Monday, September 22, 2008

August sales by zip

Here's the sales numbers and median prices by zip code. These are for houses only so the median is a little higher than you might otherwise see.



SFR Price % chg $/Sq Ft
Countywide
### $235 -40.50% $120
Banning 92220 44 $150 -44.90% $113
Beaumont 92223 69 $235 -25.40% $116
Blythe 92225 6 $183 -20.70% $138
Cabazon 92230 1 $157 -37.60% $107
Calimesa 92320 7 $235 -33.80% $163
Canyon Lake 92587 34 $246 -50.30% $121
Cathedral City 92234 69 $220 -32.80% $125
Coachella 92236 21 $200 -26.70% $96
Corona 92879 66 $285 -38.60% $159
Corona 92880 117 $363 -35.00% $133
Corona 92881 34 $371 -36.40% $158
Corona 92882 116 $332 -34.90% $167
Corona 92883 78 $346 -20.00% $145
Dsrt Hot Springs 92240 81 $126 -49.60% $80
Dsrt Hot Springs 92241 3 $183 -26.60% $84
Hemet 92543 25 $110 -51.80% $85
Hemet 92544 55 $173 -33.10% $106
Hemet 92545 89 $185 -37.40% $92
Homeland 92548 4 $195 -55.20% $89
Idyllwild 92549 18 $290 -12.10% $257
Indian Wells 92210 10 #### 23.70% $348
Indio 92201 66 $205 -38.60% $117
Indio 92203 50 $250 -42.30% $105
La Quinta 92253 69 $340 -27.90% $166
Lake Elsinore 92530 111 $190 -46.90% $112
Lake Elsinore 92532 44 $260 -50.20% $101
Mecca 92254 3 $85 -66.00% $67
Menifee 92584 98 $246 -31.80% $110
Mira Loma 91752 34 $359 -27.10% $138
Moreno Valley 92551 79 $185 -51.30% $107
Moreno Valley 92553 116 $150 -51.60% $103
Moreno Valley 92555 84 $240 -38.10% $96
Moreno Valley 92557 88 $185 -47.50% $113
Mountain Center 92561 1 $199 -70.70% $100
Murrieta 92562 124 $285 -31.20% $119
Murrieta 92563 159 $280 -29.60% $108
Norco 92860 37 $445 -23.90% $163
Nuevo 92567 15 $205 -54.40% $135
Palm Desert 92211 27 $361 -9.90% $173
Palm Desert 92260 17 $358 -16.00% $175
Palm Springs 92262 32 $390 -9.80% $233
Palm Springs 92264 21 $740 18.20% $288
Perris 92570 41 $220 -35.90% $113
Perris 92571 133 $178 -48.10% $95
Rancho Mirage 92270 21 $603 -29.90% $229
Riverside 92501 28 $225 -39.20% $153
Riverside 92503 89 $237 -38.50% $146
Riverside 92504 49 $210 -38.40% $156
Riverside 92505 51 $234 -49.20% $153
Riverside 92506 40 $265 -50.10% $179
Riverside 92507 35 $240 -36.40% $164
Riverside 92508 41 $290 -29.40% $132
Riverside 92509 75 $216 -38.30% $139
San Jacinto 92582 32 $200 -43.70% $84
San Jacinto 92583 50 $150 -48.10% $87
Sun City 92585 29 $220 -38.10% $112
Sun City 92586 30 $167 -25.80% $108
Temecula 92590 1 $910 -5.50% $220
Temecula 92591 76 $295 -29.50% $137
Temecula 92592 111 $330 -24.10% $128
Thousand Palms 92276 4 $172 n/a $108
White Water 92282 1 $109 -55.30% $73
Wildomar 92595 40 $239 -44.00% $116
Winchester 92596 43 $275 -26.90% $101
























SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY SFR Price % chg $/Sq Ft
Countywide
### $205 -41.40% $128
Adelanto 92301 45 $115 -50.10% $78
Angeles Oaks 92305 3 $114 46.80% $143
Apple Valley 92307 61 $157 -38.40% $95
Apple Valley 92308 61 $135 -51.50% $101
Barstow 92311 19 $120 -33.30% $77
Big Bear City 92314 24 $208 -29.70% $193
Big Bear Lake 92315 42 $333 -2.10% $269
Bloomington 92316 29 $195 -48.00% $138
Cedar Glen 92321 3 $125 48.80% $121
Cedarpines Park 92322 4 $112 31.20% $116
Chino 91710 38 $350 -24.70% $195
Chino Hills 91709 53 $478 -16.90% $225
Colton 92324 35 $153 -53.60% $126
Crest Park 92326 1 $775 103.90% $325
Crestline 92325 25 $171 -31.40% $137
Fawnskin 92333 2 $233 -73.30% $198
Fontana 92335 68 $189 -51.40% $137
Fontana 92336 150 $311 -28.50% $140
Fontana 92337 62 $230 -40.10% $145
Forest Falls 92339 2 $185 38.10% $102
Grand Terrace 92313 10 $238 -33.00% $153
Green Valley Lake 92341 1 $225 -9.30% $153
Helendale 92342 12 $202 -30.60% $96
Hesperia 92344 54 $210 -42.90% $85
Hesperia 92345 99 $164 -42.50% $99
Highlands 92346 62 $200 -40.30% $131
Hinkley 92347 2 $37 -33.60% $44
Joshua Tree 92252 12 $108 -42.90% $92
Lake Arrowhead 92352 18 $349 -16.00% $323
Landers 92285 1 $144 2.50% $109
Loma Linda 92354 14 $281 -34.70% $191
Lucerne Valley 92356 3 $145 -28.20% $125
Lytle Creek 92358 1 $110 -54.20% $107
Mentone 92359 5 $225 -30.90% $154
Montclair 91763 23 $264 -32.30% $195
Morongo Valley 92256 4 $167 -21.60% $115
Needles 92363 2 $190 36.70% $117
Ontario 91761 32 $310 -23.50% $182
Ontario 91762 20 $260 -36.60% $176
Ontario 91764 38 $225 -36.20% $183
Phelan 92371 19 $214 -37.10% $111
Pinon Hills 92372 8 $199 -33.40% $109
R Cucamonga 91701 35 $385 -20.20% $195
R Cucamonga 91730 29 $310 -29.30% $201
R Cucamonga 91737 30 $416 -38.20% $224
R Cucamonga 91739 53 $500 -15.60% $174
Redlands 92373 21 $370 -17.10% $212
Redlands 92374 30 $223 -34.40% $144
Rialto 92376 73 $185 -41.40% $122
Rialto 92377 33 $236 -42.90% $136
Running Springs 92382 16 $155 -34.00% $147
San Bernardino 92404 58 $133 -54.90% $110
San Bernardino 92405 41 $130 -40.10% $97
San Bernardino 92407 52 $190 -43.70% $123
San Bernardino 92408 5 $203 -35.70% $130
San Bernardino 92410 32 $105 -67.00% $103
San Bernardino 92411 27 $90 -59.10% $89
Sugarloaf 92386 7 $162 -41.10% $157
Twentynine Palms 92277 22 $93 -10.60% $82
Twin Peaks 92391 5 $79 -64.40% $125
Upland 91784 24 $530 -13.10% $211
Upland 91786 18 $325 -33.00% $204
Victorville 92392 103 $159 -46.80% $85
Victorville 92394 36 $160 -41.30% $82
Victorville 92395 56 $159 -36.50% $95
Wrightwood 92397 5 $225 -4.30% $184
Yermo 92398 1 $325 174.30% $99
Yucaipa 92399 44 $275 -21.00% $143
Yucca Valley 92284 44 $125 -47.20% $90






Sunday, September 21, 2008

How much would you owe?



If we actually had to cut a check for our share of this freakin financial bailout how much would yours be? The total cost is estimated to be 700 billion dollars. That's a number that is so big it's hard to wrap your head around. They might as well say it's 700 gazillion, because to the average guy on the street a billion is incomprehensible.

Assuming there are 300 million people in the US then each person would owe $2333. So the share for my family of 5 is over $11k.

700 billion is a staggering number. Where is it going to come from. The US is already 10 trillion in the hole (give or take a trillion). A trillion is another number that is so big mortals cannot begin to understand it. It's like one of those scribbles a theoretical physicist writes on a board to explain why the universe weighs more than it should.

And the biggest question of them all is "how is this bailout going to help me?". Well it's not going to help you or me. Other than hopefully keeping the US out of another great depression the average Joe gets no benefit from this. The banks benefit, Wall street benefits, but the average Joe gets squat....again. This is not going to help the foreclosure crisis. It's likely to make it worse. There is now ZERO incentive for banks to save a loan. Why would they? when they can just unload it on the taxpayers.

I'd like to see a few added provisions to this bailout. I'd like to see some of that 700 billion spent on tracking down every last person that helped create this mess. From hedge fund managers right down to the strawberry picker that lied on their mortgage application. If the government is going to buy all the toxic waste from the banks with our tax dollars then I want the banks to offer low interest loans to home buyers. If our tax dollars are being spent to fix this mess then we should be able to get a low interest loan (as long as we can actually qualify). It seems only fair that we should get some benefit after bailing out the banks.

This whole thing just pisses me off. It's hard to believe that our so called leaders could not see this mess coming. Did they think we could all just keep spending more and more for ever. Did they think that houses doubling in price every 5 years was a good thing. Did any of them stop and ask themselves who would be able to afford to live in the US in 20 years if this kept up.

Saturday, September 20, 2008

Foreclosure numbers will soon plummet

Wait for the news next month. The numbers of foreclosures will plummet to the lowest amount in many months. The media and the NAR/CAR will surely spin this for all it's worth. But is this a sign of recovery. Eh..NO, it's a sign that the new California law SB1137 has taken effect. This law makes in more difficult and time consuming for lenders and banks to foreclose. It requires them to contact each borrower in person and assess each ones financial situation and explore options to avoid foreclosure. This is already having the effect of cutting the number of daily transactions drasticly. One of the reasons the foreclosure numbers were probably so high last month was that the banks were sending out as many notices as possible before this law took effect.

However, this is only a temporary delay. Once the banks get the notices out the numbers will shoot back up. In fact there is likely to be a huge increase as all these backlogged foreclosures will hit the market at the same time. I'de look for the numbers to shoot back up at the end of the year, Nov/Dec time frame

Housing downturn takes toll on job rolls in other sectors

Unemployment continued its climb in Inland Southern California in August and is approaching the level of the 1990s, when the area was reeling from the loss of two major military bases.

The jobless rate in Riverside and San Bernardino counties rose to an estimated 9.2 percent last month from a revised 9 percent in July, the state Employment Development Department reported Friday. Unemployment in the Inland area was 6.4 percent a year ago.

Unemployment in July was first estimated at 8.9 percent, and has now been revised to 9 percent. It got as high as 11 percent in 1993. (Any bets on how high it will be this time??)

"All of this is about housing," Inland economist John Husing said. "The mortgage market has set up this chaos on Wall Street."

Ed Milson, a self-employed masonry contractor from Mentone, was forced to shut down most of his operations in the spring. Jobs used to bring him between $20 and $25 an hour, but he said now all he can find is stopgap work paying less than half that much.

"The slowdown just hit us hard," said Milson, 57, who was looking for alternatives at a job fair in San Bernardino earlier in the week sponsored by state and county agencies. "We had a couple of jobs that went south and we couldn't keep it going."

There were an estimated 166,500 unemployed people in the Inland area last month, compared to 114,500 in August 2007. The jobless rate is the highest for any August since 1995.

Local governments in the Inland area trimmed 7,000 positions from its payrolls in August, and Husing said this was the latest blow from the housing meltdown. Sales tax revenues are down because fewer people are buying the big-ticket items, such as furniture, major appliances and barbecues, that are usually associated with home purchases.

"The discretionary budget of cities is heavily dependent on retail sales," Husing said. "Now it's a new fiscal year and cities are cutting back."

"This high unemployment rate means these people are not going to be spending much money, and if they're homeowners it means it could be the next wave of people looking at foreclosures," Adibi said. "This slowdown is not hurting companies as much as it is the self-employed."


And in related news.....

Weekend Warrior RV manufacturer goes out of business

Weekend Warrior Trailers Inc., which in 2005 had 1,000 Inland employees, has gone out of business, an official supervising the company's liquidation said Friday.

The demise of Weekend Warrior makes it the second large Inland recreational vehicle manufacturer to go out of business in less than a year. National RV, also based in Perris, shut down in November. A smaller company, Ontario's Alfa Leisure, closed its doors in the spring.

Owner Mark Warmoth said in July that he'd closed two of Weekend Warrior's four factories, and that the company remained in trouble. He blamed poor economic conditions that have hurt the entire industry.

Friday, September 19, 2008

IE unemployment hits 9.2%

Unemployment in Riverside and San Bernardino counties climbed to 9.2 percent in August, up from a revised 9 percent the month before, the state reported this morning.

There were 166,500 unemployed workers in the Inland Empire last month, compared to 114,500 in august 2007.

There are 25,000 fewer jobs in Inland Southern California than there were 12 months ago, according to the state Employment Development Department. Construction hiring is off more than 13 percent, but almost every sector of the region's economy has scaled back its hiring.

OT; When your daughter borrows your camera

When your early 20's daughter borrows your camera you never know what you'll find on the memory card!

Looks like it was a helluva party!

Wednesday, September 17, 2008

Mystery of the world wide brick shortage solved!

This guy has them all. And he has put them to use turning his house into the biggest chimney in Corona.



If the Chimney and the pillars holding up the balcony aren't enough brick for ya you'll be happy to know there's more in the back yard. He has built the BBQ from bricks, put a little wall around the pool and surrounded the big tree with a brick planter.

Still can't satisfy that brickwork craving. Well fear not, he has more in the bedroom!

I don't know if there is more in the rest of the house since there are only a few pictures and 3 of those are of that victorian-esque monster chimney. I bet there is more in the kitchen or family room. Oh, and his price of $980k indicates that one or two of those bricks might have fallen on his head.

Another record price drop

The median price continues to plummet. In Riverside it has fallen 5% in the last month from $260k in July to $247k in August. In San Berdu the drop was 6.5%, from $230k in July to $215k in August. As you can see sales are much better than last year BUT last year was the worst since they began keeping records and this 30% below average. The only reason that sales number looks good is because they are comparing it to last year.

Here's the August Report from DataQuick.

Southern California home sales downshifted slightly in August from July, but were higher than a year ago for the second consecutive month. The median sales price continued to tumble, declining the most where buyers were the most active, a real estate information service reported.

The median price paid for all new and resale houses and condos sold in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties was $330,000 last month, down 5.2 percent from $348,000 in July and down a record 34 percent from $500,000 in August 2007, according to San Diego-based MDA DataQuick.

Last month's median stood at the lowest point since November 2003 when it was also $330,000. The median peaked at $505,000 in the spring and summer of last year.

"It's the most common and pressing question we hear from Wall Street and Main Street: When will the housing market hit bottom? We see tentative signs that sales - not prices - have hit bottom in some inland markets. That's where home values have fallen the most, stoking a lot more demand," said John Walsh, MDA DataQuick president.

"Some expect prices to bottom out soon, too," he continued. "That may happen, but history suggests that few of us will time the bottom precisely. Foreclosure activity remains high, credit is still tight, affordability remains strained on the coast and the job market is soft. Our take remains that a lot of buyers and sellers who don't have to act now are just sitting tight, holding out for a better time to make their move."

A total of 19,366 new and resale houses and condos closed escrow in Southern California last month. That was down 4.7 percent from 20,329 in July but up 9.1 percent from 17,755 in August 2007.

August's sales total was 30 percent lower than the average for that month and marked the third-lowest for any August since 1988, when MDA DataQuick's statistics begin. August sales peaked in 2003 at 39,562.

Sales have picked up most - sometimes at double or more last year's pace - in inland communities where home values have plummeted and foreclosures have soared. Foreclosure resales made up 45.5 percent of all Southland resales last month, up from 43.7 in July and 10 percent a year ago. The figure represents the percentage of homes resold in August that had been foreclosed on at some point in the prior 12 months.

Foreclosure resales were highest in Riverside County, at 65.2 percent of resales, and lowest in Orange County, at 33.4 percent.



Tuesday, September 16, 2008

A funny smell in Norco


No it's not horse poo, it's the smell of desperation. It comes from homes with listing prices only a fairy god mother could grant. Since all the fairies moved up north there's no hope, yet they still try. I've noticed more than a few of the ridiculous listings are owned by REALTORS (Remember the million dollar fake grass house in Victoria Grove).

Why do they bother? Are they low in meds. Is it hope, desperation or just plain stupidity that drives then to list homes at double the price of the comps. As so called "professionals" (that's what the radio ads call them), they should know there houses can't possibly sell at those prices. There's no way they will appraise that high. There's no way anyone could get a loan and people with enough to pay cash are usually smarter than that (that's how they got the cash).

Let's take a look at the latest gem I've found. 3845 Mount Shasta Dr in Norco. This is one of the newer homes built back against the hills in Norco. This home was built in early 2005 and sold new for $816k. That's pretty close to the peak so this REALTOR paid top dollar. Like most REALTORS he went on an upgrade spree, adding a pool, a stable and lots of landscaping. From the pictures this looks like a beautiful house. But he has listed it for $849k. Great price in 2006, not so great in late 08. The house is 3176 sq/ft and has 5 bedrooms and 3.5 baths. At his asking price that works out to $267 sq/ft.

What's his competion? On the same street there are currently 3 REO properties listed. They range in price from $477k to $499k and all three are bigger than the REALTORS place. The average price of the 3 REO's is about $130 sq/ft. Realtard is asking $267 sq/ft, that's more than double on a price per square foot basis!

In the last 3 months there have been 3 sales on the street. One was a model match to his and it sold back in July for $485K. A second of those sales is also a model match and it posted at $392K (although this might be the bank). I might even bite at that price! And the last sale, remarkable also a model match posted in at $475k. That's the comps. 3 recent sales with an average price of about $450k and 3 REO's still for sale all listed in the high $400s. Even factoring in his pool and stable he is about $350k too high. If you are interested he will consider a "lease option". hahahaha

And about the picture, no I did not pick a picture of the back yard because I like the pool. I picked it because there is NO picture of the front of the house. Isn't that taught on day one of REALTORS school? Take a freaking picture of the front of the house!

Monday, September 15, 2008

The weekly tumble

This weeks median listing price from housingtracker.net shows the prices are still heading towards the cellar. The median for the core areas dropped $5k this week. The high and and the low end dropped a bit less. The telling number is the inventory, it's up 10% in the last month.

These are the numbers for the core areas of Riverside Including Arlington, Bloomington, Box Springs, Canyon Crest, Casa Blanca, Colton, Corona, Crestmore, Fontana, Grand Terrace, Jurupa, La Sierra, Mira Loma, Moreno Valley, Norco, Perris, Rubidoux, Woodcrest


Trend09/14/20081 month3 month6 month12 month
Median Price$240,000-4.0%-12.7%-27.3%-42.6%
Inventory15,443+9.9%+4.2%+7.0%+0.7%


DateInventory25th Percentile50th Percentile
(Median)
75th Percentile
09/14/200815,443$177,900$240,000$339,000
09/07/200814,569$179,900$244,900$340,000
09/01/200813,852$180,000$248,000$345,000
08/29/200813,590$180,000$249,000$349,000
08/21/200813,661$184,900$249,900$349,900
08/14/200814,047$185,000$250,000$349,900