Friday, November 20, 2009

Here's some numbers to digest

Banks increased their Bank Owned (REO) inventory slightly, by taking back 22.24 percent more properties than the preceding month, while REO resale’s declined. The decline in REO resale’s is not unexpected as REO inventories have declined to a point that is insufficient to meet market demand.

Riverside Co.
Notice of Defaults.........last 120 days...13296.......... in Oct. 3872
N.O.T. sales currently scheduled.........15578.......... in Oct. 4377
Actual Trustee Sales.... last 120 Oct. 1997

(Of the 1997 Trustee sales about 75% went back to the beni, but nearly 500 were purchased by a 3rd party (mostly flippers/investors probably)

San Bernardino Co.
Notice of Defaults.........last 120 Oct. 3167
N.O.T. sales currently Oct. 3416
Actual Trustee Sale...... last 120 Oct. 1633

(of the 1633 about 82% went back to the beni, 300 were purchased by a 3rd party)

You can see that many more homes are being picked up at the trustee sales. A year ago nearly every home went back to the lenders. Now 20% to 25% are being purchased by 3rd parties. Many of those will show up later as flips or as rentals. Foreclosure numbers are finally picking up. However, traditionally banks don't foreclose on homes over the holidays. So, it is very likely to slow down again in December. That takes us out to the time frame I keep hearing, Feb/March before we start seeing a significant increase in the REOs.


Anonymous said...

Short of inventory is the biggest issue in real estate now. Without increase in inventory, nothing is positive for real estate in my views.
Gold prices

doghouse said...

some folks keep waiting for the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow
while others jump on the train, before they get left behind.

•Existing Home Sales hit 2.5 year high –

•Existing Home Sales jump a record 10.1% in October – Wall Street Journal

•Pending Home Sales up 21% for 2009 - NAR

BrianH said...

Careful what you say doghouse. Sigma might jump your butt, rant about the stock market, government conspiracies, and stupid home owners while insinuating you are stupid and or a liar. Then when you mistakenly take the time to respond he will delete his comment and pretend it never happened.

VectorzSigma said...

Whooa, from left field! I'm flattered you think about me so much.

VectorzSigma said...

Btw, doghouse is right on the money. I don't disagree with any of what he said. Why, should I? Maybe I'm missing something.

Todd said...

In case you guys missed this one:

"Judge blasts bad bank, erases 525G debt"

Basically a judge is rewarding someone who took out a 10.375% HELOC on their house in 2004 and then stopped paying on it.

When did our society start rewarding bad behavior and penalizing good behavior? The Mastercard that I have had for 12 years will soon have 18.99% interest on it and I have never been anything but resposible with the thing. So much for the 7.9% fixed APR they promised me when I first got that card.

Sigma said...

Todd: what do you mean 'when did we start?' It's been awhile.

Chrisrh said...

Found the rest of that story regarding the judge canceling mortgage debt over on the "Housing Doom" blog. Seems the bank didnt quite know how much they had loaned out to begin with.

CLIF Notes:

conference in February to seek a deal with IndyMac Bank on the $292,500 mortgage she took out in August 2004

The bank claimed a balance of $527,437 was due,

"Defendant, through Plaintiff’s duplicity, found herself to be in unique and uncomfortable position of being placed in default of the ‘agreement’ even before she had received it,"

–according to two bank letters, she owed around $285,000 as of August 2009.

The large disparity, coupled with bank rep. conduct, swung "the pendulum of credibility" heavily to the homeowner and the $527,437 mortgage has been canceled by a judge

Full Story: