Are the flood gates cracking open? In the last 3 days there have been more new listings post in my search area than there was in the last month. I'm hoping this is an indication that the banks are finally starting to release that inventory they are supposed to be sitting on. I will contain my enthusiasm for a while just to see if this is a fluke week or not.
22 comments:
. I will contain my enthusiasm for a while just to see if this is a fluke week or not.
Growing inventory could be a supporting indicator for California bankruptcy.
I'm containing my enthusiasm until I'm convinced the bond market and US dollar are past the point of total collapse.
I keep waiting for this bear trap to snap shut. I see nothing to justify the increases of the last couple of months in the market. GM goes BK, the market goes stratospheric?? There's so much excess oil sitting around they have no where to keep it except in tanker ships, yet oils up to $68 wtf is going on. I've given up trying to figure this market out. It's so obviously fixed I can't decide if I want to even bother with it any more.
Here is an interesting article. A few friends and I were discussing this very thing a year ago.
Jim Rogers: S&P Could Go To 50,000
With the recent strenth in commodities, the excess money could very well be finding it's way right there, and I've seen several articles hinting at this. I've been watching RJI and RJA to diversify some 401K funds and I'm sorry I didn't pull the trigger. But things are just too volatile and as you say, too fixed.
I should add, while we discussed the market shooting way up due to massive money injections, we concluded it would start to rise, but then get driven back down... way down. In the end, it's best not to play.
Open the flood gates! Ive been looking at buying rental property in Victorville for the last several weeks.(yeah I know all the renters are buying! I've made sure I can afford for the house to be empty - beside all the people being foreclosed on have to live somewhere!)I was surprised to find most properties have 3 or 4 offers on them and are going for more than the list price. I've seen several properties listed at 80,000 accept offers at 95,000. Realitor says this is due to lack of inventory and he expects the banks to release more properties around june 19th. I submitted an offer on a property but Im not hopeful it will be accepted as it was on the low side. We'll see what happens in the next few weeks.
If you consider that this is the usual prime time for listings and sales (kids are out of school, families are freerer to move), probably not a floodgate of foreclosures. Additionally, there have been reports of inventories falling to closer-to-normal amounts. Think that those who wait much longer might be disappointed (and no, I am not an RE agent).
"I was surprised to find most properties have 3 or 4 offers on them and are going for more than the list price."
It appears that there's demand, but in reality these are the same buyers putting offers on 3-4 proprties simultaneously.
"Think that those who wait much longer might be disappointed (and no, I am not an RE agent)."
PLEASE!!! Have you seen the preforeclosure numbers?
Here's yet another article commenting on the rise in the stock market and the inflationary pressure being applied everywhere...
All Markets Suggesting Hyperinflation
I'm not necessarily in the hyperinflation camp, but I do believe we have some serious inflation awaiting us, at a minimum.
while there are quite a few new properties popping up, i've seen a lot of the SAME properties show up that were on the listings several months ago, etc.
a lot of people not securing financing, or appraisals not lining up and it becomes a buyer vs. bank stalemate. it's been a pretty long run for us through escrow with all of the heightened scrutiny.
I searched MRMLS for new listings and found the following in both San Bernardino and Riverside counties.
Approx. 250 new REO and 175 Short lisings in each county from 6/28 - to today.
I also found about 2.5 times that in REO's and Shorts that went pending for the same time period.
Keep in mind they still need to close them and last time I looked only 60% close.
Take care!
RJH
Last weekend at the REDC auction Adelanto and Victorville homes were blowing out consistantly at $30-$40 a square foot.
Feels like buying time to me.
Take care!
RJH
IMHO, those REDC 'auctions' are frauds. I keep seeing those same houses still available as foreclosures after they 'sold' at an REDC auction (I attended an 'auction'). I wouldn't put much faith in what goes on there. No more than I would in some of those rug~merchant auctions withe brand new 'antiques' and 'semi~antique' area rugs from the home town of Ali~baba.
I guess I'll be the first to say it! I think we're beginning to repeat the Dot Com Bubble and Bust cycle again.
Instead of just letting the market fall, the next bubble was formed (Massive Government Spending). Housing will continue to fall just like parts of technology that never recovered! The government hyperinflated another sector as a means to prop up the economy. Give it a few years, we will have another recession.
Everyone thats been waiting to buy is now rushing into real estate to buy. I still think its way too earily but dont listen to me just go ahead. I'll be waiting for a better deal years from now after prices stop falling!
Two points, I have or helped other pick up at least 8 homes from REDC, sure they, the lender, come back with crazy counter offers 1/2 the time but finally they are taking real offers. I personally have bought two homes which now get me a $500 a month cash flow, both bought around or less than $50 a square foot. 9202 Citrus D in Fontana. rented at $1,100 a month.
Second, I agree the government is screwing the pooch. We are going to have Carter style inflation in the next few years. There is no better hedge for inflation like tangibles, homes and metals. Look at gold going through the roof when the stock market is booming. We are in for a wild ride, load up on high cashflow homes and catch the wave.
PLEASE!!! Have you seen the preforeclosure numbers?
Yeah, so what? If you have done any shopping for a home in the last year, you would find that anything worth while is usually getting multiple offers. And like it or not, things are moving. They aren't sitting on the shelf like they did a year ago. They might not be selling as rapidly as a "normal" market (whatever that is) but they are selling. Are you aware that people from other places come here and pay cash for things? People who hem and haw about things instead of going after what they want in life are usually unhappy about more than just not owning a home.
I know there are people who somehow expect to get a mansion for $35 a sq.ft. but they are the same as the delusional sellers.
CG,
And jobs are secure, taxes are decreasing, and my kitten speaks French.
Wow only $500 cash flow, that doesn't leave a lot of room if you need to lower rent. You know your renters will ask you to lower your rent in the next few years right? I'm going in to my landload in the next few days to do just that or I'm walking.
Sara said...
CG,
And jobs are secure, taxes are decreasing, and my kitten speaks French.
Its ok, I didn't need any more proof you live in a delusional world but thanks anyway.
Your statement "those who wait much longer might be disappointed" is the epitomy of delusion. Ignoring foreclosure numbers by a mere "so what?" shows you live in lala land. The craze with multiple offers is nothing new. It has been going on for the past couple of years. Despite this, prices have been dropping. So you have been PROVEN delusional, my dear, not I. The fact is it's too risky to buy now in desirable IE areas. It's a gamble.
Telling people they'll be "disappointed" if they wait is irresponsible at best.
There wouldn't be multiple offers if the majority of the homes on the market were priced properly. The reason there's multiple offer is that only the REO properties are priced right. So every potential buyer is trying to get one of those. Sales numbers are still below normal, prices are still falling, foreclosure numbers are rising, unemployment is the highest it's been for decades.
No one will miss the boat by waiting. The market is simply returning to normal. It's not going to suddenly turn back into another giant bubble market. Once it returns to normal there will actually be more to choose from because most of the homes will be priced correctly. That point is still a couple of years away. Delusional sellers are slow learners...
Anyone buying a a home now needs to be prepared to the value of that home to be the same a decade from now.
Yup, no one will loose by waiting, real estate does not bounce it plops and sits flat for 24-36 months at the bottom.
As for the $500 positive cash flow on each property, rents would have to fall 50% before I got to break even on these properties. Homes are cash flos, I can't get return on my money like that anywhere in the world not even if I had invested with Madoff.
Anyime you can buy less than 50% of building costs you are a winner, prices will never go to zero as long as building costs are $100 a square foot, also the market will recover in the next decade to at least have a little profit above building costs.
Buy where it makes sense!
Take care!
RJH
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