Thursday, October 25, 2007

Chino Hills Dreamin'

Pricing madness and magic fruit punch are both flowing in Chino Hills. Sellers still seem to think they can add $100k per year to purchase prices even if they only bought in 2005.

4991 GLENVIEW ST, Chino Hills, CA 91709, this is a 5 bed/5 bath home of 3616 sq/ft in Sycamore Heights. It was built in 2004. I believe these sold new in the high 700s to low 800s. I can't find what this home sold last for but our seller thinks it's worth $1.15 million (reduced from 1.19 million). So he's looking to make $300-$400k for sitting in a house for 2 years. He has added a pool and some landscaping but does that add $300k+ to the value, I think not. besides the pool looks like it takes up the whole tiny back yard. The realtor does not seem to think interior shots are important. Only 4 pics and all are the outside.

So does he have a hope of selling? Well no especially since 2 of his nieghbors are priced way below him.

is the same model, but without the pool. The realtor also does not think the interior is important as he also only has 4 pics of the outside. This home is listed at $825k, making it a whopping $325k less than home #1! From the tax it looks like this person is the original owner and paid around $750. If he manages to find a buyer at his price he will escape (after fees) without losing anything other than his carrying costs.

4999 GLENVIEW ST, is a slightly smaller home, 5 bed/3bath at 3424 sq/ft. This one is also undercutting our 1st dreamer by a mile. This home looks nice and the realtor at least took a few pics. The home is empty but it does not look like an REO (yet). At $785k this home is $365k less than #1.


nmoerbeek said...

I was talking to realtor the other day about buying in chino hills. I guess their main selling point now there are the good schools. I cant afford alot and there are some at the very low end now that I could afford to buy. Like a 3 bedroom 2 bath for 350, but if you spend a 450 you can start to find 'older' mcmansions. I have lived in brea all my life and alot of people joke in my age that everyone who grew up here edventually buys in chino hills because they cant afford to buy in brea.

Do you think that Chino Hills will fall more in line with the pricing adjustment then of north orange county and not that of San Bernandino County? Or do you think that because they are surrounded buy cheaper areas like chino it will also bring there prices down?

golfer_X said...

I think, like most other local areas Chino Hills will see prices fall back to 2002 prices or there about. So it has a long way to go yet. Real estate correction move in slow motion. The last one (early 90s) took 4 years to bottom out. I think this one move quicker because of the information avavilible today in the media and here on the web. But the government could always slow it down by continuing to drop the rates. They won't stop it but they could make it drag on for many more years. It's not good you know to have a market crash in an election year! I would not consider buying until next spring at the earliest, unless some builder goes tits up and starts selling homes at 50% off. Don't laugh I saw that happen in 92'. There's no incentive to "jump in" even when prices start to go up they will move at a snails pace. The bottom will be long and flat.

golfer_X said...

Sorry for that last barely ledgible post, too much coffee this morning. My fingers and brain are not in sync yet.

nmoerbeek said...


I am very inexperienced at this stuff. 2002 prices in the inland empire would be a huge drop. I really hope so. Are there alot of new houses in the inland empire still being built?

golfer_X said...

They are still building but not nearly as much as last year. Most new tracts have started building very small phases. They build 6 or 12 homes at a time. Even so most of them are not selling and price cuts and incentives are becoming the norm. 2002 prices would put homes back into the "normal" price range that they would have been in had there been no bubble. Homes go up on average 3%-4% per year, they just barely keep up with inflation. If you go back to about 1990 and then do 4% per year you get roughly 2002 prices, or a median price of about $250k. That may seem impossible but it's not. My house in 1990 was worth about $200k and in 1995 it was worth about $110k. In December the house next door sold for $409k, but a couple of months ago a neighbor tried to sell a much nicer home for $305 (started at $395k)and could not get a bite. He finally gave up and he thinks it will be better next spring. The market is far worse than the numbers show because almost nothing is selling. The stuff that is selling is the bigger better homes. If the numbers are only reflecting the "better homes and gardens" type of home sales then you know the normal stuff is worth much less.