Tuesday, March 4, 2008

So how many are selling?

Sticking with Norco for a moment I wanted to see how many homes were pending in the Norco Hills area (Zip 92860). I searched the MLS (through Catalysthomes.com) for 4+ bedroom and bigger than 2000 sq/ft. It found 192 homes for sale matching that criteria and ONLY 3 pending.

I also found another sub $500k home in this tract. It's only sub by $1k but it is under. This one is owned by a realtor. He bought it new in 2004 for $585k and it's now listed for $499k. No mention if it's a short sale. I suppose it's possible he made a down payment...nah. Now I'm not going to beat up this guy too much because the listing isn't bad by realtor standards but you'd think that after 186 days on market he could find time to fix all the spelling errors in the description. I counted 7. He has whacked the price 200k so far from his original asking. And with all the money realtors have been raking in the last few years it's hard to fathom why in the world he could not drop a few bucks and at least put some grass in the back yard. 3.5 years of ownership and it's still dirt?

And in other Norco news....

Just over the Hill in Bretton Gait there are now 2 homes that have broken the $600k barrier!

1460 Morab Way
is now listed for $595k. This one is probably a short sale. They've been dropping the price about $50k per week for the last month.

1453 Paso Fino is an REO that has been on the market forrrrrever. It started out at $950 in July and is now down to $575k. This is a nice house but very ugly from the street.


ButterMonkey said...

Funny how everyone's tastes are different. Personally, I think the house on Morab if Fugly and the one on Paso Fino is quite cute. They're still both overpriced though. I wonder what Q4 shall bring us....I'm hoping the low $300,000's LOL! :)

Anonymous said...

Finding only 3 homes in pending status is not a big surprise for obvious reasons (the market!). However, using the number of homes in pending is not the best way to determine "how many are selling?"

The better way to determine this is to look at the current number of active listings and how many have sold in the last 30 days. This gives you an idea of how long it would take to sell the remaing homes currently on the market at the current 30 day rate.

I was unable to get to the site you used, so I could not used the same dataset. Instead I searched the local MLS that I belong to.

A quick search of the 92860 area code for active SFR, 4+ bd, 2000+ sqft, gave me a total of 150 Listings.

Currently pending: 9
Sold in last 30 days: 1
Sold in last 360 days: 63

Absorption rate (30 day): 150 months (150 on market / 1 per month)
Absorption rate (12 month): 28 months.

Anything over 6 months is considered a buyer's market, around 6 months is considered a balanced market, and 4 or less is considered a sellers market. These are of course arbitrary and individual markets can vary. However, they are good yard sticks. If you keep track of this stat, then you can "predict" where the market may be heading. Experience and your gut put the stats into check.

You can tweak the stats above by changing how you calculate them. Since many of the pending properties these day go back onto the market, you may want to consider the pending sales as currently on the market until the are officially sold.

Anonymous said...

Interesting. The 1460 Morab is actually listed twice in the MLS. The first listing started in September of 2007 and listed $1.05M. I guess it didn't sell. But the agent never took it out of MLS.

The most recent listing has it listed for $595k-$645k. It shows it as a Short-Sale.

What is intersting, is that the house in the picture is different for each MLS listing. Wonder which one is the real one? The Parcel number is the same for both listings, so one of the agents is an idiot or a con artist! Possibly both.

The most recent listing shows it as a single story. Doesn't look anything like the satellite photos. Not that the sat photos are the most up to date. The listing that should have expired is showing a two story.

Anonymous said...

I noticed there were two different listings with different pictures. One shows the actual house, the other shows a 1950's shack. The agent probably put the wrong pic up, tried to fix it and istead ended up with a 2nd listing. duh...

I like to look at pendings because it lets me know how many people are "trying" to buy a house. I know more than 1/2 of those will drop out. A 12.5 year supply of homes in that zip. Wowsers!

golfer_X said...

woops, that last post was mine, if anyone cares.

ocrenter said...

golfer, that's a 64 month worth of inventory at Norco Hills!

Anonymous said...

If you go by Anon 11:30s numbers, and last months sales of ONE, with 150 in inventory then you have a 150 month supply!

Snob from Morgan Hill said...

For low 300K I would move to Norco Hill....

golfer_X said...

If it hit's high 300's I'll be moving into Norco Hills myself. I don't see it going to the low 300's but at the rate this crash is moving I'm begining to think anything is possible. The problem is that the cheaper homes are not falling nearly as fast as these high end homes. Now that some of these high end houses are down under $500k they are priced the same as 90% of the regular mid-level tract homes in Corona and Riverside. At some point people are going to just start buying these instead of the sardine can over in Eastvale.

Anonymous said...

Did anyone catch the picture of the HELOC suburban with spinners. How about those cash-refi toys in the driveway. Buahahahaha. And there are thousands of fools like that,'living large' out here in the IE. Moron on Morab st.

Anonymous said...

That would be an Excalade with some pimppin' rims on it. He also has a Porsche SUV in the back yard next to the 5th wheel. That boy has all the toys!

NEIL said...

I really enjoy reading your blog. Your sense of humor is great. Please keep it up, we need it.

beernutz said...

I wonder why the prices are falling so fast in this area and yet other areas are very sticky with the prices. Even though there are tons of bank owned stuff and nothing is selling. Some of the areas the banks do not seem to be cutting the prices like these ones in Norco. What the hell is the deal?

Briar said...

Here's a couple for a good laugh. I know, I'm fixated on Ontario. I hate commuting.
88 days on market, $450K, no price drops, "only lived in 3 months."

113 days on market, $319k, a couple price drops.

What caught my eye is that they're neighbors and they're both 1900 sq feet with 2.5 baths. They very well might be the same model with just different facades. Both detached condos.

So $319k doesn't sell in 113 days so the other guy figures his will for $450k.

Briar said...

Damn those redfin URLs.
Try these instead:

$450k: http://tinyurl.com/36n5f3

$319k: http://tinyurl.com/3b7n74

Anonymous said...

The reason why the norco hills area is falling so fast compared to others is because these houses are huge. 3000 up to 5600 square feet on half acre lots with 5+ bedrooms. Not your dorm size bedroom but huge bedrooms. Houses of this sheer size do not sell fast. Why?? because the majority of the buying population used to be single families with 2 or 3 kids. What in the world are they going to do with all this living space? I live in Norco Hills myself and some of the houses have been up for sale for more than a year because there are no buyers. Now that the housing bubble has burst, investors are waiting for prices to dwindle down while i'm here cringing and hoping the damages aren't too bloody.