April Sales by Zip Code

Here's the Aril Sales by zip code for Riverside County.

RIVERSIDE	zip	SFR	Price	% chg
County		2,219	$284	-30.90%
Aguanga	92536	1	$277	-31.90%
Banning	92220	30	$218	-22.30%
Beaumont	92223	47	$248	-28.70%
Blythe	92225	6	$188	2.50%
Calimesa	92320	7	$275	n/a
Canyon Lake	92587	19	$280	-36.00%
Cathedral City	92234	49	$258	-23.80%
Coachella	92236	18	$229	-23.70%
Corona	92879	31	$345	-27.40%
Corona	92880	86	$400	-34.90%
Corona	92881	31	$425	-11.80%
Corona	92882	57	$365	-33.00%
Corona	92883	43	$345	-30.60%
Dsrt Hot Springs	92240	47	$157	-42.10%
Dsrt Hot Springs	92241	4	$153	-25.60%
Hemet	92543	27	$129	-46.40%
Hemet	92544	48	$170	-44.30%
Hemet	92545	54	$210	-35.40%
Idyllwild	92549	9	$195	-55.50%
Indian Wells	92210	20	$1,325	22.10%
Indio	92201	66	$248	-30.40%
Indio	92203	40	$300	-23.00%
La Quinta	92253	84	$570	-9.60%
Lake Elsinore	92530	35	$233	-35.70%
Lake Elsinore	92532	56	$295	-35.50%
Menifee	92584	73	$252	-34.70%
Mira Loma	91752	24	$420	-31.70%
Moreno Valley	92551	34	$229	-36.40%
Moreno Valley	92553	51	$168	-54.10%
Moreno Valley	92555	60	$267	-42.30%
Moreno Valley	92557	43	$235	-41.30%
Murrieta	92562	86	$320	-37.90%
Murrieta	92563	110	$310	-36.10%
Norco	92860	19	$520	-18.10%
Nuevo	92567	2	$241	-52.60%
Palm Desert	92211	47	$353	-12.80%
Palm Desert	92260	20	$400	-40.70%
Palm Springs	92262	39	$375	-24.20%
Palm Springs	92264	21	$615	-14.90%
Perris	92570	30	$270	-34.50%
Perris	92571	54	$210	-37.80%
Rancho Mirage	92270	39	$538	-21.00%
Riverside	92501	10	$263	-32.70%
Riverside	92503	52	$285	-35.90%
Riverside	92504	28	$225	-37.90%
Riverside	92505	19	$229	-42.60%
Riverside	92506	34	$283	-33.50%
Riverside	92507	18	$281	-24.20%
Riverside	92508	31	$379	-24.90%
Riverside	92509	33	$260	-38.80%
San Jacinto	92582	21	$229	-44.00%
San Jacinto	92583	33	$203	-33.80%
Sun City	92585	24	$250	-31.50%
Sun City	92586	28	$165	-25.20%
Temecula	92590	5	$810	-12.40%
Temecula	92591	45	$314	-29.40%
Temecula	92592	98	$315	-30.70%
Thermal	92274	1	$85	-74.20%
Thousand Palms	92276	1	$295	-13.90%
White Water	92282	3	$173	-48.40%
Wildomar	92595	35	$310	-24.80%
Winchester	92596	30	$292	-31.90%

Some banks STILL don't get it, most sellers still don't get it...

Most of the banks have accepted the fact that the value of those REPO's ain't what they were hoping it would be. Most of the REO's hitting the market are priced to reflect this fact. But there are still some banks (or brokers) that are in serious denial. While checking the new listings today I ran across these two REO properties in Greer Ranch in Murrieta.

Home number one is 27146 Red Maple St. This home is a 4 Bedroom, 3 bath home that is 3532 sq/ft is size. Judging from the poor pictures the house is nothing special, just an average tract home. The home was purchased new in Nov 2004 for $588K and it looks like it went back to the lender in March for $659K. Obviously the last owner used the home to finance his high rolling life style. Our "poor" lender thinks they are dumping this place at $610K ($173 sq/ft), Hey that's $50K less than they are into it! It must be a deal, right?



Unfortunately for them a $50K loss is wishful thinking. They are looking at a $250K loss (or more) in all likelihood. As an example of what the should have priced this house at lets look at another new listing just a block or two away. 26727 Chamomile St is a much bigger house with 5 bedrooms and 4.5 baths tucked into 4295 sq/ft. This home sold new in 2005 for $634K, then again in June 2006 for $778k. This one has also gone back to the lender but this lender is more in touch with the market. This home is listed for $410K ($95 sq/ft)



Does bank number one really think anyone is going to buy that house at $173 sq/ft when the can go down the street and get a newer, larger home for $95 sq/ft? Most of the homes in this tract are listed between $100 sq/ft and $120 sq/ft. How a broker and/or a lender can put a home on the market at $173 sq/ft is beyond me.


Now let's look at a couple of F'd home owners. Most home sellers are still in major denial, especially if they bought in the last few years. It's hard to admit you F'd up and it's even harder to throw in the towel and destroy your credit. But the facts are the facts and no amount of rubbing you lucky rabbits foot will get a home sold for 2006 prices. Many sellers are still listing the homes at wishing prices and a few like the one below (on Nuthatch) are just complete morons listing homes at the price they do.

Remember the days when prices made sense and similar homes in similar areas would all be priced within a few percent of one another. Even if one house was totally decked out with pool and fancy landscaping the premium for that home would only be 10% or 15% more than the average homes. Today's market is so screwed up that similar homes can have wildly different asking prices, especially if one is a REO or short sale.

19285 Nuthatch St in Perris and 18774 Malkoha St are examples of this. These are identical homes in the same tract. One home is all tricked out with landscaping and a pool and the other is still looking a little bare in that department. The nice house was originally listed for an unbelievable 1.1 million (in Perris, WTF dude??), Now it's down to $999k ( oh yea, that's better). Someone should call this guy and tell him his house is in PERRIS!.

The other home (Malkoha) is a short sale listing and it is priced at $380k (and it's not the cheapest house in the tract!). Granted it needs some landscaping and it does not have a pool but it's 62% less than the other house and for that extra $619K you could put in a pool, landscaping and a couple of Ferrari's.

We could sure make the inventory numbers look a lot better if all the wishing listings were removed. I have noticed lot's of them have been dropping off over the last few months but there's just so many of them to weed through when you are looking. I just wish the agents would drop those stupid listing and remove all the useless clutter from the MLS.

The NAR can't do math

The Press Enterprise is reporting that housing affordability is soaring due to the rapid fall in prices brought on by the foreclosure crisis. Even so the IE still ranks as the 19^th least affordable metro area (down from the 14^th).

According to the report 57% of Riverside county households can afford the median entry level home of $244k. According to the article you need an income of $46k for qualify to buy that $244k house, assuming a 10% down payment and a 5.65% loan. These numbers come straight from the National Association of realtors by the way.

First of all, how many entry level buyers making $46k per year have $25k in the bank for that down payment? I’m sure a few do but most people I know making $46k per year can’t even afford to buy good beer. Second, where can you get a 5.65% loan? And finally how is buying a home that is 5.3 times your income a good idea. When did the National Association of Realtards start recommending spending 5.3 times your income.

When we bought our first home in 1988 our income was about $45k. The home (we just barely got into) cost $110k. Granted the interest rate was 10.5% for the first few years so the payments were higher than they would be today, but never the less we just made it. And after paying the mortgage and other bills we had very little left at the end of the month. Back then gas was a buck a gallon, a new car was $10k to $15k and you could fill up a shopping cart at Vons for $100. So tell me how is a person making $46k going to live if they buy a $244k home. After taxes they are probably bringing home around $3000 to $3200 per month The monthly payment with tax and insurance would run at least $1500 (assuming you could get a 5.65% loan and a low tax rate). That’s at least $500 a month more than my payment was back in 88. With the added expense of food, gas, clothing, utilities and such today there is NO WAY you can swing that on $46k per year unless you eat to ramen and walk to work. List your expenses and see if you can live on $3k per month

It's amazing that the NAR is still trying to get people to buy more than they can afford. Have they learned NOTHING? That sort of thinking is a large part of the reason we are in this mess. People should buy what they can afford with a safety factor for emergencies. The old 2.5 times your income is still a good number! Using that ratio if you make $46k, you should not spend more than $115k. We obviously still have a way to go.

This weeks median listing prices

The sales numbers might be looking a little better but the listing prices are still falling faster than GWs approval rating. With this weeks dive all three percentile's are now under $400k and the low end is getting very very close to cracking the $200k barrier.

Trend	05/19/2008	1 month	3 month	6 month	12 month
Median Price	$289,000	-3.6%	-12.3%	-20.8%	-29.5%
Inventory	46,779	-2.4%	-5.8%	-12.8%	-5.6%

Date	Inventory (SFH + Condo)	25th Percentile	50th Percentile (Median)	75th Percentile
05/19/2008	46,779	$208,900	$289,000	$399,900
05/12/2008	47,403	$210,000	$292,500	$402,500
05/05/2008	47,960	$215,000	$299,000	$410,000

Data from housingtracker.net

April report from DataQuick

The April report from Data Quick has finally been published. It’s a little better than most of the recent reports but it still shows an overall decline in sales year over year for nearly every county. The one exception is Riverside. It managed a slight increase mainly due to the sales of low end properties in the outer areas. A nearly 30% decline in median price in the last 12 months is getting a few knife catchers off the fence. Here’s the highlights of the report.

La Jolla, CA--- Southern California home sales surged last month to the highest level since August as bargain shoppers took advantage of price slashing. Although some higher-end costal markets also posted gains, the swell in transactions mainly reflects more sales of homes under $500,000 in inland areas where depreciation and foreclosures have been greatest, a real estate information service reported.
A total of 15,615 new and resale houses and condos sold in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties in April. That was up 21.9 percent from 12,808 the previous month but down 19 percent from 19,269 in April last year, according to DataQuick Information Systems.
Sales from March to April have risen on average 1.2 percent since 1988, when DataQuick's statistics begin. Although last month's sales total was the highest for any month since August 2007, when 17,755 homes sold, it was still the weakest April since April 1995, when 15,303 homes sold, and the second- lowest April on record. Last month was 38 percent below of the April average of 25,311 sales.
Post-foreclosure homes continued to play a major role in the Southland market. Of all the homes that resold in April, 37.5 percent had been foreclosed on at some point in the prior 12 months, compared with a revised 35.8 percent in March and 4.6 percent a year ago. Across the six-county area, "foreclosure resales" ranged from 26.9 percent of resale activity in Orange County to 52.7 percent in Riverside County.
Zip codes showing relatively large annual gains in sales of existing houses included those in San Jacinto and Lake Elsinore in Riverside County, Victorville in San Bernardino County, Lake Forest and Anaheim in Orange County, Lancaster in Los Angeles County and Chula Vista in San Diego County.
The median price paid for a Southland home was $385,000 last month, unchanged from March but down 23.8 percent from the peak median of $505,000 in April 2007. That peak was reached several times last spring and summer. Last month was the first in eight months that the median did not decline on a month-to-month basis.
Indicators of market distress continue to move in different directions. Foreclosure activity is at record levels, financing with adjustable-rate mortgages is at a six-year low. Down payment sizes and flipping rates are stable, non-owner occupied buying activity is increasing, DataQuick reported.

Signs of the times

Over the last couple of weeks I've noticed more and more signs from our slowing economy. Just yesterday I was filling up the gas tank ($84!) when a car pulled in across from me. It was a nice Chevy Avalanche with pimpin rims driven by a young Latino gal. She hops out and runs credit card number 1 through the card reader.....no dice. Back to the purse she goes for credit card number 2....nope, that one doesn't work either. Back to the purse, there must be one more in here somewhere. She tries a third card and cannot get that one to go through either. Then she opens the door and I think she asked her man for some cash. That started a short argument during which she hopped into the car slammed the door shut and then squeeled off out of the gas station.

On Thursday I visited Moss Bros. Dodge to take my wifes car in for some service. The place was a ghost town! There were NO customers except people getting cars serviced. I strolled through the showroom and briefly through the lot. There were zero people working deals in the showroom and no one looking at cars. On Saturday afternoon we went and picked up the car and it was the same. I saw one couple working a deal in the showroom and another looking at cars in the lot. That was it, 2 couples looking on a Saturday afternoon. The other dealers didn't look much busier either, the whole auto mall was dead.

Anyone else notice the freeway is lighter these days?

Many of the local golf courses have lowered their fees... about time too!

My favorite sushi bar must be hurting. Every time I've been in lately it's only been half full (or less). We go every week and it's been like this for the last few months.

Signs of the times I'm afraid!

How low can ya go?

How low can the prices go?

Just a few months ago I wrote a post about the first homes to crack the $100 s/f barrier. That was back in mid October 2007. So here we are only 7 months later and I am now finding homes under $70 s/f and I even found one listed under $60 s/f. Granted most of these homes are out in Hemet, San Jancinto, Wildomar, Perris and Lake Elsinore but those price declines are going to spread inward. Now don;t go getting all giddy thinking about a $60 s/f home in Chino Hills. That's probably no going to happen. What you might expect is similar percentage declines. Many of these homes are posting declines of around 60% from peak (or more). Let's take a look at a few of these.

The first one has got to be a record breaker. 22 Plaza Avilla in Lake Elsinore. This home is a 4 bed, 2.5 bath, 3208 s/f on a 9600 s/f lot. The home sold new in 2004 for $465k. It was flipped right at the peak in Oct 2006 for $650k. The bank got the home back in Feb. They listed it for $360k and have been dropping the price ever since. It's currently listed for $184,300! If it sells for that, the loss would be $465,700, or a 72% loss!!
Now if that's not some kind of record loss, I dunno what is.... (Currently it's listed for $57 s/f)



This one is not quite as impressive as the last but the loss is still substantial. 343 Pamela ct. in Hemet was built in 2002 just as the market was catching fire. It is a 5 bedroom, 3 bath home, 2921 s/f on a 7400 s/f lot. It sold new for $199,500. It sold again in May 2005 for $397k, then again in Jan 2007 for $500k. The bank took the home back in April and it's now listed for ($63 s/f) $184,900 or just less than it sold for when new . If it sells at asking the loss will be $315k or 63% in just over a year.



1873 Rosemont Cr in San Jacinto is our next example. This one appears to be a victim of the Home Equity ATM. This home is a 4 bedroom, 2.5 bath, 2258 s/f on a 6500 s/f lot. The home sold new in 2004 for $255,500. It was lost to the bank very early in the crash, in fact this one was lost before the crash really started. The bank took this home back in April 2007 for $342K. Quite a bit more than the original purchase price. So the owners obviously sucked out some cash.
The bank listed the home WAY back in June 2007 for $324k. They have been chasing the market down ever since. After 7 price drops they are now down to $150K ($66 s/f). I think they might even get it sold now! The loss is probably higher than I will estimate due to the high probability of a 2nd lender . If we go by the REO amount this home has lost $192k or 57%.

Lake Hills cracks through the $400k barrier

Lake hills in western Riverside has already seen some amazing price declines, especially in the high end stuff. The mid-priced homes have actually been kinda sticky lately with most of them lurking in the high 400s and low 500s. That has changed this week with the listing of 16447 Village Mdws.

16477 Village mwds is a 3 bed 3 bath home, 3455 sqft in size and it sits on a nice big .4 acre lot (much of it is a hill though). This home sold new in Feb of last year for $685k. It has already gone back to the lender so the purchaser obviously did not make very many payments (if any). The house just listed today for $389k. That is a loss of nearly $300k (43%) in a little over a year.

I imagine that this will get a flurry of offers since it is the first sub-$400k listing (there is another one but it's a short sale so I don't count it). Even at that price this is probably still at least $100k too high if you go by comparable rental values though. The taxes are also very high as are the HOA fees. Regardless someone, probably multiple someones will hop off the fence and fire offers off at this one. I bet it does not last 2 weeks.

What does it take to buy this home using traditional amounts. Lets say it sells over asking for $400k. With 20% down that means you have a loan of $320K. Assuming you have stellar credit and can get a loan at 6.5% your payments will be 2022/mo, add in tax pf $600/mo and HOA of $190/mo and another $150/mo for insurance you get a monthly payment of nearly $3000.

If you go by the old standard of 28% rule that would mean you will need to make over $86k per year to afford this home and that is with 20% down. If you only have 10% down then you need to make $98k per year to hit the 28%. And that is 28% using just the mortgage (no tax, HOA or insurance factored in).

April Foreclosure report

Foreclosure Radar has released the April foreclosure report and as expected the numbers continue to get worse and worse. I found the report on Mr Mortgage,s website, his site is pretty funny and his youtube videos are well worth a watch

Notice of Defaults (NOD = pre-foreclosures) were up 2.6% to a record high of 44,100 from 42,700 last month.

Notice of Trustee Sales (NTS or NOT = Foreclosure Notices) were up 7.8% to a record high of 28,892. That is more that 1000 a (business) day! Just think about that for a second. More than 1000 people a DAY are getting foreclosure notices in California. With a very large percentage of those received by residents of the IE (the IE has the 2nd highest foreclosure rate in the state, heck we could be number 1 by now).

Foreclosure Sales at Auction jumped 44% from March to April. (note this is the homes being sold at the Trustee sale, most go back to the bank. this is not a 44% jump in real estate sales). Of those 97.75% of the homes failed to sell at auction and went back to the lender.

And now for the Local Numbers.

San Bernardino County saw a 94 percent increase in foreclosure-related filings and Riverside County saw a 115 percent increase ( default notices, auction sale notices and bank repossessions) compared to a year earlier.

Last month, Riverside and San Bernardino counties together had 14,081 foreclosure-related filings, one for every 99 households. In April there were 2,457 homes repossessed in Riverside County, a more than 20-fold increase from 119 in April 2007, while 1,655 homes were repossessed in San Bernardino County, up more than six-fold from 250 a year earlier.

Homes lost to foreclosure were 20 times higher this April than last April in Riverside! No matter how you slice it, that is a shocking increase.

Another peek into Dos Lagos

Dos Lagos is another one of those trendy gated golf course communities so popular in South Corona. It was one of those tracts that was just inundated with flippers trying to make that big score. Some managed to pull it off and quickly flipped homes, some making nearly $500k in a matter of months. But those that did not get out quickly are creating a wave of REO properties that are taking prices down faster keg at a frat party.



For example there is 3041 Andana, which is a 4 bed, 3 bath home, 3414 sqft in size. The original selling price was not listed but these sold for between $800k and $900k depending on lot premium and upgrades (some were quickly flipped for up to 1.4 million). This home went back to the lender and they have listed it for $511,900 ( that's just an odd price...). There are several other similar homes and some slightly larger for sale in this tract and most are lender owned. Without knowing the original selling price it's hard to speculate on the loss. The tax value is $860k so the selling price must have been close to that. That puts the loss around 40% in two years.

There are smaller homes in the Dos Lagos tract too, but they are fairing no better. 4371 Altivo ln is a smaller home. It's only 2206 sq/ft and has 4 beds and 3 baths. This home sold new in late 2006 for $640k. The lender took this one back in early Feb and has it listed for $399k. A loss of $240k or 38%. But there is little chance of them getting it. Just a couple of streets over the same model home is for sale at 2939 Wild Springs for $287K. It says it needs a few repairs but you can do way more than a few repairs for the $112k price difference.

This for $399k?

Or this for $287K??

This weeks Median Asking Price

The median asking price for Riverside/Sanberdu took another plunge this week dropping $6500. In addition, the low end median and the high end median both took a healthy dive. The inventory has been steadily dropping for the last few months. I think most of that drop is due to the dreamers pulling their homes from the market.

Trend	05/12/2008	1 month	3 month	6 month	12 month
Median Price	$292,500	-2.5%	-12.7%	-20.7%	-28.7%
Inventory	47,403	-2.5%	-1.6%	-12.2%	-3.2%

Date	Inventory (SFH + Condo)	25th Percentile	50th Percentile (Median)	75th Percentile
05/12/2008	47,403	$210,000	$292,500	$402,500
05/05/2008	47,960	$215,000	$299,000	$410,000

Open thread, Lets' hear your opinion

Golfer-X is taking the family on a cruise for the next week. Rather than having a week of silence, please let's hear what you all think of the current market. What are you seeing in your area?

Have fun, see you in a week!