Tuesday, May 19, 2009

April numbers are out, no sign of bottom!

Contrary to the media hype the median price is still dropping in the IE according to the latest sales figures from DataQuick.

Sales Volume Median Price
All homes Apr-08 Apr-09 %Chng Apr-08 Apr-09 %Chng
Los Angeles 5,016 6,425 28.1% $435,000 $300,000 -31.0%
Orange 2,166 2,391 10.4% $500,000 $380,000 -24.0%
Riverside 3,186 4,469 40.3% $295,000 $180,000 -39.0%
San Bernardino 1,667 3,130 87.8% $265,000 $138,500 -47.7%
San Diego 2,809 3,375 20.1% $400,000 $290,000 -27.5%
Ventura 771 724 -6.1% $445,000 $340,000 -23.6%
SoCal 15,615 20,514 31.4% $385,000 $247,000 -35.8%



April's median was $180k and last months median for Riverside was $187k. That makes another 4% fall in one month. The sales numbers were up slightly from last month which is normal for this time of year. In fact they should probably be a little higher than they were.

San Berdu fell from $150k in March to $137k. That's an 8% drop in one month. How much lower can it go? It also saw a increase in the number of homes sold over last month.

Here's the juicy bits from the DQ report.

A total of 20,514 new and resale houses and condos closed escrow in the six-county Southland last month. That was up 5.2 percent from 19,506 in March and up 31.4 percent from 15,615 a year ago, according to San Diego-based MDA DataQuick, a real estate information service.

Last month’s sales were the highest for that month since April 2006, when 27,114 homes sold, but were 18.2 percent below the average April sales total since 1988, when DataQuick’s statistics begin.

Foreclosure resales – homes sold in April that had been foreclosed on in the prior 12 months – accounted for 53.6 percent of all Southland resales last month. It was the seventh consecutive month in which post-foreclosure properties made up more than half of all resales.

A total of 20,514 new and resale houses and condos closed escrow in the six-county Southland last month. That was up 5.2 percent from 19,506 in March and up 31.4 percent from 15,615 a year ago, according to San Diego-based MDA DataQuick, a real estate information service.

Last month’s sales were the highest for that month since April 2006, when 27,114 homes sold, but were 18.2 percent below the average April sales total since 1988, when DataQuick’s statistics begin.

Foreclosure resales – homes sold in April that had been foreclosed on in the prior 12 months – accounted for 53.6 percent of all Southland resales last month. It was the seventh consecutive month in which post-foreclosure properties made up more than half of all resales.

The deep discounts associated with foreclosures have created stiff competition for builders, who last month sold the lowest number of newly constructed homes for an April since at least 1988.

At the same time, the number of single-family houses that resold last month was at record or near-record-high levels for an April in many of the more affordable, foreclosure-heavy inland markets. They included Palmdale, Lancaster, Moreno Valley, Perris, Indio, San Jacinto, Lake Elsinore and Victorville.

The sales picture was dramatically different in many older, high-end communities closer to the coast, where foreclosures and deep discounts are less common. Sales of existing houses remained at or near record lows for an April in markets such as Beverly Hills, Malibu, Palos Verdes Peninsula, Manhattan Beach and Pacific Palisades.

“The problem,” he continued, “is that we still face two big threats to price stability: layoffs, which can cause foreclosures across the home price spectrum, and possibly a new round of foreclosures triggered by defaults on ‘option ARM’ and ‘stated income’loans used in mid-to high-end markets. Also of concern are reports of lenders holding back for many months before making a public foreclosure filing, which we track. If job cuts remain deep and foreclosures spike, then the past few months might later be viewed as nothing more than a brief calm before the next foreclosure storm.”

4 comments:

Jesse said...

where do you get your dq data X? cuz you numbers are a lil off from what I see. San Berdu was 150K in march and dropped to 138500 in april. I think that was a significant drop, right? But excellent post as always, thank you for you blog man! you rock!

golfer_X said...

Your right last month was 150K in San Berdu. Dunno what I was looking at when I wrote that. good catch.

Allison said...

Our Realtor said he is seeing multiple offers on every property right now due to the Spring bounce and lack of inventory.

Seems like a horrible time to buy, I don't want to be in competition with all of the jokers who've decided to buy now. Glad to see prices still declining.

I bet they might even raise a little in the next few months. But there is more to come in the Fall.

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