Saturday, November 28, 2009
There's no place like 2006
Here's a delusional seller, clicking his heals together and chanting "there's no place like 2006, there's no place like 2006, there's no place like 2006". Unfortunately his fairy god mother isn't going to wave a wand and bring those prices back for him. I would think that by now every one has gotten the message that the real estate bubble has popped. You can't list tract houses in the IE for $300 s/f any more. Even more amazing is that there's still agents willing to clutter up the MLS with these garbage listings.
12710 Canyonwind is in the Orchard Estates area near La Sierra Blvd and Victoria (just below Victoria Groves). This house was built in 2001 and it says it sold for $208k. I don't think that's right because these sold for around $400k. The house is huge at nearly 4800 s/f. It has 6 bedrooms and 3.5 baths. It's also got all the fancy fluff that people were putting in with bubble equity, like a theater, a fancy pool, a pond, a fake golf green etc. It's a nice house and I'm sure the owner has dumped $200k at least into all these upgrades. But the sad reality is that most of them don't add much to the value of the home. I doubt very much this house will fetch anything higher than $600k and even that is reaching right now. I've seen a lot of houses easily as nice as this one but slightly smaller selling in the mid $400s.
Even the 3 High estimates on the Redfin page are in line with my estimation. Zillow has it at $585, Eppraisal has it at $650k and Cyberhomes has it at $480k. There's not much in the way of Comps in the same tract but the ones listed on the Redfin page are all between $390k and $535k. So the Comps are in the $400-$535K range, the estimates are in the $480k to $650K range, what would you think they list it at? NOPE! $1.4 MILLION!!
Congratulations you get the ASS CLOWN AWARD for November