Saturday, November 17, 2007

Free houses by next winter? October Numbers

How's this for a headline? "At the current rate of decline homes will be free by next winter". The median price in Riverside has dropped about $25k for the last 2 months. In August the median was $394, last month the median sales price was $374 and this month it is $350k. Dropping $25k per month it would only take 14 months for the median to be zero.... This is a fine example of how numbers and trends can be twisted to reflect just about any type of propaganda.

Back to reality for a second. At the current rate Riverside will drop below $300k median in December or January. Where should Riverside's median be? If you read the post a few months ago, using the NAR charts for Riverside I calculated the median would be between 150K and 225k if the market had been "normal" for the last 6 years.

The numbers for October were dismal. No surprise there really! We set another record low for sales, at least as far back as DataQuick records go (1988). Riverside sales were down 44% from last year and the median price was down 15%. San Berdu did not do much better with sales down 55% and the median price down 10%.

Riverside county had 2463 sales last month and there are roughly 32,300 homes for sale (on the MLS). That equates to a 13 month supply of homes. San Berdu sold 1603 and it has 22,900, giving it over 14 months of inventory.

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