Sunday, September 13, 2009

Most people are not even trying to sell

I was comparing the data from one of the foreclosure sites to listings on redfin. One of the things that struck me was how few of the homes that were scheduled for auction (foreclosure) are actually listed for sale. They don't even seem to be trying for a short sale. I'm sure some of them are hoping for modifications. But the tracts I'm looking at are fairly new and I seriously doubt few will even qualify for a loan mod.

Below is a Redfin snapshot of Victoria Grove. As you can see there are 8 homes listed in the tract.



Below is the same tract as seen using RealQuest. There are 36 homes that have NOTs filed and are awaiting there day on the courthouse steps. There's another 21 that are already REO's. I'm sure some of those are in escrow or pending and that's why they are not showing up. There's another 36 that have NOD's filed against them. That's 93 homes in that one tract that are in trouble, yet only 10 are currently listed.

Pretty much every tract I looked at was similar to this one. I did not cherry pick this tract.

25 comments:

Tyrone said...

Trying to find distressed or hidden inventory is like trying to find stars in the sky on a dark, clear night, as viewed from a remote mountain peak.

Todd said...

I've noticed a similar trend when comparing foreclosures that are listed at hotpads.com versus what I am seeing listed on Redfin for the Rancho Cucamonga area.

Chicago said...

how do you find out about these courthouse step auctions? and the process to purchase a property in this manner?

Jay & Christina said...

I have found the same thing where I live when comparing RealQuest to Redfin. Even most of the bank-owned's aren't yet listed. RealQuest is very accurate too...the bank owned houses are indeed empty.

Regarding courthouse step auctions...most services like foreclosure.com list these, but often the prices aren't set until a few days before auction, so it's hard to tell when the deals pop up. Most of the "step" auctions are way overpriced (that's why the banks usually get them back), but occasionally some deals slip through.

I too would like to subscribe to a service that would notify you when prices are set for auctions before they happen...does anyone knows of such a beast?

golfer_X said...

The banks are getting better at pricing the homes at the trustee sale. A year or two ago they always tried to get the outstanding loan balance but now they are more realistic in most cases. The biggest issue is that you never know for sure if a home is going to actually show up on the day it's scheduled. Many if not most of them get postponed over and over again. Problem 2 and the biggest one for us normal folks, is that you have to pay in full at the trustee sale. They don't give you 30 days to get a loan. You have to have the cash. You also have to research any home you plan to bid on for liens and outstanding taxes. You could be liable for these if you purchase it. Buying at the trustee sale can save you a ton, but you really have to know what you are doing.

Sigma said...

Anyone who's familiar with the Corona area - can you tell me why Eastvale is advertised as a "wanted" area to live in, compared to other parts of Corona?

Any feedback on Sycamore Creek? Good or bad?

golfer_X said...

Eastvale...is certainly NOT where I would choose to live in Corona. Of course Sycamore Creek isn't in my top ten either but I'd take it over Eastvale any day of the week. Eastvale has a better location as far as the freeways are concerned but that's about it. I rank Eastvale as the worst new area in Corona.

Hell it's not even really in Corona, it's closer to Mira Loma than it is Corona. It's unincorporated and is currently trying to become it's own city. Dunno it that will work out or not. They want to say it's in Corona because it sounds better than Mira Loma.

Empire Realty said...

Some of the reasons people do not list their homes when they are going into foreclosure is that most sellers do not qualify for a Mod or a short sale.

The banks are not entertaining the thought of modifying a loan or approving a short sale if the home owner has the ability to pay. They will only approve the mods or shorts when there is no longer the ability to pay.

That being said most people I speak with are making a business decision to walk, their home is upside down by $200k+ and from a business perspective it makes more sense to walk. take the FICO hit and wait 18 months to rebuy. If one does the math, 20 years from now the home owner will have more wealth in the walk away and buy later plan instead of riding the decade of negative equity train.

Kevin said...

how do you inspect a home before buying it at an auction?

Jeff said...

Golfer,

Sycamore Creek isn't Corona either. They are in an unincorporated area as well as Eastvale. The only reason why Eastvale is called Corona is because they use the 92880 post office.

Sigma,

If you work anywhere in Orange or LA County and choose Sycamore Creek, check out that horrible 15 North commute to the 91. That will add 20-30 minutes to your commute each way. That is the primary reason why houses are more expensive in Eastvale than Sycamore or Horsetheif. Personally I chose Eastvale over Sycamore when looking for a house. Eastvale has brand new schools in their neighborhood (which are part of CNUSD), more local amenities and closer to multiple transportation options. But again this is my personal opinion on why I chose Eastvale. You may have other priorities just like Golfer has other priorities that exclude Eastvale from his list.

I think most of the areas in the city of Corona are dumpy unless you are up close to the hills. But then you are paying close to Orange County prices.

Sigma said...

Jeff, thanks for the heads up on that. It appears the middle school is ElCerrito and High school is Centennial.

Ya, I got a taste of that ~16 mile commute from 91->15south exit indian truck. It wasn't fun. Although Sycamore does remind me a lot of where I live now in PV because of the view of the hills. I know it won't be anywhere near the same experience but gotta make sacrifices!

Sigma said...

Jeff & Golfer_X:

Can you guys inform me what it means to be in an 'unincorporated' area of Corona? I've lived in Torrance before and know that its 'uncincorporated' area of TorrancePO was a hell hole. The police was a different dept than what the main city used so I know this was a contributing factor to why TorrancePO is nowhere near as nice a city as Torrance. Is this the same situation?

James said...

. Cash flows get crimped due to delinquencies, property values and foreclosures causing the global economy to limp through difficult times.

Financing of properties is going through a huge restructuring process and the pricing should readjust to the new trends affordable by people. This transition is causing a lot of industries and job sectors to be totally wiped out.

Due to various disconnects in the industrial chain, job markets in various segments are down, property owners are sunk in debts and lenders are skeptical to lend and bail out people from the difficult situation. The income to afford to repay loans is declining highly.

Read More: http://www.housingnewslive.com

Jeff said...

Sigma,

Actually, Zillow and Redfin have the schools wrong. For junior high it is Riverheights and for high school it is Eleanor Roosevelt. Both are CNUSD and were built about 2 years ago.

As for unincorporated (non-city) vs. incorporated (city), unincorporated has the county manage the area whereas incorporated has a city council/gov't.

We have the Riverside County sheriff for law enforcement. I think they actually do a great job. Sycamore Creek would also have the sheriff for law enforcement. Many cities now contract the sheriff for their services.

We actually had some less desirable people start showing up in our parks. The residents brought it up to our parks district and they hired a dedicated sheriff deputy to patrol our parks and they have scared off those punks. So the local agencies are very responsive.

If you want to know more about the nitty gritty of Eastvale goto www.eastvaleedition.com. They post a quarterly newletter on what was discussed at the quarterly townhall meetings. These townhall meetings draw at least 100 residents each time. I've never seen this much involvement of the local community anywhere else.

I looked at other areas in the IE such as the nicer parts of Riverside or South Corona but they either had poor schools or were too far away from major employment areas. List your priorities to help you decide where to purchase.

Golfer has something against Eastvale and that is fine that he doesn't want to live there. Some of the places he lists as where he wants to buy are not desirable to me. We have different priorities. Here's a relevant story: when my father bought a home in Yorba Linda back in 1978, everyone told him he was crazy to move out there in the boonies and that it was not a nice area! He's glad he didn't take their advice. So take other people's opinions, including mine, with a grain of salt.

VectorzSigma said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Sigma said...

Jeff, thanks for the reply. Very informative stuff. My priorities are not very clear cut. It's always a balancing act but first and foremost, let's just say I'm a cheapskate although not at the risk of family safety.

Those schools you mentioned were for Sycamore? I don't mind if schools aren't the BEST but I know they won't be since it's in Corona. The kids have the bEST (literally, the best in the entire country for public system) school right now in RPV but imo education is overrated. I think realtors and mortgage brokers have shown us that among many other professions I've observed.

As long as there aren't lots of gangs in the schools, I'm ok with it. So please give me a heads up if Sycamore or any other South corona neighborhood may have this problem.

Commute is always an issue but "no sacrifice, no victory"! I am very fortunate that I only commute 2-3 a week and even then it's very flexible. Altho when I DO commute, it's to Downtown LA so I am assuming Metrolink is a the best route. Oh and yes, I will trade in one of my gas guzzlers for a Prius.

I have to say, I did like South Corona much more , as well as Tuscany Hills in Elsinore. I think I like it because it feels a lot less congested (for obvious reasons) and scenic.

Give me any further feedback, as it is greatly appreciated. Especially any interesting GOTchAS that I might regret.

Thanks in advance!

Jeff said...

Sigma, those schools I mentioned are the schools in Eastvale.

Sycamore Creek has a new elementary school but not a junior or high school. So junior and high school kids in Sycamore Creek have to be bused up to the main part of Corona (El Cerrito and Centennial). And with schools severely cutting back on busing budgets and in some cases charging extra, it can get expensive to just get your kid to school. It's like $300-$400 a year for a bus pass for Corona-Norco!

I know there is a Metrolink station in Ontario that could get you to downtown LA. So if you live in South Corona you would only have to drive to there. That won't be too bad of a commute.

I agree, the Temescal canyon area of South Corona is scenic and if I worked down there I would have considered buying there. But I enjoy my 10 minute commute from Eastvale to Ontario! I leave home at 7:50am and get to work at 8am.

From what I've heard, the Temescal canyon area is a pretty safe area.

Sigma said...

Snap! So the Corona metrolink doesn't go to Downtown?

golfer_X said...

Yea, I'm not a big fan of Eastvale, nor WAY south Corona. But that's me, check out the areas and make you're own decisions. I used to work near Eastvale and it was a fly infested windy, dusty hell hole. That might have soured my opinion of the area and maybe it's better now. I do have 2 friends that live in there and one hates it and one likes it. The primary reasons are the neighbors. The guy that hates it has crappy ghetto neighbors. So that's a wash as far as an opinion goes.

There can be problems living in unincorporated areas. Fire and Police response can be slow (depends on the area). Getting streets fixed , traffic lights, flooding issues, etc can be problematic. It just depends on the area. It seems Eastvale has a handle on that for now which is good.

Eastvale is the foreclosure capital of the Corona Valley. Go on any of the foreclosure sites and Eastvale lights up like a torch. It looks like every other house is in default. Not surprising really since most were built after 2000.

Sigma said...

golfer, I'd expect the ghetto neighbors from any part of the IE, though. I lived in RC when growing up and know that you cannot get away from that. Afterall, it is the IE. If we were rich, we wouldn't live here.

Jeff said...

Sigma, the Corona station does go to downtown too.

Jeff said...

Eastvale does have a lot of foreclosures but is turning over those foreclosures into sales. Any area that had any sizable new construction will also be foreclosureville.

Let's look at the stats. Redfin says there were 211 sales in Jun '09 in 92880 and currently only 173 for sale listings. Most of those 173 listings are short sales that probably show up in the preforeclosure/auction numbers I talk about below. So there is less than a month of supply of homes for sale listed on the MLS.

Now let's include the distressed properties that will eventually hit the market. Realquest says there are 1275 preforeclosures, auctions and bank owned homes in 92880. So if all of the homes listed on Realquest go back to the bank and end up on the market tomorrow, that is only a 10 month supply. However, all those homes will not hit the market all at once. They will show up over the next 12 months or so. So let's say the banks can foreclose and list 100 homes a month. That still isn't enough supply for current sales numbers. And the current number of sales are still at the lower end of the historical average.

A balanced real estate market has 6 months of supply. So given that we just went through the worst recession in 60 years and there is only enough future inventory in the next 12 months to supply 100 homes a month I would say the supply of inventory is getting tight, which I believe can support current prices. At least that is my assessment in 92880.

I think it is telling that Golfer posted a topic on getting close to historical pricing levels ("Are we there yet") and none of the doom and gloomers piled on him saying the market is going to drop another 30% and that he is crazy! Where are those doom and gloomers? Probably out shopping for a house!

His conclusion was that the nicer areas still are too high and I know he feels that Eastvale is too high so does Golfer lump Eastvale into the nicer areas since he views it still as over priced?

Heck, there are new homes being built and sold in Eastvale right now. I thought the builders were crazy but looking at the inventory numbers I can see why they are building again.

golfer_X said...

Agreed, you can live in Beverly Hills and have crap neighbors.

You might be rich and still have to live here (if your job is here). There are some nice areas in the IE. I actually don't mind living in the IE. After living in Scotland, Torrance and Manhattan Bch I have plenty comparisons to draw on. Each area has it's good and bad points. In the south bay the weather is nice but the roads are frickin insane. It takes a half hour or more to go anywhere. Every restaurant, bar or movie theater is packed and just try to find parking in MB.

I actually like the IE. I like the fact that I can be anywhere in about an hour. I can be in Big Bear, The beach, The wineries, or even San Diego (if I haul ass). I like the fact that I can go to a decent restaurant and not wait 2 hours. There are some great golf courses out here that are real reasonable to play compared to OC.

There are some things I don't like. I hate ghetto neighbors and I've had a few! There is a much higher chance of getting them out here. From gang bangers to rednecks that park trucks on the lawn, I've had them all. Not a big fan of the summer heat. The smog just BLOWS. Yes if you commute the traffic sucks (and I commute to the OC). Find an area you like and make the best of it.

golfer_X said...

Can't argue with much of that Jeff. Eastvale has nice homes, no doubt about it. I lump it with the more desirable areas because it's more commuter friendly (did I say nice?). I do think it has a little more air left in it's bubble though. But then again if a person is looking for a long term house I can't offer a decent argument against buying any more. I would be very hesitant though if you think you may want to move in 5 years.

That's why it is soooo important to research your purchase these days. If you buy and find out later that you hate the area, you could lose a lot if you decide to sell. I always tell people to rent in an area or at the very least live in a hotel/motel for a week or two. Get a feel for the area, the commute, and the residents. You can't tell anything about an area by visiting it a few times with a real estate agent.

Sigma said...

Golfer_X: Glad to hear that insight from a fellow South Bay'er. Like you said, the biggest deal about living here in South Bay is the LACK of ghetto neighbors. Sure, you're going to get *SOME* but far far far less than anywhere else, and I think that's why its properties are so much more $$ for the crappy lots of land that these crappy old tiny beat up houses sit on. Even up here in RPV, the people are the most intimidatingly powerful, rich, families I've ever met yet they are so incredibly respectful and do not look down on anyone. They treat people like me, who are not rich, as equals and it's pretty refreshing. I think it's the only area in the country that have people like this. Go down to the rich areas of OC and you will know what I mean. If I had the money, without a doubt, there wouldn't be any other place in the world I would live.

That being said, I don't have a lot of money. I grew up in Alta Loma/RC, and hated it. That's in the NICER parts of IE imo and it still was unbearable the countless incidents of disrespect, bad attitudes you will experience from the moment you step into the IE. I contribute that to the class of people that can afford the area (myself included) and I had vowed when I was young, that I would never return but after living in tiny properties for such a long time, I think I feel the need for a change. I want to live in a big house, nice lot, new building and pay nothing for property tax when I retire. Anyway, just my two cents but I fully agree with you about mostly everything you said. Oh and YES - Redondo Beach traffic is HELLLLL. It takes me 1 hour round trip to drop my kids off at school when I lived there, and they DON'T have a school bus system. It'll also be pretty refreshing to not have to go through that anymore. In RPV it still takes 1 hour round trip but mainly distance driving around the hill but I guess the views make it less noticeable.