where near it's actual "value".

This house would have to sell for $350k in order to break even renting it for $2500/mo.


ButterMonkey said...

How about the Victoria Woods area of Riverside? When are those prices going to take a dive? Those are some stubborn sellers over there!

golfer_X said...

The problem with that area is that most of the homes are older so there are not lots of recent sales. That means there are not a lot of REOs putting pressure on the homes that are for sale. That does not mean those homes will sell at the ridiculous asking prices most are listed for. They will just sit until they are pulled or the reality of the market hits home and people reduce the price. The prices are starting to come down. I found a few homes that were listed close to a million and are now down into the mid 700s. I found a REO for 1 million in the middle of a bunch listed for 1.4 million. But yea, most of those people have lived there forever, they don't need to sell so they will be stubborn. That's just going to cost them in the long run.

ButterMonkey said...

There are maybe three repo homes in that area. Our real estate agent showed them to us and HOOWEE, they were skanky! The bank was still asking $605,000 for one of them. I wanted to call them up and ask if they understand the conditions of the market right now.

I love the neighborhood, but $550,000 for a 4 bd, 2 ba, 2000 sq. ft., 50-60 year old house in Riverside is ridiculous.

Anonymous said...

The lake hills area is unbelievable. They are still plopping down new houses up there, meanwhile right up the street there are tons of houses for sale including 2 big houses right next door to each other that are both short sales that are bigger and cheaper than what they are building.