Tuesday, December 16, 2008

What could you do with $373 a day??

What could you do with $373 a day? That buys a lot of Lattes, hookers and golf! It also just happened to be how much the median home lost in value per day over the last year in Riverside County. If you prefer your losses on a monthly basis that's $11,375 per month. If you need the yearly loss (for tax purposes or some such thing), it's $136,500. The median home lost over twice the median yearly family income. The good news is that the median home is getting closer to the long term ratios of price to income. It's still a little above the trend line but we're getting closer. San Berdu is basically there at $185K but Riverside still has another $40k-$50k to go.

The million dollar question is will it stop there? At the current rate of decline Riverside County will hit the long term trend line in about 4 or 5 months. San Berdu is within a month of the line, but I don't see any sign that it's stopping. In fact last month was a big increase in the price declines from the prior month. With all the bad news it's hard to believe the declines will stop in only a few months. Kinda makes you think twice about buying, huh?


Renee' said...

I have been holding out in buying (for several reasons)...gut instinct is that homes indeed will go down some more as well as interest rates making it a great combo meal to purchase a home.

David said...

I'm heading out to my aunt's house in Rancho Cucamonga this weekend, and haven't been there for about 4 years. How much of a dive did that city take? My family in the past has been pretty bullish on housing. It's gonna be interesting to see how they are now that the market crashed.

Sara said...

I tend to agree with Renee', and what we are seeing is unprecedented. Anything is possible. I wouldn't be surprized if in a year, one could get a 3000sqft house for around 200k in Corona.
Regarding Rancho Cucamonga, Zillow shows that the more established areas have dropped around 20% in the past year while newer areas around 30%. They will decline more, for sure. How can they not when much better and more established areas in Orange county have declined like crazy.

Allison said...

Don't tell me this stuff! Nah, but we need to buy. I have to get out of the place we live now and do not want to rent.

We have two offers in now, so we'll see. I know we're going to lose some money but I'm just accepting it...

Sara said...

It's a different story if you NEED to buy.
All the best!

golfer_X said...

Is there ever a time you NEED to buy? As long as there are rentals you never NEED to buy. Buying is all about wanting not needing.

We each have to balance the want vs the risk or the fear. When the want outweighs the risk/fear you buy. I'm not sure (for me) it does just quite yet. I can afford to buy the home I want now but the risk of it dropping another $100k is still just a bit higher than I am comfortable with. I can live with it dropping 10% but to have it drop 20 or 25% is just a bit out of my comfort level.

Tyrone said...

Someone needs to watch this video... again.

I Want It

I'm Not POTUS said...

Golfer "X"

For fun I tracked a passle of fancy home in the hills west of Temecula at the market top.

I am now seeing some of these listings coming back to life. With fun to watch price drops.

Look this one up as an example.
44855 Via Renaissance
Temecula, CA 92590
MLS#: T08098402

The list price was "$1,524,000" and changed to "$1,099,000"

On Dec 10 it was.
The list price was "$1,574,000" and changed to "$1,524,000"

Renee' said...

Funny video Tyrone....

Wanting v. Needing a home...hummm, mixed emotions on this.

Would I like to own a home - yes; do I NEED a home - Yes anddddddd NO.

Here's the thing - I'm not a fan of renting especially with what happened to us 8 months ago when the home we were renting in Corona went into foreclosure and we had to move. Let me tell you - this totally scared me in that even when renting you can "loose" your home. Gee - someone else got in way over their head - I chose to wait out the mortgage mess because I know what I can and can not afford and I get screwed...enough to prompt me to start rethinking the "buying of a home".

Secondly - let's not forget the tax break that a home offers. I get killed every year on taxes because I have no other write-offs other than my kids. When I had my home, I had a big tax break - it was nice - now - it's beans and rice Mon-Fri for dinner.

OSA said...

Am I the only moron that bought a house?? Is every single person on here SO SMART that they foresaw the downturn. All of you saying you looking for the bottom, are you renting???

golfer_X said...

I own a home and the tax break does not even begin to offset the maintenance I pay for. It might not be as much of an issue on a new home but on my 20 year old home, I'm freaking fixing something every weekend it seems like. Sure the tax break is nice but it must be factored in when doing a cost analysis. It's not as big a deal as many people think when you factor in the other costs of owning.

Owning makes sense currently only if the cost is comparable to renting AND you plan on staying in the home for a long time. Renting can suck, no doubt, but it sure as hell doesn't suck as bad as being upside down $100k.

Tyrone said...

Is every single person on here SO SMART that they foresaw the downturn. All of you saying you looking for the bottom, are you renting???

Put simply, YES. Out of the stock market a YEAR AGO. Saw the bubble years ago. And now I'm looking to avoid the next catastrophe which will start to hit in '09 and persist for the next few years. Prepare yourself.

BTW, the bottom probably won't be reached until 2011, but you probably already knew that.

Renee' said...

I was in an interest only mortgage 4 years ago - saw the price of my home swell like an over stuffed chorizo. I had owned 3 other homes prior and I knew that this just wasn't the normal real estate cycle - so - I sold when the getting was good and have been renting and waiting ever since.

While I agree with "X" that maintenance can be expensive on a home...I have also learned to always buy the annual Home Warranty insurance and learn to write off repairs at the end of the year to maximize my tax return. That's the only way to survive homeownership.