Wednesday, August 20, 2008

70% year over year decline

How low can prices go? Well I've said all along that most of the IE needed to fall about 50% to 65% from peak to get back to traditional values. It looks like some areas are proving me right. DataQuick has released the July Sales by zip code numbers and there are few zip codes already seeing declines of MORE than 50% and several are over 60%. And 92410 in San Bernardino is over 70%! (One Temecula zip was down 90% but it's just noise due to only 2 sales)

Ok, I will concede that most of those epic declines are in areas that are borderline ghetto. But some are in areas that are not that bad.

Here's the top 10 list (note I did not include areas with less than 10 sales).

1)
San Berdu, 92410 down 70.20% Now if you are ready for a shock, that means the median price in this zip fell from $310K last July to $92K this July. And there were 39 sales, so it's not due to a very small data set.

2)
San Berdu, 92411 Down 68.10% (22 sales)

3)
Riverside, 92501 Down 60.90% (18 sales)

4)
San Berdu, 92405 Down 56% (41 sales)

5)
San Berdu, 92404 Down 52.3% (73 sales)

6)
Rialto, 92376 Down 51.4% ( 89 sales!)

7)
Moreno Valley, 92553 Down 51.3% (114 sales!)

8)
Perris, 92571 Down 49.6% (132 sales!)

9)
Perris, 92570 Down 48.8% (34 sales)

10)
Desert Hot Springs, 92240 Down 48.2% ( 71 sales)


RIVERSIDE
SFR Price % chg $/Sq Ft
Countywide 3,251 $250 -37.00% $123
Aguanga 92536 2 $325 -9.70% $136
Banning 92220 32 $190 -32.10% $128
Beaumont 92223 70 $240 -26.20% $116
Blythe 92225 11 $173 -6.30% $137
Cabazon 92230 6 $125 -46.20% $77
Calimesa 92320 3 $202 -31.60% $226
Canyon Lake 92587 31 $260 -44.00% $145
Cathedral City 92234 63 $220 -36.70% $130
Coachella 92236 36 $184 -38.50% $104
Corona 92879 53 $305 -28.40% $169
Corona 92880 102 $390 -27.80% $132
Corona 92881 59 $358 -39.30% $166
Corona 92882 101 $341 -31.70% $164
Corona 92883 92 $340 -37.00% $150
Dsrt Hot Springs 92240 71 $128 -48.20% $86
Dsrt Hot Springs 92241 6 $170 -18.30% $96
Hemet 92543 29 $123 -41.00% $101
Hemet 92544 64 $168 -42.10% $105
Hemet 92545 55 $210 -28.50% $92
Idyllwild 92549 14 $324 -12.10% $223
Indio 92201 68 $213 -40.80% $127
Indio 92203 39 $256 -29.90% $114
La Quinta 92253 94 $347 -37.10% $176
Lake Elsinore 92530 96 $210 -38.20% $118
Lake Elsinore 92532 44 $262 -42.80% $103
Mecca 92254 1 $77 -55.00% $45
Menifee 92584 111 $250 -29.10% $111
Mira Loma 91752 26 $360 -27.90% $131
Moreno Valley 92551 69 $178 -43.10% $111
Moreno Valley 92553 114 $162 -51.30% $103
Moreno Valley 92555 85 $245 -45.60% $100
Moreno Valley 92557 113 $201 -40.00% $113
Mountain Center 92561 1 $200 -72.40% $397
Murrieta 92562 129 $301 -35.60% $114
Murrieta 92563 157 $280 -36.40% $104
Norco 92860 28 $490 -20.00% $172
Nuevo 92567 6 $268 -13.40% $136
Palm Desert 92211 30 $344 -27.70% $188
Palm Desert 92260 30 $397 -30.70% $205
Palm Springs 92262 38 $435 -2.40% $233
Palm Springs 92264 22 $535 -8.90% $250
Perris 92570 34 $213 -48.80% $101
Perris 92571 132 $175 -49.60% $97
Rancho Mirage 92270 28 $627 -27.20% $206
Riverside 92501 18 $215 -60.90% $148
Riverside 92503 110 $250 -41.30% $151
Riverside 92504 48 $212 -41.10% $152
Riverside 92505 36 $237 -40.40% $150
Riverside 92506 48 $293 -28.70% $181
Riverside 92507 24 $278 -28.80% $157
Riverside 92508 57 $340 -29.90% $136
Riverside 92509 61 $249 -33.50% $148
San Jacinto 92582 22 $210 -38.60% $90
San Jacinto 92583 70 $174 -38.90% $92
Sun City 92585 30 $215 -14.70% $111
Sun City 92586 38 $169 -17.70% $117
Temecula 92590 2 $105 -90.50% $93
Temecula 92591 54 $300 -31.80% $141
Temecula 92592 127 $330 -25.50% $134
Thousand Palms 92276 4 $154 -8.10% $105
Wildomar 92595 45 $275 -29.70% $116
Winchester 92596 54 $280 -26.30% $103

7 comments:

Paige said...

I think this has been asked before, but I can't remember.

Do the number of sales reflect homes that were sold back to the bank or just traditional (whether bank owned or not)sales to regular buyers?

golfer_X said...

These numbers are only the regular sales. They don't include the transactions where the banks are taking the homes back after a foreclosure.

BrianH said...

Recently I have purchased a couple homes where I paid basically 100k for homes that the last person paid 330k on one and 315k on the other.

These are 3/2 1100 sq. feet plus homes that will easily rent for 1250 to 1295 and the repairs were minor. Paint, carpet and good cleaning. This is the most amazing market and I now firmly believe I will meet my 100 house goal no problem.

This song plays in my head each morning when I'm eating my bowl of cereal.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-DcNPFWhbk

Rob Dawg said...

Recently I have purchased a couple homes where I paid basically 100k for homes...

How do you pay "basically" for a house? Most people paay exactly for houses. Fess up, you are not engaging in arms length closed end retail transactions are you?

nmoerbeek said...

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Norco/299-Haflinger-Rd-92860/home/6443569

Check out this norco listing. Down 450,000 dollars from peak.

golfer_X said...

There are better deals in Norco hills than that home. The kitchen is gutted on that one.

BrianH said...

RobDawg, gear down there big shifter. I'll give you the benefit of the doubt that you are not being to serious. The damn internet is so hard to judge sentiment. :)

Ok, I will list the specific price so you can be happy:

3/2 1275 sq. footer built in 1988 for 98,500

3/2 1205 sq. footer built in 1990 103,200

These are just my last two acquisitions in the last ten days. I currently have three more open escrows where I'm buying similar homes at similar prices all in the same neighborhood. So therefor I'm basically paying 100k for 1200 square foot 3 bed, 2 bath homes.

There, are we friends again?

LOL