Wednesday, January 28, 2009

I'm Back..... Dec sales report

Dec sales were better than I thought they would be but that may just be a bunch of sales being pushed through so that they fall into the 2008 tax year. January's and February's numbers will let us know if the unexpected rise was a fluke or not. The cheaper homes are selling quite well. I've been watching the low end stuff out in Perris and Moval and it's selling pretty quickly if it's priced well. Most of these sales though are investor sales so they are "one and done". Meaning they do not generate another sale from the buyer selling thier home. The upper end of the market is still pretty dead.

Here's the meat of the Dec DataQuick report.

A total of 19,926 new and resale homes sold in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties last month. That was up 19.2 percent from 16,720 for November, and up 50.5 percent from 13,240 for December 2007, according to MDA DataQuick.

Regionwide, foreclosure resales accounted for 55.7 percent of December's resales activity, up from 54.7 percent in November, and up from 24.3 percent in December 2007.

A total of 1,813 newly-built homes were sold in December, easily the lowest number for that month in DataQuick's statistics. The December average since 1988 is 4,926. In December 2005 a total of 8,723 new homes were sold.

"The builders are in a holding pattern, staying alive until the market recovers. Mortgage interest rates last month were near record lows. Of course, that doesn't mean much if the money isn't actually being lent. It does look like the spigot is being opened a little bit, at least for low-cost home purchases," said John Walsh, MDA DataQuick president.

The most active lenders to Southland home buyers right now are Countrywide, Bank of America and Wells Fargo. MDA DataQuick will report more extensively on the home financing market next month.

The median price paid for a Southland home was $278,000 last month. That was down 2.5 percent from $285,000 for November, and down 34.6 percent from $425,000 for December a year ago. The median reached $505,000 in mid 2007.

Indicators of market distress continue to move in different directions. Foreclosure activity waned in early fall but is edging higher again and remains near record levels, while financing with adjustable-rate mortgages is at an all-time low, as is financing with multiple mortgages. Down payment sizes and flipping rates are stable, non-owner occupied buying activity appears flat overall but is above-average in some markets, MDA DataQuick reported.

Los Angeles 4,430 5,848 32.0% $470,000 $320,000 -31.90%
Orange 1,731 2,580 49.0% $565,000 $397,000 -29.70%
Riverside 2,503 4,435 77.2% $355,000 $209,000 -41.10%
San Bernardino 1,518 2,862 88.5% $315,000 $180,000 -42.90%
San Diego 2,468 3,325 34.7% $430,000 $300,000 -30.20%
Ventura 590 876 48.5% $525,250 $338,000 -35.60%
SoCal 13,240 19,926 50.5% $425,000 $278,000 -34.60%

Riverside's median fell from $220k in Nov to $209k in Dec. That is a whopping 5% in one month!

SanBerdu's median fell from $185K to $180k, and that's a healthy 3% in one month.

Some of that fall is surely due to the high percentage of low end properties that are selling but none the less that's a pretty stunning monthly drop.


littletiger1969 said...

Welcome. U are sorely missed.

BrianH said...

As a owner/seller of inventory in Perris I'm experiencing something that is a good lesson learned and is going to cost me a little.

What myself and other sellers are currently experiencing is that the with the shift in prices the really small homes 1000-1200 sq. feet have really been hit much harder lately. What it looks like is that with pricing being where they are people are opting to pay a little more for a 4 bed 1600-1800 sq. footer.

Anonymous said...

Welcome back X ! It's about bloody time you got back from your cruise !

golfer_X said...

Brian, I would think with rates so low right now, non-investor buyers will opt for a better home. You can get pretty decent home now in those areas and have a payment equal to or even less than rent. Which leads me to believe that the rents will probably begin to fall. Same thing happened in the mid 90's

BrianH said...

in the area where my home for sale is I own six rentals of similar size and layout. I am getting 1275 to 1295 for my rentals. The PITI with FHA financing on my home for sale is right around 1100 at current rates.

This is simply my opinion. I think there is a major lack of rational advice to potential buyers from their realtards. Here is the deal. You could purchase a similar home as mine from anywhere between 85-110k. The lower end of that range are complete crap holes and the higher end of that range are in good enough shape to get FHA financing and move in to.

The difference is that either end of that range needs work of some kind and is not in anywhere near the condition of my home (seen here: )
So, you have an agent who tells their clients buy this fixer upper because it will only cost them 10 grand to make nice. What that realtard should be telling them is that they could purchase a junker or spend a hair more and get something that is so much better then what the buyer could ever do. I spend thirty grand on this house and people looking to purchase lower end homes in Perris wouldn't even come close to being able to afford what I did to this home. Second, the buyers are not honest with themselves because we all know that the majority of buyers have the intention of doing the work themselves however six years later that ceiling is still half scraped and those door were never finished painting.

so, i am probably going to lose five or so grand on this one. You live and learn.