Saturday, January 3, 2009
The high end is DEAD
Yes, the high end is getting crushed, and here's why.
I started looking today at how many homes over $500k were selling. Answer, not many and if you go over $600k it's almost ZERO in the IE. I checked Riverside using Redfin. I know Redfin is not the best. It shows foreclosures as sales making it a little difficult to determine legit sales vs properties going back to the lender. But it's easy to use and the numbers while not perfect are good enough for this excersise.
Riverside, I found 57 over $500k. Lets figure (conservatively) that 10% are foreclosures ( my gut feeling is that closer to 30% of those sales are ones back to the lenders). That leaves 51 sales over the last 3 months that were over $500k. So that's 17 per month! If you change the number to sales over $600k it drops to 13. But looking at those 13, I'de say a good 50% of those are foreclosure postings.
There are well over 200 listings in Riverside over $500k. So, if we are selling 17 per month, that's about a year's worth of inventory
Corona (not including Eastvale) shows 59 sales over $500k in the last 3 months. Again lets say 10% are lenders so it leaves us about the same as Riverside. Just over 17 homes per month. If you jump up to $600k there are 14 sales that show up. Again it does look like a high percentage of those are lenders getting the properties back.