Tuesday, August 17, 2010

Holy Smokes Batman!

Here's your first real month of data after the government intervention ended. And it's shockingly bad. Sales from June to July were down 25% in Riverside and 28% on San Berdu. On top of that the median price also fell, with riverside seeing a 5% drop. .

La Jolla, CA---Southland home sales saw their biggest year-over-year drop in more than two years last month as the market lost most of the boost from the federal home buyer tax credits. The median sale price dipped for the second month in a row, the result of a shaky economic recovery, continued uncertainty about jobs, and the expiring tax breaks, a real estate information service reported.
A total of 18,946 new and resale homes were sold in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties in July. That was down 20.6 percent from 23,871 in June, and down 21.4 percent from 24,104 for July 2009, according to MDA DataQuick of San Diego.
This was the slowest July since 2007, when 17,867 homes were sold, and the second-slowest since July 1995, when 16,225 sold. Last month’s sales were 27.4 percent lower than the July average of 26,085 sales since 1988, when DataQuick’s statistics begin. The average change in sales between June and July is a 6.7 percent decline – about one-third the drop seen this year.
Last month’s 21.4 percent sales drop from a year ago marked the steepest year-over-year decline for Southland sales since March 2008, when sales fell 41.4 percent.
“It appears some of the sales that normally would have occurred in July were instead tugged into June or even May as buyers tried to take advantage of the expiring tax credits. Some of last month’s underlying technical numbers were largely flat, indicating that the market is treading water,” said John Walsh, MDA DataQuick president.
The median price paid for a Southland home was $295,000 last month. That was down 1.7 percent from $300,000 in June, and up 10.1 percent from $268,000 for July 2009. The low point of the current cycle was $247,000 in April 2009, while the high point was $505,000 in mid 2007.
The typical monthly mortgage payment that Southland buyers committed themselves to paying was $1,204 last month, down from $1,251 in June, and up from $1,180 in July 2009. Adjusted for inflation, current payments are 46.4 percent below typical payments in the spring of 1989, the peak of the prior real estate cycle. They were 56.1 percent below the current cycle’s peak in July 2007.
Indicators of market distress continue to move in different directions. Foreclosure activity remains high by historical standards but is lower than peak levels reached over the last two years. Financing with multiple mortgages is low, down payment sizes are stable, and non-owner occupied buying is above-average, MDA DataQuick reported.


Tyrone said...

And to think we still in the middle innings, best case.

theyenguy said...

Redfin reports that home prices in Hemet have fallen to $135,000 which is $70 to $100 per square foot.

City Data reports that home prices peaked in the second quarter of 2006 at $340,000.

The 3 bedroom, 2 bath, 1891 square foot home at 1261 Bee Balm Rd, Hemet, CA, 92545 sold for $135,000 which $71/sq foot.

City Data also reports that Hemet is on the top lists with

» #11 on the list of “Top 101 cities with the largest percentage of people in nursing homes (population 50,000+)”
» #15 on the list of “Top 101 cities with the highest unemployment growth from 2000 to 2009 (pop 50,000+)”
» #15 on the list of “Top 101 cities with the largest city-data.com crime index increase from 2000-2002 average to 2006 (population 50,000+)”
» #15 on the list of “Top 101 cities with the highest unemployment in 2009 (pop 50,000+)”
» #2 on the list of “Top 101 counties with the highest Ozone (8-hour) air pollution readings in 2005 (ppm)”
» #5 on the list of “Top 101 counties with the highest Ozone (1-hour) air pollution readings in 2005 (ppm)”