Sunday, May 9, 2010

Bubble street


A few weeks ago I went to look at a house and noticed nearly every single home on this particular cul-de-sac had a sign in the lawn. I forgot about it until this weekend when I was in the area again. I checked redfin to see how many of the homes were for sale and how many had sold since the bubble popped. There are twenty homes on this street 12 of them are for sale or have sold recently.

This tract is the Bridle Creek development by Lyon Homes in Woodcrest. Here's the details of the 12 homes that are for sale or have sold. I wonder if the remaining 8 homes will stick it out. Some could have been cash buyers so they may stick it out.

17892 Glen Hollow, Bought new for $773k, sold for $410K
17864 Glen Hollow, Bought new for $699k, sold for $480k
17808 Glen Hollow, Bought new for $1.1M, sold for $422k
17780 Glen Hollow, Bought new for $720k, pending at $415k
17724, bought for $787k, sold for $446k and is now pending again
17696, bought for $750k, pending at $429k
17619, bought for $698k, sold for $398k
17647, bought for $866k, sold for $430k
17675, bought for $647k, sold for $325k (this was probably another pocket listing)
17703, Bought for $734, pending at $415k
17815, Bought for $791, sold for $430k
17843, bought for $813, sold for $415k

Now for the "mathy" bit.... The average sales price for the new homes was $781K, total for the 12 was $9,378M. The homes are now averaging $417k with the 12 adding up to $5,015M. That is a loss of $4.363M on just these 12 homes (the average loss is 47%).

The better deals were the more recent ones, the higher sales prices are from at least a year ago. These are big homes on big lots so don't think these sales prices are high for Riverside. These are not you average tract homes. But none the less you can see what the effect of the bubble is on the newer tracts. Tracts built near the peak are going to see most of the homes turn over. The good news is that once they homes turn over they should turn into nice communities again.

2 comments:

Todd said...

Speaking of maps...

The article "Mapping Mortgage Fraud in Boulder County, Colorado" was featured in one of the trade newsletters that I receive at work and I thought that some of you might find it of interest. You can read it here:

http://www.esri.com/industries/localgov/community/newsletter.html

http://www.esri.com/library/newsletters/govmatters/govmatspr10.pdf

Teacher said...

Just wanted to say that I enjoy the blog.

Just wait on the other 8 houses. I bet within a couple of years they'll walk away too.

I know several people like myself who bought at or near the peak. Some have already walked away and the rest have just ignored the prices and are bad at math. Eventually they may realize how bad off they are and will walk.