Tuesday, September 11, 2007

Over a 3 year supply in MoVal

The chief economist for the California Association or Realtors wants agents to refuse to list homes at fantasyland prices. She notes that in Moreno Valley only 59 homes were sold last month (July?). There are currently 2200 listed in the MLS (Not mentioned is that there’s probably another 500 new homes finished and empty plus another 1000 FSBO’s that are not in the MLS). At that rate there is over a 3 YEAR supply of homes and that’s not counting new construction and FSBOs. WOW!



jp said...

Hello, I've been looking to buy a home in the Amberhill area of Corona for nearly two years. Prices are still too high. However, there are several foreclosed properties that are nearly $1M. These have hardly any upgrades like the other homes for sale that are between $1.5 and $2.0. I'll try to post some prices after my next visit to the area.

golfer_X said...

You can add a lot of "upgrades" for $500K. Like a pool, fancy landscaping, high end tile, high end appliances and 2 new BMW 745Li's. You'de probably also have enough left over to take a couple of cruises around the world.

The price spread between sililar homes in the same area is just insane. I've also been noticing homes for sale for nearly a million with others on the same street for 600K. Looks to me like some folks got the the game real late, paid scalper prices and are now stuck. They can wish upon a falling star all they want but the REO's are going to set the comps.

I can't see paying anywhere near a million for a tract home in Corona. That's just nutz. I looked at 5000 sq/ft high end customs in Corona 5 or 6 years ago and they were less than $400k. I think those high end Corona tract homes are gonna take an epic fall.

who me? said...

I think the last time I figured the supply of 1 million plus homes in 92881 it was running about 4 years. I'd wait a few more years to buy. If the REO on Flager Ranch Road offered at 1.2 actually closes, it's a whole new world for comps in that area.

jp said...

Hello Who Me?

From what I can recall, I think there were three homes for sale on that very small street on Flager Ranch Rd. All three were empty. In that same area - Crown Ranch - there are a bunch of other homes that are also empty.

About three months ago, my family and I drove down to the area for our quarterly drive-by. There was an open house for 965 White Ranch. The house is very nice and highly upgraded. The realtor was rather cocky. He said that house was worth over $2M. I told him that I felt such a price was too high. He said he belonged to the city council and that based on the work he was doing that the area was going to only appreciate. He also said that on the other side of the street they are building $2M+ homes. I must have looked at him with incredulity because he continued that there was no way the area was going to go down in value. In my head I was thinking this guy is so full of bull, how could anyone be stupid enough to believe him. Well look at the price now. It went from an outrageous $2.1M to an absurd $1.75M (I last checked this past Tuesday, and by the way, the home is listed by a new realtor).

Regarding the 1.2M Flager house. You are right. But there is another home just like it, or maybe it's the same one that is listed at $990,900.

I have other similar stories because I've gone back to the area so many times.

Take care

golfer_X said...

There are some nice homes in that area but I don't think any of them are worth anywhere near a million bucks.

We've been looking around woodcrest and poly high areas of Riverside. I like the new Stellan Ridge homes by Pulte. They are pricey too but the've dropped the price on some models over 200k in the last 6 months. I think they are still way overpriced though. We looked at similar homes in 2002 before my wife went back to school and they were in the high 300s and low 400s. I'll give them some appreciation for 5 years but not 100%-150%.

The area of Corona you guys are looking looks nice too. I just hate the traffic, getting on and off the freeways from that area is a royal pain in the ass. Over a million is still nuts for this area unless the home is really "a mansion". Not a McMansion but a real honest to goodness estate. Most of them aren't, they are just big tract homes or semi customs on big lots. Those would have been 400k-500k 5 years ago.

I still think the high end will take a big hit out here. I remember the early 90s crash and the high end homes out here took a major beating in that bust. They fell at least 10% more than the average or low end homes did.